Modeling the risk of invasion and spread of Tuta absoluta in Africa

Tuta absoluta is an invasive insect that originated from South America and has spread to Europe Africa and Asia. Since its detection in Spain in 2006, the pest is continuing to expand its geographical range, including the recent detection in several Sub-Saharan African countries. The present study proposed a model based on cellular automata to predict year-to-year the risk of the invasion and spread of T. absoluta across Africa. Using, land vegetation cover, temperature, relative humidity and yield of tomato production as key driving factors, we were able to mimic the spreading behavior of the pest, and to understand the role that each of these factors play in the process of propagation of invasion. Simulations by inferring the pest’s natural ability to fly long distance revealed that T. absoluta could reach South of Africa ten years after being detected in Spain (Europe). Findings also reveal that relative humidity and the presence of T. absoluta host plants are important factors for improving the accuracy of the prediction. The study aims to inform stakeholders in plant health, plant quarantine, and pest management on the risks that T. absoluta may cause at local, regional and event global scales. It is suggested that adequate measures should be put in place to stop, control and contain the process used by this pest to expand its range

Urban Agriculture

This book provides useful information about Urban Agriculture, which includes the production of crops in small to large lots, vertical production on walls, windows (window farms), rooftops (green roofs), urban gardens, farmer's markets, economic models of urban gardening, peri-urban agricultural systems, and spatial planning and evolution of the land uses. Additionally, this book elucidates further agricultural technologies, such as the aquaculture systems

Categorical Ontology of Complex Systems, Meta-Systems and Theory of Levels: The Emergence of Life, Human Consciousness and Society

Single cell interactomics in simpler organisms, as well as somatic cell interactomics in multicellular organisms, involve biomolecular interactions in complex signalling pathways that were recently represented in modular terms by quantum automata with ‘reversible behavior’ representing normal cell cycling and division. Other implications of such quantum automata, modular modeling of signaling pathways and cell differentiation during development are in the fields of neural plasticity and brain development leading to quantum-weave dynamic patterns and specific molecular processes underlying extensive memory, learning, anticipation mechanisms and the emergence of human consciousness during the early brain development in children. Cell interactomics is here represented for the first time as a mixture of ‘classical’ states that determine molecular dynamics subject to Boltzmann statistics and ‘steady-state’, metabolic (multi-stable) manifolds, together with ‘configuration’ spaces of metastable quantum states emerging from complex quantum dynamics of interacting networks of biomolecules, such as proteins and nucleic acids that are now collectively defined as quantum interactomics. On the other hand, the time dependent evolution over several generations of cancer cells --that are generally known to undergo frequent and extensive genetic mutations and, indeed, suffer genomic transformations at the chromosome level (such as extensive chromosomal aberrations found in many colon cancers)-- cannot be correctly represented in the ‘standard’ terms of quantum automaton modules, as the normal somatic cells can. This significant difference at the cancer cell genomic level is therefore reflected in major changes in cancer cell interactomics often from one cancer cell ‘cycle’ to the next, and thus it requires substantial changes in the modeling strategies, mathematical tools and experimental designs aimed at understanding cancer mechanisms. Novel solutions to this important problem in carcinogenesis are proposed and experimental validation procedures are suggested. From a medical research and clinical standpoint, this approach has important consequences for addressing and preventing the development of cancer resistance to medical therapy in ongoing clinical trials involving stage III cancer patients, as well as improving the designs of future clinical trials for cancer treatments.\ud \ud \ud KEYWORDS: Emergence of Life and Human Consciousness;\ud Proteomics; Artificial Intelligence; Complex Systems Dynamics; Quantum Automata models and Quantum Interactomics; quantum-weave dynamic patterns underlying human consciousness; specific molecular processes underlying extensive memory, learning, anticipation mechanisms and human consciousness; emergence of human consciousness during the early brain development in children; Cancer cell ‘cycling’; interacting networks of proteins and nucleic acids; genetic mutations and chromosomal aberrations in cancers, such as colon cancer; development of cancer resistance to therapy; ongoing clinical trials involving stage III cancer patients’ possible improvements of the designs for future clinical trials and cancer treatments. \ud \u

