Stability and Sensitivity Measures for Solutions in Complex, Intelligent, Adaptive and Autonomous Systems

Simulation has become a pivotal tool for the design, analysis, and control of complex, intelligent, adaptive and autonomous systems and its components. However, due to the nature of these systems, traditional evaluation practices are often not sufficient. As the components follow adaptive rules, the cumulative events often exploit bifurcation enabling events, leading to clusters of solutions that do not follow the usual rules for standard distributed events. When using simulation for design, analysis, and control of such systems, the evaluation needs to be richer, applying bifurcation and cluster analysis to understand the distribution, applying factor analysis to understand the important factors for the necessary sensitivity analysis, and take not only point estimates for the solution and the sensitivity analysis into account, but contact a statistical stability analysis. The full exploitation of gaining numerical insights into the dynamic behavior and its deviations is needed. This paper introduces the pitfalls and recommends applicable methods and heuristics

Co-simulation of multiple vehicle routing problem models

Complex systems are often designed in a decentralized and open way so that they can operate on heterogeneous entities that communicate with each other. Numerous studies consider the process of components simulation in a complex system as a proven approach to realistically predict the behavior of a complex system or to effectively manage its complexity. The simulation of different complex system components can be coupled via co-simulation to reproduce the behavior emerging from their interaction. On the other hand, multi-agent simulations have been largely implemented in complex system modeling and simulation. Each multi-agent simulator’s role is to solve one of the VRP objectives. These simulators interact within a co-simulation platform called MECSYCO, to ensure the integration of the various proposed VRP models. This paper presents the Vehicle Routing Problem (VRP) simulation results in several aspects, where the main goal is to satisfy several client demands. The experiments show the performance of the proposed VRP multi-model and carry out its improvement in terms of computational complexity

An Empirical Survey on Co-simulation: Promising Standards, Challenges and Research Needs

Co-simulation is a promising approach for the modelling and simulation of complex systems, that makes use of mature simulation tools in the respective domains. It has been applied in wildly different domains, oftentimes without a comprehensive study of the impact to the simulation results. As a consequence, over the recent years, researchers have set out to understand the essential challenges arising from the application of this technique. This paper complements the existing surveys in that the social and empirical aspects were addressed. More than 50 experts participated in a two-stage Delphi study to determine current challenges, research needs and promising standards and tools. Furthermore, an analysis of the strengths, weakness, opportunities and threats of co-simulation utilizing the analytic hierarchy process resulting in a SWOT-AHP analysis is presented. The empirical results of this study show that experts consider the FMI standard to be the most promising standard for continuous time, discrete event and hybrid co-simulation. The results of the SWOT-AHP analysis indicate that factors related to strengths and opportunities predominate

Collaborative Design in the Sustainable Infrastructure Planning Game

The pursuit of sustainable large-scale infrastructure systems demands new design tools to exchange information Among distributed decision-makers. This paper describes and demonstrates interoperable simulation gaming as a collaborative infrastructure design activity. The Sustainable Infrastructure Planning Game (SIPG) is a prototype implementation using the High Level Architecture (HLA) to exchange technical data between sector-specific simulation models. SIPG considers a 30-year strategic planning exercise for a fictional desert nation with three role-players controlling water, energy, and agriculture sectors. A human subjects experiment with 15 ad-hoc teams shows integrated, synchronous tools facilitate data exchange which, Subsequently, is correlated with effective design for common objectives

HydroShare – A Case Study of the Application of Modern Software Engineering to a Large Distributed Federally-Funded Scientific Software Development Project

HydroShare is an online collaborative system under development to support the open sharing of hydrologic data, analytical tools, and computer models. With HydroShare, scientists can easily discover, access, and analyze hydrologic data and thereby enhance the production and reproducibility of hydrologic scientific results. HydroShare also takes advantage of emerging social media functionality to enable users to enhance information about and collaboration around hydrologic data and models. HydroShare is being developed by an interdisciplinary collaborative team of domain scientists, university software developers, and professional software engineers from ten institutions located across the United States. While the combination of non–co-located, diverse stakeholders presents communication and management challenges, the interdisciplinary nature of the team is integral to the project’s goal of improving scientific software development and capabilities in academia. This chapter describes the challenges faced and lessons learned with the development of HydroShare, as well as the approach to software development that the HydroShare team adopted on the basis of the lessons learned. The chapter closes with recommendations for the application of modern software engineering techniques to large, collaborative, scientific software development projects, similar to the National Science Foundation (NSF)–funded HydroShare, in order to promote the successful application of the approach described herein by other teams for other projects

