Spooky effect in optimal OSPA estimation and how GOSPA solves it

In this paper, we show the spooky effect at a distance that arises in optimal estimation of multiple targets with the optimal sub-pattern assignment (OSPA) metric. This effect refers to the fact that if we have several independent potential targets at distant locations, a change in the probability of existence of one of them can completely change the optimal estimation of the rest of the potential targets. As opposed to OSPA, the generalised OSPA (GOSPA) metric (α=2) penalises localisation errors for properly detected targets, false targets and missed targets. As a consequence, optimal GOSPA estimation aims to lower the number of false and missed targets, as well as the localisation error for properly detected targets, and avoids the spooky effect

Non-Myopic Sensor Control for Target Search and Track Using a Sample-Based GOSPA Implementation

This paper is concerned with sensor management for target search and track using the generalised optimal subpattern assignment (GOSPA) metric. Utilising the GOSPA metric to predict future system performance is computationally challenging, because of the need to account for uncertainties within the scenario, notably the number of targets, the locations of targets, and the measurements generated by the targets subsequent to performing sensing actions. In this paper, efficient sample-based techniques are developed to calculate the predicted mean square GOSPA metric. These techniques allow for missed detections and false alarms, and thereby enable the metric to be exploited in scenarios more complex than those previously considered. Furthermore, the GOSPA methodology is extended to perform non-myopic (i.e. multi-step) sensor management via the development of a Bellman-type recursion that optimises a conditional GOSPA-based metric. Simulations for scenarios with missed detections, false alarms, and planning horizons of up to three time steps demonstrate the approach, in particular showing that optimal plans align with an intuitive understanding of how taking into account the opportunity to make future observations should influence the current action. It is concluded that the GOSPA-based, non-myopic search and track algorithm offers a powerful mechanism for sensor management.Comment: The paper has been submitted for publication in IEEE Transactions on Aerospace and Electronic Systems and is currently in revie

Conjugate priors for Bayesian object tracking

Object tracking refers to the problem of using noisy sensor measurements to determine the location and characteristics of objects of interest in clutter. Nowadays, object tracking has found applications in numerous research venues as well as application areas, including air traffic control, maritime navigation, remote sensing, intelligent video surveillance, and more recently environmental perception, which is a key enabling technology in autonomous vehicles. This thesis studies conjugate priors for Bayesian object tracking with focus on multi-object tracking (MOT) based on sets of trajectories. Finite Set Statistics provides an elegant Bayesian formulation of MOT in terms of the theory of random finite sets (RFSs). Conjugate priors are also of great interest as they provide families of distributions that are suitable to work with when seeking accurate approximations to the true posterior distributions. Many RFS-based MOT approaches are only concerned with multi-object filtering without attempting to estimate object trajectories. An appealing approach to building tracks is by computing the multi-object densities on sets of trajectories. This leads to the development of trajectory filters, e.g., filters based on Poisson multi-Bernoulli mixture (PMBM) conjugate priors.In this thesis, [Paper A] and [Paper B] consider the problem of point object tracking where an object generates at most one measurement per scan. In [Paper A], it is shown that the trajectory MBM filter is the solution to the MOT problem for standard point object models with multi-Bernoulli birth. In addition, the multi-scan implementations of trajectory PMBM and MBM filters are presented. In [Paper B], a solution for recovering full trajectory information, via the calculation of the posterior of the set of trajectories from a sequence of multi-object filtering densities and the multi-object dynamic model, is presented. [Paper C] and [Paper D] consider the problem of ex- tended object tracking where an object may generate multiple measurements per scan. In [Paper C], the extended object PMBM filter for sets of objects is generalized to sets of trajectories. In [Paper D], a learning-based extended ob- ject tracking algorithm using a hierarchical truncated Gaussian measurement model tailored for automotive radar measurements is presented

