Urban seismic risk index for Medellín, Colombia, based on probabilistic loss and casualties estimations

The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-2056-4Medellín is the second largest city of Colombia with more than 2 million inhabitants according to the latest census and with more than 240,000 public and private buildings. It is located on an intermediate seismic hazard area according to the seismic zonation of Colombia although no destructive earthquakes have occurred having as a consequence low seismic risk awareness among its inhabitants. Using the results of a fully probabilistic risk assessment of the city with a building by building resolution level and considering the dynamic soil response, average annual losses by sectors as well as casualties and other direct effects are obtained and aggregated at county level. Using the holistic evaluation module of the multi-hazard risk assessment CAPRA platform, EvHo, a comprehensive assessment that considered the social fragility and lack or resilience at county level is performed making use of a set of indicators with the objective of capturing the aggravating conditions of the initial physical impact. The urban seismic risk index, USRi, is obtained at county level which is useful to communicate risk to decision-makers and stakeholders besides making easy identifying potential zones that can be problematic in terms of several dimensions of the vulnerability. This case study is an example of how a multidisciplinary research on disaster risk reduction helps to show how risk analysis can be of high relevance for decision-making processes in disaster risk management.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Training of Crisis Mappers and Map Production from Multi-sensor Data: Vernazza Case Study (Cinque Terre National Park, Italy)

This aim of paper is to presents the development of a multidisciplinary project carried out by the cooperation between Politecnico di Torino and ITHACA (Information Technology for Humanitarian Assistance, Cooperation and Action). The goal of the project was the training in geospatial data acquiring and processing for students attending Architecture and Engineering Courses, in order to start up a team of "volunteer mappers". Indeed, the project is aimed to document the environmental and built heritage subject to disaster; the purpose is to improve the capabilities of the actors involved in the activities connected in geospatial data collection, integration and sharing. The proposed area for testing the training activities is the Cinque Terre National Park, registered in the World Heritage List since 1997. The area was affected by flood on the 25th of October 2011. According to other international experiences, the group is expected to be active after emergencies in order to upgrade maps, using data acquired by typical geomatic methods and techniques such as terrestrial and aerial Lidar, close-range and aerial photogrammetry, topographic and GNSS instruments etc.; or by non conventional systems and instruments such us UAV, mobile mapping etc. The ultimate goal is to implement a WebGIS platform to share all the data collected with local authorities and the Civil Protectio

Climate change-induced disasters and cultural heritage: Optimizing management strategies in Central Europe

Due to climate change, it is foreseen that the frequency and magnitude of extreme climate events such as heavy precipitation, flooding and drought will increase throughout Europe. In recent times, numerous areas suffered from disasters that produced significant damage to cultural heritage. Although different risk management strategies are currently enforced in Central Europe, there still exist many challenges that undermine their effectiveness. This study reviews the necessary points to be addressed for strengthening existing management strategies within the region and the characteristics of potential resilience building measures. It presents feasible and tailored ICT solutions (e.g. a web GIS platform) and decision support tools (e.g. a manual for cultural heritage resilience and a handbook on transnational rescue procedures) for the protection of cultural heritage against floods, heavy rain and fire. These tools result from the Interreg Central Europe project ProteCHt2save, concentrating on risk assessment and sustainable protection of cultural heritage in changing environments. The proposed measures are tested at pilot sites and successfully integrated in local risk management plans. Future work is also proposed for further implementation of the results

The adaptation continuum: groundwork for the future

The focus of the program was to understand the challenges posed by climate change and climate variability on vulnerable groups and the policies needed to support climate adaptation in developing countries. The aim of the book is to share this experience in the hope that it will be helpful to those involved in shaping and implementing climate change policy

SIRENE: A Spatial Data Infrastructure to Enhance Communities' Resilience to Disaster-Related Emergency

Abstract Planning in advance to prepare for and respond to a natural hazard-induced disaster-related emergency is a key action that allows decision makers to mitigate unexpected impacts and potential damage. To further this aim, a collaborative, modular, and information and communications technology-based Spatial Data Infrastructure (SDI) called SIRENE—Sistema Informativo per la Preparazione e la Risposta alle Emergenze (Information System for Emergency Preparedness and Response) is designed and implemented to access and share, over the Internet, relevant multisource and distributed geospatial data to support decision makers in reducing disaster risks. SIRENE flexibly searches and retrieves strategic information from local and/or remote repositories to cope with different emergency phases. The system collects, queries, and analyzes geographic information provided voluntarily by observers directly in the field (volunteered geographic information (VGI) reports) to identify potentially critical environmental conditions. SIRENE can visualize and cross-validate institutional and research-based data against VGI reports, as well as provide disaster managers with a decision support system able to suggest the mode and timing of intervention, before and in the aftermath of different types of emergencies, on the basis of the available information and in agreement with the laws in force at the national and regional levels. Testing installations of SIRENE have been deployed in 18 hilly or mountain municipalities (12 located in the Italian Central Alps of northern Italy, and six in the Umbria region of central Italy), which have been affected by natural hazard-induced disasters over the past years (landslides, debris flows, floods, and wildfire) and experienced significant social and economic losses

