31,120 research outputs found

    An agent-based fuzzy cognitive map approach to the strategic marketing planning for industrial firms

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    This is the post-print version of the final paper published in Industrial Marketing Management. The published article is available from the link below. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. Copyright @ 2013 Elsevier B.V.Industrial marketing planning is a typical example of an unstructured decision making problem due to the large number of variables to consider and the uncertainty imposed on those variables. Although abundant studies identified barriers and facilitators of effective industrial marketing planning in practice, the literature still lacks practical tools and methods that marketing managers can use for the task. This paper applies fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) to industrial marketing planning. In particular, agent based inference method is proposed to overcome dynamic relationships, time lags, and reusability issues of FCM evaluation. MACOM simulator also is developed to help marketing managers conduct what-if scenarios to see the impacts of possible changes on the variables defined in an FCM that represents industrial marketing planning problem. The simulator is applied to an industrial marketing planning problem for a global software service company in South Korea. This study has practical implication as it supports marketing managers for industrial marketing planning that has large number of variables and their cause–effect relationships. It also contributes to FCM theory by providing an agent based method for the inference of FCM. Finally, MACOM also provides academics in the industrial marketing management discipline with a tool for developing and pre-verifying a conceptual model based on qualitative knowledge of marketing practitioners.Ministry of Education, Science and Technology (Korea

    In Search of Complementarity: Insights from an Exercise in Quantifying Qualitative Energy Futures

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    In this study, we considered a bridging strategy between qualitative and quantitative research with the aim of achieving complementarity. A pilot case study using the Sheffield Elicitation Framework “SHELF” to estimate appropriate inputs for a quantitative energy systems model (based on a qualitative energy future scenario) was used to gain insights. Of novelty are the ethnographic insights of an example translation procedure as well as the methodological approach of the translation procedure itself. This paper reports the findings from this exercise concerning the practicalities of applying such a technique and the observations from the expert elicitation process itself. Based on this pilot, we make two recommendations. The first is the importance of devising a strategy in projects, and research programmes, where bridging between qualitative and quantitative research activities would be most effective. The second is that observations of discussions during the expert elicitation process provide value in the provenance of the estimates for quantitative modelling purposes and provide considerations for further development of qualitative future scenario

    Policy Making for Global Transportation Planning using the Delphi-Scenario Writing with a New Concept of 'Future Vision'

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    The personal trip survey plays a vital role in global, multi-modal transportation planning. The four-step method for estimating travel demand based on data from the personal trip survey has been systematized during the course of long-term studies and practical applications. This method therefore has been widely used in various aspects of transportation planning. However, it is usually concerned with travel demand and very useful in periods of economic expansion. Now that emphasis is being placed on quality because the economy has taken a downturn, the conventional method should be reconsidered in terms of a qualitative, political approach. The present study deals with a new methodology for establishing a qualitative, long-term view of regional requirements. In other words, the purpose of this study is to create a socio-economic vision of the future for proper transportation planning for a target region. This study calls it 'future vision', which consists of several future images when considering the changing characteristics of the region and relationship with surrounding areas. These future images can cover all transportation-related topics, from global problems to local issues. Each future image is composed of scenarios that reflect the future direction and role of transportation planning, which fully describes infrastructures as well as management. Transportation planning experts employed brainstorming to create an initial version of the future vision. The brainstorming brought many important keywords related to the future images. The planners assembled keywords and added sentences to set up scenarios. This version was revised by using the Delphi questionnaire method in order to eliminate obvious errors and improper perspectives, while incorporating missing information. The Delphi method was conducted on researchers, engineers, planners, and administrators that are well versed in transportation planning. A procedure was also developed to update almost automatically according to the results of the questionnaire. The revised version of the future vision was again checked and revised similarly by the Delphi method and the updating procedure. Actually, the future vision was refined twice, which led to the final version of the future vision having a high degree of accuracy and feasibility. The future vision is qualitative and policy-oriented, while the conventional four-step method is quantitative and demand-oriented. Two different approaches should work together for the comprehensive transportation planning. This study finally introduced a hybrid method between the two approaches by discussing a way of linking the future vision with the conventional personal trip survey system. The proposed linkage produced (1) hearing recommendations of various people in many positions, (2) enhancement of the transportation planning by sharing and solving anticipated problems, and (3) incorporation of more policy-oriented planning elements.

    Planning robust policing futures: modelling using multimethodology

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    Purpose – The resourcing of policing activity is characterised by a level of complexity, particularly where evaluating alternative policy options is concerned. In this paper, a case study using multimethodological modelling to compare alternative policy choice in a group context is outlined with respect to response-patrol officer (RPO) deployment within a UK police force. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – The application of a three phase modelling process is illustrated where scenario planning is used to generate the scope of the system elements to be modelled. This is followed by causal mapping to identify the barriers to improving officer resourcing, and system dynamics modelling is used to simulate the impacts of a range of policy options within this policing function. A group model building approach was applied throughout the modelling phases with anexpert group to negotiate a shared view of the structure and dynamics of the resourcing policy challenges. Findings – A fully validated system dynamics model emerged from the multi-phase modelling process which allowed a series of alternative future policy scenarios to be explored and evaluated. Useful policy insights were generated by the system dynamics simulation model which suggested more efficient rules for resource allocation in the police force’s RPO function. Originality/value – The insights from this case study demonstrates that multi-phase modelling has potential application in policy exploration across a range of emergency service providers whoseactions are governed by both variable demand and constrained supply of resourc

    Social science perspectives on natural hazards risk and uncertainty

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    Climate Science, Development Practice, and Policy Interactions in Dryland Agroecological Systems

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    The literature on drought, livelihoods, and poverty suggests that dryland residents are especially vulnerable to climate change. However, assessing this vulnerability and sharing lessons between dryland communities on how to reduce vulnerability has proven difficult because of multiple definitions of vulnerability, complexities in quantification, and the temporal and spatial variability inherent in dryland agroecological systems. In this closing editorial, we review how we have addressed these challenges through a series of structured, multiscale, and interdisciplinary vulnerability assessment case studies from drylands in West Africa, southern Africa, Mediterranean Europe, Asia, and Latin America. These case studies adopt a common vulnerability framework but employ different approaches to measuring and assessing vulnerability. By comparing methods and results across these cases, we draw out the following key lessons: (1) Our studies show the utility of using consistent conceptual frameworks for vulnerability assessments even when quite different methodological approaches are taken; (2) Utilizing narratives and scenarios to capture the dynamics of dryland agroecological systems shows that vulnerability to climate change may depend more on access to financial, political, and institutional assets than to exposure to environmental change; (3) Our analysis shows that although the results of quantitative models seem authoritative, they may be treated too literally as predictions of the future by policy makers looking for evidence to support different strategies. In conclusion, we acknowledge there is a healthy tension between bottom-up/ qualitative/place-based approaches and top-down/quantitative/generalizable approaches, and we encourage researchers from different disciplines with different disciplinary languages, to talk, collaborate, and engage effectively with each other and with stakeholders at all levels
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