Modelling revenue generation in a dynamically priced mobile telephony service

Dynamic pricing has been used extensively in specific markets for many years but recent years have seen an interest in the utilization of this approach for the deployment of novel and attractive tariff structures for mobile communication services. This paper describes the development and operation of an agent based model (ABM) for subscriber behavior in a dynamically priced mobile telephony network. The design of the ABM was based on an analysis of real call detail records recorded in a Uganda mobile telephony network in which dynamic pricing was deployed. The ABM includes components which simulate subscriber calling behavior, mobility within the network and social linkages. Using this model, this paper reports on an investigation of a number of alternative strategies for the dynamic pricing algorithm which indicate that the network operator will likely experience revenue losses ranging from a 5 %, when the pricing algorithm is based on offering high value subscriber cohort enhanced random discounts compared to a lower value subscriber cohort, to 30 %, when the priding algorithm results in the discount on offer in a cell being inversely proportional to the contemporary cell load. Additionally, the model appears to suggest that the use of optimization algorithms to control the level of discount offered in cells would likely result in discount simply converging to a “no-discount” scenario. Finally, commentary is offered on additional factors which need to be considered when interpreting the results of this work such as the impact of subscriber churn on the size of the subscriber base and the technical and marketing challenges of deploying the various dynamic pricing algorithms which have been investigated

Integrating blended teaching and learning to enhance graduate attributes

The purpose of this paper is to explore the role of computer based business simulations in higher education as innovative tools of teaching and learning to enhance students' practical understanding of real business problems. Whether the integration of business simulation technologies will enable significant innovation in teaching and learning and will significantly enhance the quality and efficiency of traditional management teaching and learning methods is to be examined

Arrival processes in port modeling: insights from a case study

This paper investigates the impact of arrival processes on the ship handling process. Two types of arrival processes are considered: controlled and uncontrolled. Simulation results show that uncontrolled arrivals of ships perform worst in terms of both ship delays and required storage capacity. Stock-controlled arrivals perform best with regard to large vessel delays and storage capacity. The combination of stock-controlled arrivals for large vessels and equidistant arrivals for barges also performs better than the uncontrolled process. Careful allocation of ships to the mooring points of a jetty further improves the efficiency.supply chain management;logistics;simulation;transportation;case study

A review of system dynamics models applied in transportation

It is 20 years since Abbas and Bell [1994. “System Dynamics Applicability to Transportation Modeling.” Transportation Research Part A 28 (5): 373–390] evaluated the strengths and weaknesses of system dynamics (SD) as an approach for modelling in the transportation area. They listed 12 advantages of the approach and in particular suggested it was well suited to strategic issues and that it could provide a useful tool for supporting policy analysis and decision-making in the transport field. This paper sets out a review of over 50 peer-reviewed journal papers since 1994 categorising them by area of application and providing a summary of particular insights raised. The fields of application include the take-up of alternate fuel vehicles, supply chain management affecting transport, highway maintenance, strategic policy, airport infrastructure and airline business cycles and a set of emerging application areas. The paper concludes with recommendations for future application of the SD approach

Sustainable and Dynamic Supply Chain in world Business: Recent Trends

By moving from the "integrated" to the "dynamic" supply chain model, businesses may see their supply chains as flexible ecosystems of people, processes, capital assets, technology, and data. In the rapidly evolving corporate world, effective supply chain management (SCM) is a critical issue. Dynamic SCM necessitates good decision information synchronization and integrated decision-making among autonomous chain partners. Complex supply chains (SCs), which are part of globalised economic systems, must be managed to minimize sustainability-related risks and to manage environmental and social impacts in accordance with the expectations of many stakeholders. The analysis of recent trends has highlighted the fact that use of quantitative modelling techniques for sustainable supply chain management (SSCM) is increasingly becoming more and more popular. Secondly, simulation techniques are underrepresented in SSCM compared to analytical models and mathematical programming. For organizations that are looking to infuse a fresh breath in there SCM operations inclusion of system dynamics (SD) modelling for simulating and analyzing complex and dynamic systems as well as for assisting long-term, strategic decision-making will pay rich dividends.

