Experimental Design for Sensitivity Analysis of Simulation Models

This introductory tutorial gives a survey on the use of statistical designs for what if-or sensitivity analysis in simulation.This analysis uses regression analysis to approximate the input/output transformation that is implied by the simulation model; the resulting regression model is also known as metamodel, response surface, compact model, emulator, etc.Regression analysis gives better results when the simulation experiment is well designed, using classical statistical designs (such as fractional factorials, including 2 k-p designs).These statistical techniques reduce the ad hoc character of simulation; that is, these techniques can make simulation studies give more general results, in less time.experimental design;simulation models;sensitivity analysis;regression analysis

Simulation Experiments in Practice: Statistical Design and Regression Analysis

In practice, simulation analysts often change only one factor at a time, and use graphical analysis of the resulting Input/Output (I/O) data. The goal of this article is to change these traditional, naïve methods of design and analysis, because statistical theory proves that more information is obtained when applying Design Of Experiments (DOE) and linear regression analysis. Unfortunately, classic DOE and regression analysis assume a single simulation response that is normally and independently distributed with a constant variance; moreover, the regression (meta)model of the simulation model’s I/O behaviour is assumed to have residuals with zero means. This article addresses the following practical questions: (i) How realistic are these assumptions, in practice? (ii) How can these assumptions be tested? (iii) If assumptions are violated, can the simulation's I/O data be transformed such that the assumptions do hold? (iv) If not, which alternative statistical methods can then be applied?metamodel;experimental design;jackknife;bootstrap;common random numbers;validation

Simulation Experiments in Practice: Statistical Design and Regression Analysis

In practice, simulation analysts often change only one factor at a time, and use graphical analysis of the resulting Input/Output (I/O) data. Statistical theory proves that more information is obtained when applying Design Of Experiments (DOE) and linear regression analysis. Unfortunately, classic theory assumes a single simulation response that is normally and independently distributed with a constant variance; moreover, the regression (meta)model of the simulation model’s I/O behaviour is assumed to have residuals with zero means. This article addresses the following questions: (i) How realistic are these assumptions, in practice? (ii) How can these assumptions be tested? (iii) If assumptions are violated, can the simulation's I/O data be transformed such that the assumptions do hold? (iv) If not, which alternative statistical methods can then be applied?metamodels;experimental designs;generalized least squares;multivariate analysis;normality;jackknife;bootstrap;heteroscedasticity;common random numbers;validation

Experimental Design for Sensitivity Analysis of Simulation Models

This introductory tutorial gives a survey on the use of statistical designs for what if-or sensitivity analysis in simulation.This analysis uses regression analysis to approximate the input/output transformation that is implied by the simulation model; the resulting regression model is also known as metamodel, response surface, compact model, emulator, etc.Regression analysis gives better results when the simulation experiment is well designed, using classical statistical designs (such as fractional factorials, including 2 k-p designs).These statistical techniques reduce the ad hoc character of simulation; that is, these techniques can make simulation studies give more general results, in less time.

Experimental Design for Sensitivity Analysis, Optimization and Validation of Simulation Models

This chapter gives a survey on the use of statistical designs for what-if analysis in simula- tion, including sensitivity analysis, optimization, and validation/verification. Sensitivity analysis is divided into two phases. The first phase is a pilot stage, which consists of screening or searching for the important factors among (say) hundreds of potentially important factors. A novel screening technique is presented, namely sequential bifurcation. The second phase uses regression analysis to approximate the input/output transformation that is implied by the simulation model; the resulting regression model is also known as a metamodel or a response surface. Regression analysis gives better results when the simu- lation experiment is well designed, using either classical statistical designs (such as frac- tional factorials) or optimal designs (such as pioneered by Fedorov, Kiefer, and Wolfo- witz). To optimize the simulated system, the analysts may apply Response Surface Metho- dology (RSM); RSM combines regression analysis, statistical designs, and steepest-ascent hill-climbing. To validate a simulation model, again regression analysis and statistical designs may be applied. Several numerical examples and case-studies illustrate how statisti- cal techniques can reduce the ad hoc character of simulation; that is, these statistical techniques can make simulation studies give more general results, in less time. Appendix 1 summarizes confidence intervals for expected values, proportions, and quantiles, in termi- nating and steady-state simulations. Appendix 2 gives details on four variance reduction techniques, namely common pseudorandom numbers, antithetic numbers, control variates or regression sampling, and importance sampling. Appendix 3 describes jackknifing, which may give robust confidence intervals.least squares;distribution-free;non-parametric;stopping rule;run-length;Von Neumann;median;seed;likelihood ratio

A statistical analysis of gyro drift test data, volume I

Statistical analysis of gyroscopic drift rate data for computer simulation of inertial navigator output erro

User's manual for the Simulated Life Analysis of Vehicle Elements (SLAVE) model

The simulated life analysis of vehicle elements model was designed to perform statistical simulation studies for any constant loss rate. The outputs of the model consist of the total number of stages required, stages successfully completing their lifetime, and average stage flight life. This report contains a complete description of the model. Users' instructions and interpretation of input and output data are presented such that a user with little or no prior programming knowledge can successfully implement the program

Deterministic versus Stochastic Sensitivity Analysis in Investment Problems: An Environmental Case Study

Sensitivity analysis in investment problems is an important tool to determine which factors can jeopardize the future of the investment.Information on the probability distribution of those factors that affect the investment is mostly lacking.In those situations the analysts have two options: (i) apply a method that does not require knowledge of that distribution, or (ii) make assumptions about the distribution.In both approaches sensitivity analysis should result in practical information about the actual importance of potential factors.For approach (i) we apply statistical design of experiments (DOE) in combination with regression analysis or meta-modeling.For approach (ii) we investigate five types of relationships between the model output and each individual factor; Pearson's p, Spearman's rank correlation, and location, dispersion, and statistical dependence.We introduce two distribution types popular with practitioners: uniform and triangular.In an environmental case study both approaches identify the same factors as important.sensitivity analysis;experimental design;investment analysis;simulation