Seafloor characterization using airborne hyperspectral co-registration procedures independent from attitude and positioning sensors

The advance of remote-sensing technology and data-storage capabilities has progressed in the last decade to commercial multi-sensor data collection. There is a constant need to characterize, quantify and monitor the coastal areas for habitat research and coastal management. In this paper, we present work on seafloor characterization that uses hyperspectral imagery (HSI). The HSI data allows the operator to extend seafloor characterization from multibeam backscatter towards land and thus creates a seamless ocean-to-land characterization of the littoral zone

Earthquake risk assessment using an integrated Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process with Artificial Neural Networks based on GIS: A case study of Sanandaj in Iran

Earthquakes are natural phenomena, which induce natural hazard that seriously threatens urban areas, despite significant advances in retrofitting urban buildings and enhancing the knowledge and ability of experts in natural disaster control. Iran is one of the most seismically active countries in the world. The purpose of this study was to evaluate and analyze the extent of earthquake vulnerability in relation to demographic, environmental, and physical criteria. An earthquake risk assessment (ERA) map was created by using a Fuzzy-Analytic Hierarchy Process coupled with an Artificial Neural Networks (FAHP-ANN) model generating five vulnerability classes. Combining the application of a FAHP-ANN with a geographic information system (GIS) enabled to assign weights to the layers of the earthquake vulnerability criteria. The model was applied to Sanandaj City in Iran, located in the seismically active Sanandaj-Sirjan zone which is frequently affected by devastating earthquakes. The Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) model was implemented in the IDRISI software and 250 points were validated for grades 0 and 1. The validation process revealed that the proposed model can produce an earthquake probability map with an accuracy of 95%. A comparison of the results attained by using a FAHP, AHP and MLP model shows that the hybrid FAHP-ANN model proved flexible and reliable when generating the ERA map. The FAHP-ANN model accurately identified the highest earthquake vulnerability in densely populated areas with dilapidated building infrastructure. The findings of this study are useful for decision makers with a scientific basis to develop earthquake risk management strategies