Supporting strategy using system dynamics

This paper presents a protocol for supporting strategy development via system dynamics (SD) modeling in consultation with Chief Executive Officers (CEOs) of small organizations; it also reports on the effectiveness of this protocol one year after an initial study was conducted. The protocol was applied in five small organizations; it involves the development of a SD model that is used to generate scenarios of alternative strategic situations an organization may face. We found that when the CEOs identified more feedback loops and causal relationships among key resources through their modeling analyses, they increased their capacities to generate new strategic ideas through more developed mental models. However, those CEOs who were not able to generate alternative strategic ideas to overcome the challenges of scenarios presented during the simulation sessions found it difficult to make strategic decisions when the scenarios occurred one year after our intervention. This finding suggests that SD modeling can affect firm performance when the facilitation process helps CEOs reflect on potential strategic actions that can be taken in the future. When CEOs cannot change their strategic plans by imagining what should be done in a challenging scenario, they are not able to address challenging situations when they arise

Statistical thermodynamics for choice models on graphs

Formalism based on equilibrium statistical thermodynamics is applied to communication networks of decision making individuals. It is shown that in statistical ensembles for choice models, properly defined disutility can play the same role as energy in statistical mechanics. We demonstrate additivity and extensivity of disutility and build three types of equilibrium statistical ensembles: the canonical, the grand canonical and the super-canonical. Using Boltzmann-like probability measure one reproduce the logit choice model. We also propose using q-distributions for temperature evolution of moments of stochastic variables. The formalism is applied to three network topologies of different degrees of symmetry, for which in many cases analytic results are obtained and numerical simulations are performed for all of them. Possible applications of the model to airline networks and its usefulness for practical support of economic decisions is pointed out.Comment: 17 pages, 13 figure

Agent based modelling and simulation: An examination of customer retention in the UK mobile market

This thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and awarded by Brunel University.Customer retention is an important issue for any business, especially in mature markets such as the UK mobile market where new customers can only be acquired from competitors. Different methods and techniques have been used to investigate customer retention including statistical methods and data mining. However, due to the increasing complexity of the mobile market, the effectiveness of these techniques is questionable. This study proposes Agent-Based Modelling and Simulation (ABMS) as a novel approach to investigate customer retention. ABMS is an emerging means of simulating behaviour and examining behavioural consequences. In outline, agents represent customers and agent relationships represent processes of agent interaction. This study follows the design science paradigm to build and evaluate a generic, reusable, agent-based (CubSim) model to examine the factors affecting customer retention based on data extracted from a UK mobile operator. Based on these data, two data mining models are built to gain a better understanding of the problem domain and to identify the main limitations of data mining. This is followed by two interrelated development cycles: (1) Build the CubSim model, starting with modelling customer interaction with the market, including interaction with the service provider and other competing operators in the market; and (2) Extend the CubSim model by incorporating interaction among customers. The key contribution of this study lies in using ABMS to identify and model the key factors that affect customer retention simultaneously and jointly. In this manner, the CubSim model is better suited to account for the dynamics of customer churn behaviour in the UK mobile market than all other existing models. Another important contribution of this study is that it provides an empirical, actionable insight on customer retention. In particular, and most interestingly, the experimental results show that applying a mixed customer retention strategy targeting both high value customers and customers with a large personal network outperforms the traditional customer retention strategies, which focuses only on the customer‘s value.This work is funded by the Brunel Department of Information Systems and Computing (DISC

DYNAMOD – A dynamic agent based modelling framework for digital businesses

Digital Businesses have become a major driver for economic growth and have seen an explosion of new startups. At the same time, it also includes mature enterprises that have become global giants in a relatively short period of time. Digital Businesses have unique characteristics that make the running and management of a Digital Business much different from traditional offline businesses. Digital businesses respond to online users who are highly interconnected and networked. This enables a rapid flow of word of mouth, at a pace far greater than ever envisioned when dealing with traditional products and services. The relatively low cost of incremental user addition has led to a variety of innovation in pricing of digital products, including various forms of free and freemium pricing models. This thesis explores the unique characteristics and complexities of Digital Businesses and its implications on the design of Digital Business Models and Revenue Models. The thesis proposes an Agent Based Modeling Framework that can be used to develop Simulation Models that simulate the complex dynamics of Digital Businesses and the user interactions between users of a digital product. Such Simulation models can be used for a variety of purposes such as simple forecasting, analysing the impact of market disturbances, analysing the impact of changes in pricing models and optimising the pricing for maximum revenue generation or a balance between growth in usage and revenue generation. These models can be developed for a mature enterprise with a large historical record of user growth rate as well as for early stage enterprises without much historical data. Through three case studies, the thesis demonstrates the applicability of the Framework and its potential applications.Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) - SFRH/BD/87286/201