Quantifying restoration costs in the aftermath of an extreme event using system dynamics and dynamic mathematical modeling approaches

Extreme events such as earthquakes, hurricanes, and the like, lead to devastating effects that may render multiple supply chain critical infrastructure elements inoperable. The economic losses caused by extreme events continue well after the emergency response phase has ended and are a key factor in determining the best path for post-disaster restoration. It is essential to develop efficient restoration and disaster management strategies to ameliorate the losses from such events. This dissertation extends the existing knowledge base on disaster management and restoration through the creation of models and tools that identify the relationship between production losses and restoration costs. The first research contribution is a system dynamics inoperability model that determines inputs, outputs, and flows for roadway networks. This model can be used to identify the connectivity of road segments and better understand how inoperability contributes to economic consequences. The second contribution is an algorithm that integrates critical infrastructure data derived from bottom-up cost estimation technique as part of an object-oriented software tool that can be used to determine the impact of system disruptions. The third contribution is a dynamic mathematical model that establishes a framework to estimate post-disaster restoration costs from a whole system perspective. Engineering managers, city planners, and policy makers can use the methodologies developed in this research to develop effective disaster planning schemas and to prioritize post-disaster restoration operations --Abstract, page iv

Hybrid simulation: Historical lessons, present challenges and futures

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A New Concept of Digital Twin Supporting Optimization and Resilience of Factories of the Future

In the context of Industry 4.0, a growing use is being made of simulation-based decision-support tools commonly named Digital Twins. Digital Twins are replicas of the physical manufacturing assets, providing means for the monitoring and control of individual assets. Although extensive research on Digital Twins and their applications has been carried out, the majority of existing approaches are asset specific. Little consideration is made of human factors and interdependencies between different production assets are commonly ignored. In this paper, we address those limitations and propose innovations for cognitive modeling and co-simulation which may unleash novel uses of Digital Twins in Factories of the Future. We introduce a holistic Digital Twin approach, in which the factory is not represented by a set of separated Digital Twins but by a comprehensive modeling and simulation capacity embracing the full manufacturing process including external network dependencies. Furthermore, we introduce novel approaches for integrating models of human behavior and capacities for security testing with Digital Twins and show how the holistic Digital Twin can enable new services for the optimization and resilience of Factories of the Future. To illustrate this approach, we introduce a specific use-case implemented in field of Aerospace System Manufacturing.The present work was developed under the EUREKA–ITEA3 Project CyberFactory#1 (ITEA-17032), co-funded by Project CyberFactory#1PT (ANI|P2020 40124), from FEDER Funds through NORTE2020 program and from National Funds through FCT under the project UID/EEA/00760/2019 and by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF, Germany, funding No. 01IS18061C).info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

INTEROPERABILITY FOR MODELING AND SIMULATION IN MARITIME EXTENDED FRAMEWORK

This thesis reports on the most relevant researches performed during the years of the Ph.D. at the Genova University and within the Simulation Team. The researches have been performed according to M&S well known recognized standards. The studies performed on interoperable simulation cover all the environments of the Extended Maritime Framework, namely Sea Surface, Underwater, Air, Coast & Land, Space and Cyber Space. The applications cover both the civil and defence domain. The aim is to demonstrate the potential of M&S applications for the Extended Maritime Framework, applied to innovative unmanned vehicles as well as to traditional assets, human personnel included. A variety of techniques and methodology have been fruitfully applied in the researches, ranging from interoperable simulation, discrete event simulation, stochastic simulation, artificial intelligence, decision support system and even human behaviour modelling