Deterministic Mean-field Ensemble Kalman Filtering

The proof of convergence of the standard ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) from Legland etal. (2011) is extended to non-Gaussian state space models. A density-based deterministic approximation of the mean-field limit EnKF (DMFEnKF) is proposed, consisting of a PDE solver and a quadrature rule. Given a certain minimal order of convergence $\kappa$ between the two, this extends to the deterministic filter approximation, which is therefore asymptotically superior to standard EnKF when the dimension $d<2\kappa$. The fidelity of approximation of the true distribution is also established using an extension of total variation metric to random measures. This is limited by a Gaussian bias term arising from non-linearity/non-Gaussianity of the model, which exists for both DMFEnKF and standard EnKF. Numerical results support and extend the theory

On Approximate Nonlinear Gaussian Message Passing On Factor Graphs

Factor graphs have recently gained increasing attention as a unified framework for representing and constructing algorithms for signal processing, estimation, and control. One capability that does not seem to be well explored within the factor graph tool kit is the ability to handle deterministic nonlinear transformations, such as those occurring in nonlinear filtering and smoothing problems, using tabulated message passing rules. In this contribution, we provide general forward (filtering) and backward (smoothing) approximate Gaussian message passing rules for deterministic nonlinear transformation nodes in arbitrary factor graphs fulfilling a Markov property, based on numerical quadrature procedures for the forward pass and a Rauch-Tung-Striebel-type approximation of the backward pass. These message passing rules can be employed for deriving many algorithms for solving nonlinear problems using factor graphs, as is illustrated by the proposition of a nonlinear modified Bryson-Frazier (MBF) smoother based on the presented message passing rules

A survey of the state of the art and focused research in range systems, task 2

Contract generated publications are compiled which describe the research activities for the reporting period. Study topics include: equivalent configurations of systolic arrays; least squares estimation algorithms with systolic array architectures; modeling and equilization of nonlinear bandlimited satellite channels; and least squares estimation and Kalman filtering by systolic arrays

Filtering in Finance.

In this article we present an introduction to various Filtering algorithms and some of their applications to the world of Quantitative Finance. We shall first mention the fundamental case of Gaussian noises where we obtain the well-known Kalman Filter. Because of common nonlinearities, we will be discussing the Extended Kalman Filter.Commodity Prices; Term Structure; Stock Prices; Kalman Filter;

Estimating model evidence using data assimilation

We review the field of data assimilation (DA) from a Bayesian perspective and show that, in addition to its by now common application to state estimation, DA may be used for model selection. An important special case of the latter is the discrimination between a factual model–which corresponds, to the best of the modeller's knowledge, to the situation in the actual world in which a sequence of events has occurred–and a counterfactual model, in which a particular forcing or process might be absent or just quantitatively different from the actual world. Three different ensemble‐DA methods are reviewed for this purpose: the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), the ensemble four‐dimensional variational smoother (En‐4D‐Var), and the iterative ensemble Kalman smoother (IEnKS). An original contextual formulation of model evidence (CME) is introduced. It is shown how to apply these three methods to compute CME, using the approximated time‐dependent probability distribution functions (pdfs) each of them provide in the process of state estimation. The theoretical formulae so derived are applied to two simplified nonlinear and chaotic models: (i) the Lorenz three‐variable convection model (L63), and (ii) the Lorenz 40‐variable midlatitude atmospheric dynamics model (L95). The numerical results of these three DA‐based methods and those of an integration based on importance sampling are compared. It is found that better CME estimates are obtained by using DA, and the IEnKS method appears to be best among the DA methods. Differences among the performance of the three DA‐based methods are discussed as a function of model properties. Finally, the methodology is implemented for parameter estimation and for event attribution