Valuing adaptation under rapid change

AbstractThe methods used to plan adaptation to climate change have been heavily influenced by scientific narratives of gradual change and economic narratives of marginal adjustments to that change. An investigation of the theoretical aspects of how the climate changes suggests that scientific narratives of climate change are socially constructed, biasing scientific narratives to descriptions of gradual as opposed rapid, non-linear change. Evidence of widespread step changes in recent climate records and in model projections of future climate is being overlooked because of this. Step-wise climate change has the potential to produce rapid increases in extreme events that can cross institutional, geographical and sectoral domains.Likewise, orthodox economics is not well suited to the deep uncertainty faced under climate change, requiring a multi-faceted approach to adaptation. The presence of tangible and intangible values range across five adaptation clusters: goods; services; capital assets and infrastructure; social assets and infrastructure; and natural assets and infrastructure. Standard economic methods have difficulty in giving adequate weight to the different types of values across these clusters. They also do not account well for the inter-connectedness of impacts and subsequent responses between agents in the economy. As a result, many highly-valued aspects of human and environmental capital are being overlooked.Recent extreme events are already pressuring areas of public policy, and national strategies for emergency response and disaster risk reduction are being developed as a consequence. However, the potential for an escalation of total damage costs due to rapid change requires a coordinated approach at the institutional level, involving all levels of government, the private sector and civil society.One of the largest risks of maladaptation is the potential for un-owned risks, as risks propagate across domains and responsibility for their management is poorly allocated between public and private interests, and between the roles of the individual and civil society. Economic strategies developed by the disaster community for disaster response and risk reduction provide a base to work from, but many gaps remain.We have developed a framework for valuing adaptation that has the following aspects: the valuation of impacts thus estimating values at risk, the evaluation of different adaptation options and strategies based on cost, and the valuation of benefits expressed as a combination of the benefits of avoided damages and a range of institutional values such as equity, justice, sustainability and profit.The choice of economic methods and tools used to assess adaptation depends largely on the ability to constrain uncertainty around problems (predictive uncertainty) and solutions (outcome uncertainty). Orthodox methods can be used where both are constrained, portfolio methodologies where problems are constrained and robust methodologies where solutions are constrained. Where both are unconstrained, process-based methods utilising innovation methods and adaptive management are most suitable. All methods should involve stakeholders where possible.Innovative processes methods that enable transformation will be required in some circumstances, to allow institutions, sectors and communities to prepare for anticipated major change.Please cite this report as: Jones, RN, Young, CK, Handmer, J, Keating, A, Mekala, GD, Sheehan, P 2013 Valuing adaptation under rapid change, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast, pp. 192.The methods used to plan adaptation to climate change have been heavily influenced by scientific narratives of gradual change and economic narratives of marginal adjustments to that change. An investigation of the theoretical aspects of how the climate changes suggests that scientific narratives of climate change are socially constructed, biasing scientific narratives to descriptions of gradual as opposed rapid, non-linear change. Evidence of widespread step changes in recent climate records and in model projections of future climate is being overlooked because of this. Step-wise climate change has the potential to produce rapid increases in extreme events that can cross institutional, geographical and sectoral domains.Likewise, orthodox economics is not well suited to the deep uncertainty faced under climate change, requiring a multi-faceted approach to adaptation. The presence of tangible and intangible values range across five adaptation clusters: goods; services; capital assets and infrastructure; social assets and infrastructure; and natural assets and infrastructure. Standard economic methods have difficulty in giving adequate weight to the different types of values across these clusters. They also do not account well for the inter-connectedness of impacts and subsequent responses between agents in the economy. As a result, many highly-valued aspects of human and environmental capital are being overlooked.Recent extreme events are already pressuring areas of public policy, and national strategies for emergency response and disaster risk reduction are being developed as a consequence. However, the potential for an escalation of total damage costs due to rapid change requires a coordinated approach at the institutional level, involving all levels of government, the private sector and civil society.One of the largest risks of maladaptation is the potential for un-owned risks, as risks propagate across domains and responsibility for their management is poorly allocated between public and private interests, and between the roles of the individual and civil society. Economic strategies developed by the disaster community for disaster response and risk reduction provide a base to work from, but many gaps remain.We have developed a framework for valuing adaptation that has the following aspects: the valuation of impacts thus estimating values at risk, the evaluation of different adaptation options and strategies based on cost, and the valuation of benefits expressed as a combination of the benefits of avoided damages and a range of institutional values such as equity, justice, sustainability and profit.The choice of economic methods and tools used to assess adaptation depends largely on the ability to constrain uncertainty around problems (predictive uncertainty) and solutions (outcome uncertainty). Orthodox methods can be used where both are constrained, portfolio methodologies where problems are constrained and robust methodologies where solutions are constrained. Where both are unconstrained, process-based methods utilising innovation methods and adaptive management are most suitable. All methods should involve stakeholders where possible.Innovative processes methods that enable transformation will be required in some circumstances, to allow institutions, sectors and communities to prepare for anticipated major change

Integration of natural hazards, risk and climate change into spatial planning practices

