State dependent choice

We propose a theory of choices that are influenced by the psychological state of the agent. The central hypothesis is that the psychological state controls the urgency of the attributes sought by the decision maker in the available alternatives. While state dependent choice is less restricted than rational choice, our model does have empirical content, expressed by simple "revealed preference" type of constraints on observable choice data. We demonstrate the applicability of simple versions of the framework to economic contexts. We show in particular that it can explain widely researched anomalies in the labour supply of taxi drivers

Stock Selection, Style Rotation, and Risk

Using US data from June 1984 to July 1999, we show that the impact of firm-specific characteristics like size and book-to-price on future excess stock returns varies considerably over time. The impact can be either positive or negative at different times. This time variation is partially predictable. We investigate whether the partial predictability signals security mispricing or risk compensation by formulating alternative modeling strategies. The strategies are compared empirically, In particular, we allow for a state-dependent choice of investment styles rather than a once-and-for-all choice for a particular style, for example based on high book-to-price ratios or small market cap values. Using alternative ways to correct for risk, we find significant and robust excess returns to style rotating investment strategies. Business cycle oriented approaches exhibit the best overall performance. Purely statistical models for style rotation or fixed investment styles reveal less robust behavior

Simple approximation for the starting-energy-independent two-body effective interaction with applications to 6Li

We apply the Lee-Suzuki iteration method to calculate the linked-folded diagram series for a new Nijmegen local NN potential. We obtain an exact starting-energy-independent effective two-body interaction for a multi-shell, no-core, harmonic-oscillator model space. It is found that the resulting effective-interaction matrix elements can be well approximated by the Brueckner G-matrix elements evaluated at starting energies selected in a simple way. These starting energies are closely related to the energies of the initial two-particle states in the ladder diagrams. The ``exact'' and approximate effective interactions are used to calculate the energy spectrum of 6Li in order to test the utility of the approximate form.Comment: 15 text pages and 2 PostScript figures (available upon request). University of Arizona preprint, Number unassigne

Floral to green: mating switches moth olfactory coding and preference

Mating induces profound physiological changes in a wide range of insects, leading to behavioural adjustments to match the internal state of the animal. Here, we show for the first time, to our knowledge, that a noctuid moth switches its olfactory response from food to egg-laying cues following mating. Unmated females of the cotton leafworm (Spodoptera littoralis) are strongly attracted to lilac flowers (Syringa vulgaris). After mating, attraction to floral odour is abolished and the females fly instead to green-leaf odour of the larval host plant cotton, Gossypium hirsutum. This behavioural switch is owing to a marked change in the olfactory representation of floral and green odours in the primary olfactory centre, the antennal lobe (AL). Calcium imaging, using authentic and synthetic odours, shows that the ensemble of AL glomeruli dedicated to either lilac or cotton odour is selectively up- and downregulated in response to mating. A clear-cut behavioural modulation as a function of mating is a useful substrate for studies of the neural mechanisms underlying behavioural decisions. Modulation of odour-driven behaviour through concerted regulation of odour maps contributes to our understanding of state-dependent choice and host shifts in insect herbivores

Large-space shell-model calculations for light nuclei

An effective two-body interaction is constructed from a new Reid-like $NN$ potential for a large no-core space consisting of six major shells and is used to generate the shell-model properties for light nuclei from $A$=2 to 6. (For practical reasons, the model space is partially truncated for $A$=6.) Binding energies and other physical observables are calculated and compare favorably with experiment.Comment: prepared using LaTex, 21 manuscript pages, no figure

On the Origin of Risk Sensitivity: the Energy Budget Rule Revisited

The risk-sensitive foraging theory formulated in terms of the (daily) energy budget rule has been influential in behavioural ecology as well as other disciplines. Predicting risk-aversion on positive budgets and risk-proneness on negative budgets, however, the budget rule has recently been challenged both empirically and theoretically. In this paper, we critically review these challenges as well as the original derivation of the budget rule and propose a `gradual' budget rule, which is normatively derived from a gradual nature of risk sensitivity and encompasses the conventional budget rule as a special case. The gradual budget rule shows that the conventional budget rule holds when the expected reserve is close enough to a threshold for overnight survival, selection pressure being significant. The gradual view also reveals that the conventional budget rule does not need to hold when the expected reserve is not close enough to the threshold, selection pressure being insignificant. The proposed gradual budget rule better fits the empirical findings including those that used to challenge the conventional budget rule.Comment: 13 pages, 4 figure

Model based decision support for planning of road maintenance

In this article we describe a Decision Support Model, based on Operational Research methods, for the multi-period planning of maintenance of bituminous pavements. This model is a tool for the road manager to assist in generating an optimal maintenance plan for a road. Optimal means: minimising the Net Present Value of maintenance costs, while the plan is acceptable in terms of technical admissibility, resulting quality, etc. Global restrictions such as budget restrictions can also be imposed.\ud \ud Adequate grouping of maintenance activities in view of quantity discounts is an important aspect of our model. Our approach is to reduce the complexity of the optimisation by hierarchical structuring in four levels. In the lowest two levels maintenance per lane sector is considered, first with an unbounded planning horizon and next with a bounded planning horizon and time-windows for maintenance. The grouping of maintenance activities for a specific road is the topic of the third level. At the fourth level, which we will not consider in this article, the problem of optimal assignment of the available maintenance budgets over a set of roads or road sections takes place. Here, some results are presented to demonstrate the effects of grouping and to show that this hierarchical approach gives rise to improvements compared with previous work

International Trade, Foreign Investment, and the Formation of the Entrepreneurial Class

In this paper, I examine the argument that free trade may be harmful to less developed countries, because such international competition inhibits the formation of a local entrepreneurial class.I view the entrepreneur as the manager of the industrial enterprise, as well as the agent who bears the risks associated with industrial production. A two-sector model of a small open economy is developed in which the size of the entrepreneurial class is endogenous.It is shown that the entrepreneurial class is smaller under free trade than would be first-best optimal in the presence of efficient risk-sharing institutions such as stock markets. Nonetheless, there are potential gains from trade, and any protectionist policy that increases the number of entrepreneurs will have deleterious welfare consequences.