Poisson Multi-Bernoulli Mixtures for Multiple Object Tracking

Multi-object tracking (MOT) refers to the process of estimating object trajectories of interest based on sequences of noisy sensor measurements obtained from multiple sources. Nowadays, MOT has found applications in numerous areas, including, e.g., air traffic control, maritime navigation, remote sensing, intelligent video surveillance, and more recently environmental perception, which is a key enabling technology in automated vehicles. This thesis studies Poisson multi-Bernoulli mixture (PMBM) conjugate priors for MOT. Finite Set Statistics provides an elegant Bayesian formulation of MOT based on random finite sets (RFSs), and a significant trend in RFSs-based MOT is the development of conjugate distributions in Bayesian probability theory, such as the PMBM distributions. Multi-object conjugate priors are of great interest as they provide families of distributions that are suitable to work with when seeking accurate approximations to the true posterior distributions. Many RFS-based MOT approaches are only concerned with multi-object filtering without attempting to estimate object trajectories. An appealing approach to building trajectories is by computing the multi-object densities on sets of trajectories. This leads to the development of many multi-object filters based on sets of trajectories, e.g., the trajectory PMBM filters. In this thesis, [Paper A] and [Paper B] consider the problem of point object tracking where an object generates at most one measurement per time scan. In [Paper A], a multi-scan implementation of trajectory PMBM filters via dual decomposition is presented. In [Paper B], a multi-trajectory particle smoother using backward simulation is presented for computing the multi-object posterior for sets of trajectories using a sequence of multi-object filtering densities and a multi-object dynamic model. [Paper C] and [Paper D] consider the problem of extended object tracking where an object may generate multiple measurements per time scan. In [Paper C], an extended object Poisson multi-Bernoulli (PMB) filter is presented, where the PMBM posterior density after the update step is approximated as a PMB. In [Paper D], a trajectory PMB filter for extended object tracking using belief propagation is presented, where the efficient PMB approximation is enabled by leveraging the PMBM conjugacy and the factor graph formulation

Optimal Bernoulli point estimation with applications

This paper develops optimal procedures for point estimation with Bernoulli filters. These filters are of interest to radar and sonar surveillance because they are designed for stochastic targets that can enter and exit the surveillance region at random instances. Because of this property they are not served by the minimum mean square estimator, which is the most widely used approach to optimal point estimation. Instead of the squared error loss, this paper proposes an application-oriented loss function that is compatible with Bernoulli filters, and it develops two significant practical estimators: the minimum probability of error estimate (which is based on the rule of ideal observer), and the minimum mean operational loss estimate (which models a simple defence scenario)

Mathematical Models and Monte-Carlo Algorithms for Improved Detection of Targets in the Commercial Maritime Domain

Commercial Vessel Traffic Monitoring Services (VTMSs) are widely used by port authorities and the military to improve the safety and efficiency of navigation, as well as to ensure the security of ports and marine life as a whole. Technology based on the Kalman Filtering framework is in widespread use in modern operational VTMS systems. At a research level, there has also been a significant interest in Particle Filters, which are widely researched but far less widely applied to deliver an operational advantage. The Monte-Carlo nature of Particle Filters places them as the ideal candidate for solving the highly non-linear, non-Gaussian problems encountered by modern VTMS systems. However, somewhat counter-intuitively, while Particle Filters are best suited to exploit such non-linear, non-Gaussian problems, they are most frequently used within a context that is mostly linear and Gaussian. The engineering challenge tackled by the PhD project reported in this thesis was to study and experiment with models that are well placed to capitalise on the abilities of Particle Filters and to develop solutions that make use of such models to deliver a direct operational advantage in real applications within the commercial maritime domain

Spooky effect in optimal OSPA estimation and how GOSPA solves it

In this paper, we show the spooky effect at a distance that arises in optimal estimation of multiple targets with the optimal sub-pattern assignment (OSPA) metric. This effect refers to the fact that if we have several independent potential targets at distant locations, a change in the probability of existence of one of them can completely change the optimal estimation of the rest of the potential targets. As opposed to OSPA, the generalised OSPA (GOSPA) metric (α=2) penalises localisation errors for properly detected targets, false targets and missed targets. As a consequence, optimal GOSPA estimation aims to lower the number of false and missed targets, as well as the localisation error for properly detected targets, and avoids the spooky effect