K-CUSUM: Cluster Detection Mechanism in EDMON

Source at https://www.ep.liu.se/ecp/contents.asp?issue=161. The main goal of the EDMON (Electronic Disease Monitoring Network) project is to detect the spread of contagious diseases at the earliest possible moment, and potentially before people know that they have been infected. The results shall be visualized on real-time maps as well as presented in digital communication. In this paper, a hybrid of K-nearness Neighbor (KNN) and cumulative sum (CUSUM), known as K-CUSUM, were explored and implemented with a prototype approach. The KNN algorithm, which was implemented in the K- CUSUM, recorded 99.52% accuracy when it was tested with simulated dataset containing geolocation coordinates among other features and SckitLearn KNN algorithm achieved an accuracy of 93.81% when it was tested with the same dataset. After injection of spikes of known outbreaks in the simulated data, the CUSUM module was totally specific and sensitive by correctly identifying all outbreaks and non-outbreak clusters. Suitable methods for obtaining a balance point of anonymizing geolocation attributes towards obscuring the privacy and confidentiality of diabetes subjects’ trajectories while maintaining the data requirements for public good, in terms of disease surveillance, remains a challenge

A systematic review of cluster detection mechanisms in syndromic surveillance: Towards developing a framework of cluster detection mechanisms for EDMON system

Source at http://www.ep.liu.se/ecp/151/011/ecp18151011.pdf.Time lag in detecting disease outbreaks remains a threat to global health security. Currently, our research team is working towards a system called EDMON, which uses blood glucose level and other supporting parameters from people with type 1 diabetes, as indicator variables for outbreak detection. Therefore, this paper aims to pinpoint the state of the art cluster detection mechanism towards developing an efficient framework to be used in EDMON and other similar syndromic surveillance systems. Various challenges such as user mobility, privacy and confidentiality, geographical location estimation and other factors have been considered. To this end, we conducted a systematic review exploring different online scholarly databases. Considering peer reviewed journals and articles, literatures search was conducted between January and March 2018. Relevant literatures were identified using the title, keywords, and abstracts as a preliminary filter with the inclusion criteria and a full text review were done for literatures that were found to be relevant. A total of 28 articles were included in the study. The result indicates that various clustering and aberration detection algorithms have been developed and tested up to the task. In this regard, privacy preserving policies and high computational power requirement were found challenging since it restrict usage of specific locations for syndromic surveillance

Biosurveillance: Detecting, Tracking, and Mitigating the Effects of Natural Disease and Bioterrorism

Encyclopedia of Operations Research and the Management Sciences, Cochran, J.J. (ed.), John Wiley & Sons Ltd.The article of record as published may be located at http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9780470400531Biosurveillance is the regular collection, analysis, and interpretation of health and health related data for indicators of diseases and other outbreaks by public health organizations. Motivated by the threat of bioterrorism, biosurviellance systems are being developed and implemented around the world. The goal of these systems has been expanded to include both early event detection and situational awareness, so that the focus is not simply on detection, but also on response and consequence management. Whether they rae useful for detecting bioterrorism or not, there seems to be consensus that these biosurveillance systems are likely to be useful for detecting bioterrorism or not, there seems to be consensus that these biosurveillance systems are likely to be useful for detecting and responding to naural disease outbreaks such as seasonal and pandemic flu, and thus they have potential to significantly advance and modernize the practice of public health surveillance

A simulation study comparing aberration detection algorithms for syndromic surveillance

BACKGROUND: The usefulness of syndromic surveillance for early outbreak detection depends in part on effective statistical aberration detection. However, few published studies have compared different detection algorithms on identical data. In the largest simulation study conducted to date, we compared the performance of six aberration detection algorithms on simulated outbreaks superimposed on authentic syndromic surveillance data. METHODS: We compared three control-chart-based statistics, two exponential weighted moving averages, and a generalized linear model. We simulated 310 unique outbreak signals, and added these to actual daily counts of four syndromes monitored by Public Health – Seattle and King County's syndromic surveillance system. We compared the sensitivity of the six algorithms at detecting these simulated outbreaks at a fixed alert rate of 0.01. RESULTS: Stratified by baseline or by outbreak distribution, duration, or size, the generalized linear model was more sensitive than the other algorithms and detected 54% (95% CI = 52%–56%) of the simulated epidemics when run at an alert rate of 0.01. However, all of the algorithms had poor sensitivity, particularly for outbreaks that did not begin with a surge of cases. CONCLUSION: When tested on county-level data aggregated across age groups, these algorithms often did not perform well in detecting signals other than large, rapid increases in case counts relative to baseline levels

Disease surveillance using a hidden Markov model

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Routine surveillance of disease notification data can enable the early detection of localised disease outbreaks. Although hidden Markov models (HMMs) have been recognised as an appropriate method to model disease surveillance data, they have been rarely applied in public health practice. We aimed to develop and evaluate a simple flexible HMM for disease surveillance which is suitable for use with sparse small area count data and requires little baseline data.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A Bayesian HMM was designed to monitor routinely collected notifiable disease data that are aggregated by residential postcode. Semi-synthetic data were used to evaluate the algorithm and compare outbreak detection performance with the established Early Aberration Reporting System (EARS) algorithms and a negative binomial cusum.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Algorithm performance varied according to the desired false alarm rate for surveillance. At false alarm rates around 0.05, the cusum-based algorithms provided the best overall outbreak detection performance, having similar sensitivity to the HMMs and a shorter average time to detection. At false alarm rates around 0.01, the HMM algorithms provided the best overall outbreak detection performance, having higher sensitivity than the cusum-based Methods and a generally shorter time to detection for larger outbreaks. Overall, the 14-day HMM had a significantly greater area under the receiver operator characteristic curve than the EARS C3 and 7-day negative binomial cusum algorithms.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our findings suggest that the HMM provides an effective method for the surveillance of sparse small area notifiable disease data at low false alarm rates. Further investigations are required to evaluation algorithm performance across other diseases and surveillance contexts.</p