Advances and visions in large-scale hydrological modelling: findings from the 11th Workshop on Large-Scale Hydrological Modelling

Large-scale hydrological modelling has become increasingly wide-spread during the last decade. An annual workshop series on large-scale hydrological modelling has provided, since 1997, a forum to the German-speaking community for discussing recent developments and achievements in this research area. In this paper we present the findings from the 2007 workshop which focused on advances and visions in large-scale hydrological modelling. We identify the state of the art, difficulties and research perspectives with respect to the themes "sensitivity of model results", "integrated modelling" and "coupling of processes in hydrosphere, atmosphere and biosphere". Some achievements in large-scale hydrological modelling during the last ten years are presented together with a selection of remaining challenges for the future

Global soil moisture data derived through machine learning trained with in-situ measurements

Measurement(s) wetness of soil Technology Type(s) machine learning Factor Type(s) soil layer • temporal interval • geographic location Sample Characteristic - Environment soil Machine-accessible metadata file describing the reported data: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.1479051

Climate-Driven Variability and Trends in Plant Productivity Over Recent Decades Based on Three Global Products

Variability in climate exerts a strong influence on vegetation productivity (gross primary productivity; GPP), and therefore has a large impact on the land carbon sink. However, no direct observations of global GPP exist, and estimates rely on models that are constrained by observations at various spatial and temporal scales. Here, we assess the consistency in GPP from global products which extend for more than three decades; two observation‐based approaches, the upscaling of FLUXNET site observations (FLUXCOM) and a remote sensing derived light use efficiency model (RS‐LUE), and from a suite of terrestrial biosphere models (TRENDYv6). At local scales, we find high correlations in annual GPP among the products, with exceptions in tropical and high northern latitudes. On longer time scales, the products agree on the direction of trends over 58% of the land, with large increases across northern latitudes driven by warming trends. Further, tropical regions exhibit the largest interannual variability in GPP, with both rainforests and savannas contributing substantially. Variability in savanna GPP is likely predominantly driven by water availability, although temperature could play a role via soil moisture‐atmosphere feedbacks. There is, however, no consensus on the magnitude and driver of variability of tropical forests, which suggest uncertainties in process representations and underlying observations remain. These results emphasize the need for more direct long‐term observations of GPP along with an extension of in situ networks in underrepresented regions (e.g., tropical forests). Such capabilities would support efforts to better validate relevant processes in models, to more accurately estimate GPP

Enhancing Surface Soil Moisture Estimation through Integration of Artificial Neural Networks Machine Learning and Fusion of Meteorological, Sentinel-1A and Sentinel-2A Satellite Data

For many environmental and agricultural applications, an accurate estimation of surface soil moisture is essential. This study sought to determine whether combining Sentinel-1A, Sentinel-2A, and meteorological data with artificial neural networks (ANN) could improve soil moisture estimation in various land cover types. To train and evaluate the model’s performance, we used field data (provided by La Tuscia University) on the study area collected during time periods between October 2022, and December 2022. Surface soil moisture was measured at 29 locations. The performance of the model was trained, validated, and tested using input features in a 60:10:30 ratio, using the feed-forward ANN model. It was found that the ANN model exhibited high precision in predicting soil moisture. The model achieved a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.71 and correlation coefficient (R) of 0.84. Furthermore, the incorporation of Random Forest (RF) algorithms for soil moisture prediction resulted in an improved R2 of 0.89. The unique combination of active microwave, meteorological data and multispectral data provides an opportunity to exploit the complementary nature of the datasets. Through preprocessing, fusion, and ANN modeling, this research contributes to advancing soil moisture estimation techniques and providing valuable insights for water resource management and agricultural planning in the study area

Integration Frameworks for Merging Satellite Remote Sensing Observations with Hydrological Model Outputs

With a growing number of available datasets especially from satellite remote sensing, there is a great opportunity to improve our knowledge of hydrological processes by integrating them with hydrological models. In this regard, data assimilation technique can be used to constrain the dynamic of a model with available observations in order to improve its estimates. In this thesis, a comprehensive data assimilation framework containing multiple stages is proposed and tested over various areas

Parameter conditioning with a noisy Monte Carlo genetic algorithm for estimating effective soil hydraulic properties from space

The estimation of effective soil hydraulic parameters and their uncertainties is a critical step in all large-scale hydrologic and climatic model applications. Here a scale-dependent (top-down) parameter estimation (inverse modeling) scheme called the noisy Monte Carlo genetic algorithm (NMCGA) was developed and tested for estimating these effective soil hydraulic parameters and their uncertainties. We tested our method using three case studies involving a synthetic pixel (pure and mixed) where all modeling conditions are known, and with actual airborne remote sensing (RS) footprints and a satellite RS footprint. In the synthetic case studies under pure (one soil texture) and mixed-pixel (multiple soil textures) conditions, NMCGA performed well in estimating the effective soil hydraulic parameters even with pixel complexities contributed by various soil types and land management practices (rain-fed/irrigated). With the airborne and satellite remote sensing cases, NMCGA also performed well for estimating effective soil hydraulic properties so that when applied in forward stochastic simulation modeling it can mimic large-scale soil moisture dynamics. The results also suggest a possible scaling down of the effective soil water retention curve (h) at the larger satellite remote sensing pixel compared with the airborne remote sensing pixel. However, it did not generally imply that all effective soil hydraulic parameters should scale down like the soil water retention curve. The reduction of the soil hydraulic parameters was most profound in the saturated soil moisture content ( sat) as we relaxed progressively the soil hydraulic parameter search spaces in our satellite remote sensing studies. Overall, the NMCGA framework was found to be very promising in the inverse modeling of remotely sensed near-surface soil moisture for estimating the effective soil hydraulic parameters and their uncertainties at the remote sensing footprint/climate model grid

Nonparametric Data Assimilation Scheme for Land Hydrological Applications

Data assimilation, which relies on explicit knowledge of dynamical models, is a well-known approach that addresses models' limitations due to various reasons, such as errors in input and forcing data sets. This approach, however, requires intensive computational efforts, especially for high-dimensional systems such as distributed hydrological models. Alternatively, data-driven methods offer comparable solutions when the physics underlying the models are unknown. For the first time in a hydrological context, a nonparametric framework is implemented here to improve model estimates using available observations. This method uses Takens delay coordinate method to reconstruct the dynamics of the system within a Kalman filtering framework, called the Kalman-Takens filter. A synthetic experiment is undertaken to fully investigate the capability of the proposed method by comparing its performance with that of a standard assimilation framework based on an adaptive unscented Kalman filter (AUKF). Furthermore, using terrestrial water storage (TWS) estimates obtained from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment mission, both filters are applied to a real case scenario to update different water storages over Australia. In situ groundwater and soil moisture measurements within Australia are used to further evaluate the results. The Kalman-Takens filter successfully improves the estimated water storages at levels comparable to the AUKF results, with an average root-mean-square error reduction of 37.30% for groundwater and 12.11% for soil moisture estimates. Additionally, the Kalman-Takens filter, while reducing estimation complexities, requires a fraction of the computational time, that is, ~8 times faster compared to the AUKF approach