The AtollGame Experience: from Knowledge Engineering to a Computer-Assisted Role Playing Game

This paper presents the methodology developed to collect, understand and merge viewpoints coming from different stakeholders in order to build a shared and formal representation of the studied system dealing with groundwater management in the low-lying atoll of Tarawa (Republic of Kiribati). The methodology relies on three successive stages. First, a Global Targeted Appraisal focuses on social group leaders in order to collect different standpoints and their articulated mental models. These collective models are partly validated through Individual Activities Surveys focusing on behavioural patterns of individual islanders. Then, these models are merged into a single conceptual one using qualitative analysis software. This conceptual model is further simplified in order to create a computer-assisted role-playing game.Knowledge Elicitation, Associative Network, Ontology, Water Management, Pacific, Tarawa

Simulating Rural Environmentally and Socio-Economically Constrained Multi-Activity and Multi-Decision Societies in a Low-Data Context: A Challenge Through Empirical Agent-Based Modeling

Development issues in developing countries belong to complex situations where society and environment are intricate. However, such sites lack the necessary amount of reliable, checkable data and information, while these very constraining factors determine the populations' evolutions, such as villagers living in Sahelian environments. Beyond a game-theory model that leads to a premature selection of the relevant variables, we build an individual-centered, empirical, KIDS-oriented (Keep It Descriptive & Simple), and multidisciplinary agent-based model focusing on the villagers\' differential accesses to economic and production activities according to social rules and norms, mainly driven by social criteria from which gender and rank within the family are the most important, as they were observed and registered during individual interviews. The purpose of the work is to build a valid and robust model that overcome this lack of data by building a individual specific system of behaviour rules conditioning these differential accesses showing the long-term catalytic effects of small changes of social rules. The model-building methodology is thereby crucial: the interviewing process provided the behaviour rules and criteria while the context, i.e. the economic, demographic and agro-ecological environment is described following published or unpublished literature. Thanks to a sensitivity analysis on several selected parameters, the model appears fairly robust and sensitive enough. The confidence building simulation outputs reasonably reproduces the dynamics of local situations and is consistent with three authors having investigated in our site. Thanks to its empirical approach and its balanced conception between sociology and agro-ecology at the relevant scale, i.e. the individual tied to social relations, limitations and obligations and connected with his/her biophysical and economic environment, the model can be considered as an efficient "trend provider" but not an absolute "figure provider" for simulating rural societies of the Nigrien Sahel and testing scenarios on the same context. Such ABMs can be a useful interface to analyze social stakes in development projects.Rule-Based Modelling, Rural Sahel, Confidence Building, Low-Data Context, Social Criteria

Urban land cover change detection analysis and modeling spatio-temporal Growth dynamics using Remote Sensing and GIS Techniques: A case study of Dhaka, Bangladesh

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, has undergone radical changes in its physical form, not only in its vast territorial expansion, but also through internal physical transformations over the last decades. In the process of urbanization, the physical characteristic of Dhaka is gradually changing as open spaces have been transformed into building areas, low land and water bodies into reclaimed builtup lands etc. This new urban fabric should be analyzed to understand the changes that have led to its creation. The primary objective of this research is to predict and analyze the future urban growth of Dhaka City. Another objective is to quantify and investigate the characteristics of urban land cover changes (1989-2009) using the Landsat satellite images of 1989, 1999 and 2009. Dhaka City Corporation (DCC) and its surrounding impact areas have been selected as the study area. A fisher supervised classification method has been applied to prepare the base maps with five land cover classes. To observe the change detection, different spatial metrics have been used for quantitative analysis. Moreover, some postclassification change detection techniques have also been implemented. Then it is found that the ‘builtup area’ land cover type is increasing in high rate over the years. The major contributors to this change are ‘fallow land’ and ‘water body’ land cover types. In the next stage, three different models have been implemented to simulate the land cover map of Dhaka city of 2009. These are named as ‘Stochastic Markov (St_Markov)’ Model, ‘Cellular Automata Markov (CA_Markov)’ Model and ‘Multi Layer Perceptron Markov (MLP_Markov)’ Model. Then the best-fitted model has been selected based on various Kappa statistics values and also by implementing other model validation techniques. This is how the ‘Multi Layer Perceptron Markov (MLP_Markov)’ Model has been qualified as the most suitable model for this research. Later, using the MLP_Markov model, the land cover map of 2019 has been predicted. The MLP_Markov model shows that 58% of the total study area will be converted into builtup area cover type in 2019. The interpretation of depicting the future scenario in quantitative accounts, as demonstrated in this research, will be of great value to the urban planners and decision makers, for the future planning of modern Dhaka City

