17,482 research outputs found
Marginal likelihoods in phylogenetics: a review of methods and applications
By providing a framework of accounting for the shared ancestry inherent to
all life, phylogenetics is becoming the statistical foundation of biology. The
importance of model choice continues to grow as phylogenetic models continue to
increase in complexity to better capture micro and macroevolutionary processes.
In a Bayesian framework, the marginal likelihood is how data update our prior
beliefs about models, which gives us an intuitive measure of comparing model
fit that is grounded in probability theory. Given the rapid increase in the
number and complexity of phylogenetic models, methods for approximating
marginal likelihoods are increasingly important. Here we try to provide an
intuitive description of marginal likelihoods and why they are important in
Bayesian model testing. We also categorize and review methods for estimating
marginal likelihoods of phylogenetic models, highlighting several recent
methods that provide well-behaved estimates. Furthermore, we review some
empirical studies that demonstrate how marginal likelihoods can be used to
learn about models of evolution from biological data. We discuss promising
alternatives that can complement marginal likelihoods for Bayesian model
choice, including posterior-predictive methods. Using simulations, we find one
alternative method based on approximate-Bayesian computation (ABC) to be
biased. We conclude by discussing the challenges of Bayesian model choice and
future directions that promise to improve the approximation of marginal
likelihoods and Bayesian phylogenetics as a whole.Comment: 33 pages, 3 figure
Make the most of your samples : Bayes factor estimators for high-dimensional models of sequence evolution
Background: Accurate model comparison requires extensive computation times, especially for parameter-rich models of sequence evolution. In the Bayesian framework, model selection is typically performed through the evaluation of a Bayes factor, the ratio of two marginal likelihoods (one for each model). Recently introduced techniques to estimate (log) marginal likelihoods, such as path sampling and stepping-stone sampling, offer increased accuracy over the traditional harmonic mean estimator at an increased computational cost. Most often, each model's marginal likelihood will be estimated individually, which leads the resulting Bayes factor to suffer from errors associated with each of these independent estimation processes.
Results: We here assess the original 'model-switch' path sampling approach for direct Bayes factor estimation in phylogenetics, as well as an extension that uses more samples, to construct a direct path between two competing models, thereby eliminating the need to calculate each model's marginal likelihood independently. Further, we provide a competing Bayes factor estimator using an adaptation of the recently introduced stepping-stone sampling algorithm and set out to determine appropriate settings for accurately calculating such Bayes factors, with context-dependent evolutionary models as an example. While we show that modest efforts are required to roughly identify the increase in model fit, only drastically increased computation times ensure the accuracy needed to detect more subtle details of the evolutionary process.
Conclusions: We show that our adaptation of stepping-stone sampling for direct Bayes factor calculation outperforms the original path sampling approach as well as an extension that exploits more samples. Our proposed approach for Bayes factor estimation also has preferable statistical properties over the use of individual marginal likelihood estimates for both models under comparison. Assuming a sigmoid function to determine the path between two competing models, we provide evidence that a single well-chosen sigmoid shape value requires less computational efforts in order to approximate the true value of the (log) Bayes factor compared to the original approach. We show that the (log) Bayes factors calculated using path sampling and stepping-stone sampling differ drastically from those estimated using either of the harmonic mean estimators, supporting earlier claims that the latter systematically overestimate the performance of high-dimensional models, which we show can lead to erroneous conclusions. Based on our results, we argue that highly accurate estimation of differences in model fit for high-dimensional models requires much more computational effort than suggested in recent studies on marginal likelihood estimation
Two-Locus Likelihoods under Variable Population Size and Fine-Scale Recombination Rate Estimation
Two-locus sampling probabilities have played a central role in devising an
efficient composite likelihood method for estimating fine-scale recombination
rates. Due to mathematical and computational challenges, these sampling
probabilities are typically computed under the unrealistic assumption of a
constant population size, and simulation studies have shown that resulting
recombination rate estimates can be severely biased in certain cases of
historical population size changes. To alleviate this problem, we develop here
new methods to compute the sampling probability for variable population size
functions that are piecewise constant. Our main theoretical result, implemented
in a new software package called LDpop, is a novel formula for the sampling
probability that can be evaluated by numerically exponentiating a large but
sparse matrix. This formula can handle moderate sample sizes () and
demographic size histories with a large number of epochs (). In addition, LDpop implements an approximate formula for the sampling
probability that is reasonably accurate and scales to hundreds in sample size
(). Finally, LDpop includes an importance sampler for the posterior
distribution of two-locus genealogies, based on a new result for the optimal
proposal distribution in the variable-size setting. Using our methods, we study
how a sharp population bottleneck followed by rapid growth affects the
correlation between partially linked sites. Then, through an extensive
simulation study, we show that accounting for population size changes under
such a demographic model leads to substantial improvements in fine-scale
recombination rate estimation. LDpop is freely available for download at
https://github.com/popgenmethods/ldpopComment: 32 pages, 13 figure
Probabilistic ToF and Stereo Data Fusion Based on Mixed Pixel Measurement Models
This paper proposes a method for fusing data acquired by a ToF camera and a stereo pair based on a model for depth measurement by ToF cameras which accounts also for depth discontinuity artifacts due to the mixed pixel effect. Such model is exploited within both a ML and a MAP-MRF frameworks for ToF and stereo data fusion. The proposed MAP-MRF framework is characterized by site-dependent range values, a rather important feature since it can be used both to improve the accuracy and to decrease the computational complexity of standard MAP-MRF approaches. This paper, in order to optimize the site dependent global cost function characteristic of the proposed MAP-MRF approach, also introduces an extension to Loopy Belief Propagation which can be used in other contexts. Experimental data validate the proposed ToF measurements model and the effectiveness of the proposed fusion techniques
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