Supply chain network design under uncertainty and risk

This thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and awarded by Brunel University.We consider the research problem of quantitative support for decision making in supply chain network design (SCND). We first identify the requirements for a comprehensive SCND as (i) a methodology to select uncertainties, (ii) a stochastic optimisation model, and (iii) an appropriate solution algorithm. We propose a process to select a manageable number of uncertainties to be included in a stochastic program for SCND. We develop a comprehensive two-stage stochastic program for SCND that includes uncertainty in demand, currency exchange rates, labour costs, productivity, supplier costs, and transport costs. Also, we consider conditional value at risk (CV@R) to explore the trade-off between risk and return. We use a scenario generator based on moment matching to represent the multivariate uncertainty. The resulting stochastic integer program is computationally challenging and we propose a novel iterative solution algorithm called adaptive scenario refinement (ASR) to process the problem. We describe the rationale underlying ASR, validate it for a set of benchmark problems, and discuss the benefits of the algorithm applied to our SCND problem. Finally, we demonstrate the benefits of the proposed model in a case study and show that multiple sources of uncertainty and risk are important to consider in the SCND. Whereas in the literature most research is on demand uncertainty, our study suggests that exchange rate uncertainty is more important for the choice of optimal supply chain strategies in international production networks. The SCND model and the use of the coherent downside risk measure in the stochastic program are innovative and novel; these and the ASR solution algorithm taken together make contributions to knowledge

Finite Alphabet Control of Logistic Networks with Discrete Uncertainty

We consider logistic networks in which the control and disturbance inputs take values in finite sets. We derive a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of robustly control invariant (hyperbox) sets. We show that a stronger version of this condition is sufficient to guarantee robust global attractivity, and we construct a counterexample demonstrating that it is not necessary. Being constructive, our proofs of sufficiency allow us to extract the corresponding robust control laws and to establish the invariance of certain sets. Finally, we highlight parallels between our results and existing results in the literature, and we conclude our study with two simple illustrative examples

Bi-Level Optimization Considering Uncertainties of Wind Power and Demand Response

Recently, world-wide power systems have been undergone a paradigm change with increasing penetration of renewable energy. The renewable energy is clean with low operation cost while subject to significant variability and uncertainty. Therefore, integration of renewables presents various challenges in power systems. Meanwhile, to offset the uncertainty from renewables, demand response (DR) has gained considerable research interests because of DR’s flexibility to mitigate the uncertainty from renewables. In this dissertation, various power system problems using bi-level optimization are investigated considering the uncertainties from wind power and demand response. In power system planning, reactive power planning (RPP) under high-penetration wind power is studied in this dissertation. To properly model wind power uncertainty, a multi-scenario framework based on alternating current optimal power flow (ACOPF) considering the voltage stability constraint under the worst wind scenario and transmission N-1 contingency is developed. The objective of RPP in this work is to minimize the VAR investment and the expected generation cost. Benders decomposition is used to solve this model with an upper level problem for VAR allocation optimization and generation cost minimization as a lower problem. Then, several problems related wind power and demand response uncertainties under power market operation are investigated. These include: an efficient and effective method to calculate the LMP intervals under wind uncertainty is proposed; the load serving entities’ strategic bidding through a coupon-based demand response (CBDR) with which a load serving entity (LSE) may participate in the electricity market as strategic bidders by offering CBDR programs to customers; the impact of financial transmission right (FTR) with CBDR programs is also studied from the perspective of LSEs; and the stragegic scheduling of energy storages owned by LSEs considering the impact of charging and discharging on the bus LMP. In these problems, a bi-level optimization framework is presented with various objective functions representing different problems as the upper level problems and the ISO’s economic dispatch (ED) as the lower level problem. The bi-level model is addressed with mathematic program with equilibrium constraints (MPEC) model and mixed-integer linear programming (MILP), which can be easily solved with the available optimization software tool

