Towards homeostatic architecture: simulation of the generative process of a termite mound construction

This report sets out to the theme of the generation of a ‘living’, homeostatic and self-organizing architectural structure. The main research question this project addresses is what innovative techniques of design, construction and materials could prospectively be developed and eventually applied to create and sustain human-made buildings which are mostly adaptive, self-controlled and self-functioning, without option to a vast supply of materials and peripheral services. The hypothesis is that through the implementation of the biological building behaviour of termites, in terms of collective construction mechanisms that are based on environmental stimuli, we could achieve a simulation of the generative process of their adaptive structures, capable to inform in many ways human construction. The essay explicates the development of the 3-dimensional, agent-based simulation of the termite collective construction and analyzes the results, which involve besides physical modelling of the evolved structures. It finally elucidates the potential of this emerging and adaptive architectural performance to be translated to human practice and thus enlighten new ecological engineering and design methodologies

Developing satellite ground control software through graphical models

This paper discusses a program of investigation into software development as graphical modeling. The goal of this work is a more efficient development and maintenance process for the ground-based software that controls unmanned scientific satellites launched by NASA. The main hypothesis of the program is that modeling of the spacecraft and its subsystems, and reasoning about such models, can--and should--form the key activities of software development; by using such models as inputs, the generation of code to perform various functions (such as simulation and diagnostics of spacecraft components) can be automated. Moreover, we contend that automation can provide significant support for reasoning about the software system at the diagram level

Reducing the Probability of False Positive Research Findings by Pre-Publication Validation - Experience with a Large Multiple Sclerosis Database

*Objective*
We have assessed the utility of a pre-publication validation policy in reducing the probability of publishing false positive research findings. 
*Study design and setting*
The large database of the Sylvia Lawry Centre for Multiple Sclerosis Research was split in two parts: one for hypothesis generation and a validation part for confirmation of selected results. We present case studies from 5 finalized projects that have used the validation policy and results from a simulation study.
*Results*
In one project, the "relapse and disability" project as described in section II (example 3), findings could not be confirmed in the validation part of the database. The simulation study showed that the percentage of false positive findings can exceed 20% depending on variable selection. 
*Conclusion*
We conclude that the validation policy has prevented the publication of at least one research finding that could not be validated in an independent data set (and probably would have been a "true" false-positive finding) over the past three years, and has led to improved data analysis, statistical programming, and selection of hypotheses. The advantages outweigh the lost statistical power inherent in the process

The Role of Regulated mRNA Stability in Establishing Bicoid Morphogen Gradient in Drosophila Embryonic Development

The Bicoid morphogen is amongst the earliest triggers of differential spatial pattern of gene expression and subsequent cell fate determination in the embryonic development of Drosophila. This maternally deposited morphogen is thought to diffuse in the embryo, establishing a concentration gradient which is sensed by downstream genes. In most model based analyses of this process, the translation of the bicoid mRNA is thought to take place at a fixed rate from the anterior pole of the embryo and a supply of the resulting protein at a constant rate is assumed. Is this process of morphogen generation a passive one as assumed in the modelling literature so far, or would available data support an alternate hypothesis that the stability of the mRNA is regulated by active processes? We introduce a model in which the stability of the maternal mRNA is regulated by being held constant for a length of time, followed by rapid degradation. With this more realistic model of the source, we have analysed three computational models of spatial morphogen propagation along the anterior-posterior axis: (a) passive diffusion modelled as a deterministic differential equation, (b) diffusion enhanced by a cytoplasmic flow term; and (c) diffusion modelled by stochastic simulation of the corresponding chemical reactions. Parameter estimation on these models by matching to publicly available data on spatio-temporal Bicoid profiles suggests strong support for regulated stability over either a constant supply rate or one where the maternal mRNA is permitted to degrade in a passive manner

Estimation of Conditional Power for Cluster-Randomized Trials with Interval-Censored Endpoints