Simulación de la formación de canales de mareas por medio de autómatas celulares y fractales

El objetivo de este trabajo es estudiar y simular la interacción entre los agentes biológicos responsables de modificar el paisaje de las marismas e influir en la formación de canales de marea, en particular el cangrejo Chasmagnatus granulatus y la planta Sarcocornia perennis. La interacción entre la planta y el cangrejo se basa en leyes simples, pero cuyo resultado es un complejo mecanismo biológico que desemboca en un proceso erosivo sobre la marisma y favorece la formación de canales de marea (Escapa et. al. 2003). Estos tipos de problemas basados en leyes simples han sido modelados con buena precisión por modelos de Autómatas Celulares (Dunkerley 1997, Matsinos y Troumbis 2002, Aassine y El Jai 2002, Bandini y Pavesi, 2002 ). En particular se desea recrear las leyes observadas y medidas, para obtener una forma automática de reproducir las perturbaciones biológicas en el terreno y estudiar su efecto en la generación de canales de marea en base al estudio de un modelo digital de terreno resultante. Una simulación exitosa permitiría, entre otras cosas, predecir la formación de canales en lugares en donde sería peligroso o problemático (cercanía de rutas o poblaciones).Eje: Visualización y Computación gráficaRed de Universidades con Carreras en Informática (RedUNCI

Challenges of biofilm control and utilization : lessons from mathematical modelling

Funding This work was supported by a scholarship grant from the School of Natural and Computing Sciences at the University of Aberdeen and the Faculty of Health Sciences at Curtin University.Peer reviewedPostprin

Analysis for biotechnology innovations using Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA):

" Meeting the food needs of the world's growing population while reducing poverty and protecting the environment is a major global challenge. Genetically modified crops appear to provide a promising option to deal with this challenge. However there is a need to make strategic decisions on how to spend limited agricultural research funds in order to achieve a maximum impact with regard to finding sustainable solutions to end hunger and poverty. In international development institutions, there is growing interest in the potential use of Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) as part of a research based Environmental Management System (EMS) to promote mainstreaming of environmental considerations in policy development. SEA was developed as an approach to integrate environmental considerations at a policy level, where alternatives environmental policies can be evaluated. In this paper, we propose using SEA in a policy research and priority setting process regarding new technologies, taking the development of Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs) as an example. We propose that this method would be a useful tool for the international agricultural research centers of the Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), streamlining business processes, strengthening accountability, sharpening the research agenda it supports, fostering broader partnerships, and increasing the relevance and impact of CGIAR research in achieving international development goals. Currently international law requires only Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) of specific biotechnology projects. The incorporation of environmental considerations only at the level of specific projects precludes the adoption of alternative environmental policies. In this review, we outline an SEA approach currently being considered at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) for use in evaluating biotechnology policies. SEA may be a useful tool to inform the evaluation of biotechnology policies and priorities by taking account of information on the economic, social, and environmental benefits, cost and risks of adopting those policies." Authors' AbstractRisk, Strategic Environmental Assessment, Genetically modified organisms, Living modified organisms,