Computing (R, S) policies with correlated demand

This paper considers the single-item single-stocking non-stationary stochastic lot-sizing problem under correlated demand. By operating under a nonstationary (R, S) policy, in which R denote the reorder period and S the associated order-up-to-level, we introduce a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model which can be easily implemented by using off-theshelf optimisation software. Our modelling strategy can tackle a wide range of time-seriesbased demand processes, such as autoregressive (AR), moving average(MA), autoregressive moving average(ARMA), and autoregressive with autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity process(AR-ARCH). In an extensive computational study, we compare the performance of our model against the optimal policy obtained via stochastic dynamic programming. Our results demonstrate that the optimality gap of our approach averages 2.28% and that computational performance is good

Combined make-to-order and make-to-stock in a food production system

The research into multi-product production/inventory control systems has mainly assumed one of the two strategies: Make-to-Order (MTO) or Make-to-Stock (MTS). In practice, however, many companies cater to an increasing variety of products with varying logistical demands (e.g. short due dates, specific products) and production characteristics (e.g. capacity usage, setup) to different market segments and so they are moving to more MTO-production. As a consequence they operate under a hybrid MTO-MTS strategy. Important issues arising out of such situations are, for example, which products should be manufactured to stock and which ones on order and, how to allocate capacity among various MTO-MTS products. This paper presents the state-of-the-art literature review of the combined MTO-MTS production situations. A variety of production management issues in the context of food processing companies, where combined MTO-MTS production is quite common, are discussed in details. The authors propose a comprehensive hierarchical planning framework that covers the important production management decisions to serve as a starting point for evaluation and further research on the planning system for MTO-MTS situations.

The state-contingent approach to production under uncertainty

Chambers and Quiggin, claim that the state-contingent approach provides the best way to think about all problems in the economics of un- certainty, including problems of consumer choice, the theory of the firm, and principal?agent relationships. The purpose of this paper is to restate this claim, and to defend it in the light of recent developments in, and applications of, the state-contingent approach.

Optimisation of vendor-managed inventory systems

Imperial Users onl

Best matching processes in distributed systems

The growing complexity and dynamic behavior of modern manufacturing and service industries along with competitive and globalized markets have gradually transformed traditional centralized systems into distributed networks of e- (electronic) Systems. Emerging examples include e-Factories, virtual enterprises, smart farms, automated warehouses, and intelligent transportation systems. These (and similar) distributed systems, regardless of context and application, have a property in common: They all involve certain types of interactions (collaborative, competitive, or both) among their distributed individuals—from clusters of passive sensors and machines to complex networks of computers, intelligent robots, humans, and enterprises. Having this common property, such systems may encounter common challenges in terms of suboptimal interactions and thus poor performance, caused by potential mismatch between individuals. For example, mismatched subassembly parts, vehicles—routes, suppliers—retailers, employees—departments, and products—automated guided vehicles—storage locations may lead to low-quality products, congested roads, unstable supply networks, conflicts, and low service level, respectively. This research refers to this problem as best matching, and investigates it as a major design principle of CCT, the Collaborative Control Theory. The original contribution of this research is to elaborate on the fundamentals of best matching in distributed and collaborative systems, by providing general frameworks for (1) Systematic analysis, inclusive taxonomy, analogical and structural comparison between different matching processes; (2) Specification and formulation of problems, and development of algorithms and protocols for best matching; (3) Validation of the models, algorithms, and protocols through extensive numerical experiments and case studies. The first goal is addressed by investigating matching problems in distributed production, manufacturing, supply, and service systems based on a recently developed reference model, the PRISM Taxonomy of Best Matching. Following the second goal, the identified problems are then formulated as mixed-integer programs. Due to the computational complexity of matching problems, various optimization algorithms are developed for solving different problem instances, including modified genetic algorithms, tabu search, and neighbourhood search heuristics. The dynamic and collaborative/competitive behaviors of matching processes in distributed settings are also formulated and examined through various collaboration, best matching, and task administration protocols. In line with the third goal, four case studies are conducted on various manufacturing, supply, and service systems to highlight the impact of best matching on their operational performance, including service level, utilization, stability, and cost-effectiveness, and validate the computational merits of the developed solution methodologies