Cluster-randomized trials (CRTs) of infectious disease preventions often yield correlated, interval-censored data: dependencies may exist between observations from the same cluster, and event occurrence may be assessed only at intermittent clinic visits. This data structure must be accounted for when conducting interim monitoring and futility assessment for CRTs. In this article, we propose a flexible framework for conditional power estimation when outcomes are correlated and interval-censored. Under the assumption that the survival times follow a shared frailty model, we first characterize the correspondence between the marginal and cluster-conditional survival functions, and then use this relationship to semiparametrically estimate the cluster-specific survival distributions from the available interim data. We incorporate assumptions about changes to the event process over the remainder of the trial---as well as estimates of the dependency among observations in the same cluster---to extend these survival curves through the end of the study. Based on these projected survival functions we generate correlated interval-censored observations, and then calculate the conditional power as the proportion of times (across multiple full-data generation steps) that the null hypothesis of no treatment effect is rejected. We evaluate the performance of the proposed method through extensive simulation studies, and illustrate its use on a large cluster-randomized HIV prevention trial

Engineering simulations for cancer systems biology

Computer simulation can be used to inform in vivo and in vitro experimentation, enabling rapid, low-cost hypothesis generation and directing experimental design in order to test those hypotheses. In this way, in silico models become a scientific instrument for investigation, and so should be developed to high standards, be carefully calibrated and their findings presented in such that they may be reproduced. Here, we outline a framework that supports developing simulations as scientific instruments, and we select cancer systems biology as an exemplar domain, with a particular focus on cellular signalling models. We consider the challenges of lack of data, incomplete knowledge and modelling in the context of a rapidly changing knowledge base. Our framework comprises a process to clearly separate scientific and engineering concerns in model and simulation development, and an argumentation approach to documenting models for rigorous way of recording assumptions and knowledge gaps. We propose interactive, dynamic visualisation tools to enable the biological community to interact with cellular signalling models directly for experimental design. There is a mismatch in scale between these cellular models and tissue structures that are affected by tumours, and bridging this gap requires substantial computational resource. We present concurrent programming as a technology to link scales without losing important details through model simplification. We discuss the value of combining this technology, interactive visualisation, argumentation and model separation to support development of multi-scale models that represent biologically plausible cells arranged in biologically plausible structures that model cell behaviour, interactions and response to therapeutic interventions

Model of the evolution of acoustic emission as the randomization of transient processes in coupled nonlinear oscillators

The behavior of a crack as a resonator radiating acoustic emission (AE) pulses at instants of sudden growth is investigated theoretically and experimentally. This resonance behavior of a growing crack is determined to a large extent by surface waves propagating along its edges. The crack can therefore be regarded as an acoustic resonator excited at the instant of growth of its tip. Transformations in the form of high-frequency harmonic and combination-frequency subharmonic generation are observed in the spectra of the AE signals. The final stage in the evolution of AE is characterized by the transition to a wideband noise spectrum. These facts lead to the hypothesis that bifurcations analogous to those encountered in the onset of dynamic chaos take place in the AE process. This hypothesis forms the basis of a mathematical model of the AE process as a system of coupled nonlinear oscillators, each corresponding to an individual crack. The initial displacement in one of the interacting cracks is adopted as the bifurcation parameter. Spectra calculated by computer simulation exhibit qualitative agreement with the evolution of the spectra obtained in the processing of data from physical experiments

Evolution of swarming behavior is shaped by how predators attack

Animal grouping behaviors have been widely studied due to their implications for understanding social intelligence, collective cognition, and potential applications in engineering, artificial intelligence, and robotics. An important biological aspect of these studies is discerning which selection pressures favor the evolution of grouping behavior. In the past decade, researchers have begun using evolutionary computation to study the evolutionary effects of these selection pressures in predator-prey models. The selfish herd hypothesis states that concentrated groups arise because prey selfishly attempt to place their conspecifics between themselves and the predator, thus causing an endless cycle of movement toward the center of the group. Using an evolutionary model of a predator-prey system, we show that how predators attack is critical to the evolution of the selfish herd. Following this discovery, we show that density-dependent predation provides an abstraction of Hamilton's original formulation of ``domains of danger.'' Finally, we verify that density-dependent predation provides a sufficient selective advantage for prey to evolve the selfish herd in response to predation by coevolving predators. Thus, our work corroborates Hamilton's selfish herd hypothesis in a digital evolutionary model, refines the assumptions of the selfish herd hypothesis, and generalizes the domain of danger concept to density-dependent predation.Comment: 25 pages, 11 figures, 5 tables, including 2 Supplementary Figures. Version to appear in "Artificial Life