Most countries of Europe, as well as many countries in other parts of the world, are experiencing an increased impact of natural hazards. It is often speculated, but not yet proven, that climate change might influence the frequency and magnitude of certain hydro-meteorological natural hazards. What has certainly been observed is a sharp increase in financial losses caused by natural hazards worldwide. Eventhough Europe appears to be a space that is not affected by natural hazards to such catastrophic extents as other parts of the world are, the damages experienced here are certainly increasing too. Natural hazards, climate change and, in particular, risks have therefore recently been put high on the political agenda of the EU. In the search for appropriate instruments for mitigating impacts of natural hazards and climate change, as well as risks, the integration of these factors into spatial planning practices is constantly receiving higher attention. The focus of most approaches lies on single hazards and climate change mitigation strategies. The current paradigm shift of climate change mitigation to adaptation is used as a basis to draw conclusions and recommendations on what concepts could be further incorporated into spatial planning practices. Especially multi-hazard approaches are discussed as an important approach that should be developed further. One focal point is the definition and applicability of the terms natural hazard, vulnerability and risk in spatial planning practices. Especially vulnerability and risk concepts are so many-fold and complicated that their application in spatial planning has to be analysed most carefully. The PhD thesis is based on six published articles that describe the results of European research projects, which have elaborated strategies and tools for integrated communication and assessment practices on natural hazards and climate change impacts. The papers describe approaches on local, regional and European level, both from theoretical and practical perspectives. Based on these, passed, current and future potential spatial planning applications are reviewed and discussed. In conclusion it is recommended to shift from single hazard assessments to multi-hazard approaches, integrating potential climate change impacts. Vulnerability concepts should play a stronger role than present, and adaptation to natural hazards and climate change should be more emphasized in relation to mitigation. It is outlined that the integration of risk concepts in planning is rather complicated and would need very careful assessment to ensure applicability. Future spatial planning practices should also consider to be more interdisciplinary, i.e. to integrate as many stakeholders and experts as possible to ensure the sustainability of investments.Tässä väitöskirjassa analysoidaan ja tarkastellaan, kuinka yhteiskuntaa voitaisiin suojella aluesuunnittelun keinoin nykyistä paremmin luonnonhasardien ja ilmastonmuutoksen vaikutuksia vastaan. Useat Euroopan ja muun maailman valtiot kärsivät kasvavista luonnonhasardien vaikutuksista ja niiden aiheuttamista taloudellisista tappioista. Usein esitetään, joskaan sitä ei ole vielä tieteellisesti todistettu, että ilmastonmuutos saattaa vaikuttaa eräiden luonnonhasardien esiintymiseen ja voimakkuuteen. Vaikka Eurooppa näyttäisi olevan turvassa muuta maailmaa koettelevilta luonnonkatastrofeilta, myös Euroopassa kärsityt vahingot ovat selvästi lisääntyneet. Tämän vuoksi luonnonhasardit ja ilmastonmuutos ovat hiljattain nostettu keskeiseksi poliittiseksi prioriteetiksi myös Euroopan unionissa. Aluesuunnittelun avulla kyetään hallitsemaan paremmin luonnonhasardien ja mahdollisen ilmastonmuutoksen vaikutuksia. Aluesuunnittelun mahdollisuudet olemassa olevan infrastruktuurin ja rakennuskannan suojelemiseksi ovat rajalliset, mutta sen avulla voidaan ohjata tulevaa maankäyttöä ja siten suojella paremmin tulevaisuuden rakennelmia. Nykyisen käytännön mukaisesti aluesuunnittelussa arvioidaan usein kerrallaan vain yhtä hasardia, kuten tulvia. Väitöskirjan tekijän mukaan yksittäisten hasardien sijaan olisi tärkeää tarkastella laaja-alaisesti useampia vaaratekijöitä samanaikaisesti. Kun kyse on tulvista, pitäisi tutkia myrskyjen, myrskyvuoksien ja tulvien keskinäistä vaikutussuhdetta. Tämän lisäksi olisi arvioitava ilmastonmuutoksen vaikutuksia näihin uhkiin eli tässä tapauksessa myrskyjen lukumäärän mahdollista kasvua ja merenpinnan nousua. Myös altistuminen olisi syytä ottaa paremmin huomioon esimerkiksi sen arvioimiseksi, millaisia vahinkoja luonnonhasardit voivat viime kädessä saada aikaan. Lisäksi olisi selvitettävä tällaisten vahinkojen alueelliset vaikutukset. Työn teoriaosassa käsitellään termien luonnonhasardi, altistuminen ja riski määritelmiä sekä niiden sovellettavuutta aluesuunnitteluun. Tekijä esittää, että arvioinnit ja niitä seuraava kartoitus olisi pidettävä riittävän yksinkertaisina, jotta laaja yleisö voi ymmärtää niitä. Väitöskirja perustuu kuuteen julkaistuun artikkeliin, joissa käsitellään tuloksia eurooppalaisista tutkimushankkeista. Näissä tutkimusprojekteissa on kehitetty menetelmiä luonnonhasardien ja ilmastonmuutoksen identifioimiseen sekä arvioitu niiden laajuutta. Artikkeleissa kuvataan paikallisia, alueellisia (Itämeren alue) ja Euroopan laajuisia hankkeita sekä teoreettisesta että käytännöllisestä näkökulmasta. Tekijä esittää päätelmänään, että luonnonhasardeilla ja ilmastonmuutoksella olisi oltava nykyistä merkittävämpi rooli aluesuunnittelussa. Hasardien keskinäisiin vaikutussuhteisiin olisi syytä kiinnittää enemmän huomiota ja niiden aiheuttamien vahinkojen mahdollista laajuutta olisi arvioitava tarkemmin. Lisäksi olisi suositeltavaa ottaa huomioon asiantuntijoiden ja uhkista mahdollisesti kärsivien ihmisten mielipiteet, jotta vahingot voitaisiin minimoida ja tulevat investoinnit turvata