Xenophobia and Distribution in France: A Politico-economic Analysis

Anti-immigrant feeling (xenophobia) among voters has been proposed as a key factor explaining why, in the 2002 French national election, Jean Le Pen’s National Front Party won second place. Here, we study the effect of anti-immigrant sentiments among voters on the equilibrium position of political parties on the economic issue, which we take to be the size of the public sector. We model political competition among three parties (Left, Right, and Extreme Right) on a two-dimensional policy space (public sector size, immigration issue) using the PUNE model. We calibrate the model to French data for the election years 1988 and 2002, and show that politics have changed significantly over this period, from being centered primarily on economic issues to being centered on non-economic issues such as the immigration and security/law and order. We estimate that in 2002, the effect of voter xenophobia was to reduce the voters’ choice of public-sector size between 7% and 51% of one standard deviation of the population’s distribution of public-sector size ideal points, from what it would have been, absent xenophobia.Xenophobia, Racism, Distribution, Political equilibrium

The Costs of Favoritism: Is Politically-driven Aid less Effective?

As is now well documented, aid is given for both political as well as economic reasons. The conventional wisdom is that politically-motivated aid is less effective in promoting developmental objectives. We examine the ex-post performance ratings of World Bank projects and generally find that projects that are potentially politically motivated – such as those granted to governments holding a non-permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council or an Executive Directorship at the World Bank – are no more likely, on average, to get a negative quality rating than other projects. When aid is given to Security Council members with higher short-term debt, however, a negative quality rating is more likely. So we find evidence that World Bank project quality suffers as a consequence of political influence only when the recipient country is economically vulnerable in the first place.World Bank, aid effectiveness, political influence, United Nations Security Council

Who Should Govern Congress? Access to Power and the Salary Grab of 1873

We examine the politics of the %u201CSalary Grab%u201D of 1873, legislation that increased congressional salaries retroactively by 50 percent. A group of New England and Midwestern elites opposed the Salary Grab, along with congressional franking and patronage-based civil service appointments, as part of reform effort to reshape %u201Cwho should govern Congress.%u201D Our analyses of congressional voting confirm the existence of this non-party elite coalition. While these elites lost many legislative battles in the short-run, their efforts kept reform on the legislative agenda throughout the late-nineteenth century and ultimately set the stage for the Progressive movement in the early-twentieth century.

Public Confidence in the EU: A Multivariate Analysis of the World Values Survey's Fifth Wave

We analyze public confidence in the EU using the recently released fifth wave (2005-2008) of the World Values Survey. We argue that confidence in the European Union depends on an underlying trust in social and political institutions, and that confidence in the EU does not differ substantially from confidence in other international organizations. In a multivariate regression analysis of individual-level data, we also examine the impact of economic variables, knowledge, and territorial identity

ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK FOR AIR TRAFFIC CONTROLLER’S PRE-SIMULATOR TRAINING

Мета: Розробити нейромережеву модель оцінювання своєчасності та безпомилковості прийняття рішень спеціалістом з обслуговування повітряного руху в процесі передтренажерної підготовки. Методи: Дослідження базуються на основних положеннях концепції контролю факторів загроз та помилок при управлінні повітряним рухом, для характеристики складності ситуації (загроза-помилка-небажаний стан) використано методи експертних оцінок та теорії нечітких множин. Результати: Класифіковано етапи розвитку конфліктної ситуації та визначено кількісні показники рівня складності на кожному з етапів. Побудовано чотирьохшарову нейромережеву модель оцінювання своєчасності та безпомилковості прийняття рішень авіадиспетчером в процесі передтренажерної підготовки та отримано її параметри. Перший шар (вхідний) нейронної мережі представляє собою вправи, які виконують курсанти/слухачі, другий шар (схований) визначає психофізіологічні характеристики того, хто навчається, третій шар (схований) враховує складність вправи залежно від кількості потенційно конфліктних ситуацій, четвертий шар (вихідний) – оцінка курсанта/слухача при виконанні вправи. Нейромережева модель також має додаткові входи (зсув), що включають обмеження на обчислювальні параметри. За допомогою моделюючого комплексу Fusion отримано візуалізацію результатів виконання навчальної вправи авіадиспетчером за вказаними критеріями. Обговорення: Врахування критеріїв безпомилковості та своєчасності виконання поставлених інструктором завдань в процесі передтренажерного навчання за допомогою використання штучних нейронних мереж дозволить визначати можливість допуску спеціаліста з обслуговування повітряного руху до тренажерної підготовки. Мультимодульна система Fusion дасть можливість удосконалити процес професійної підготовки курсантів / слухачів – авіадиспетчерів завдяки автоматизації оцінювання їхніх дій.Цель: разработать нейросетевую модель оценивания своевременности и безошибочности принятия решений специалистом по обслуживанию воздушного движения в процессе предтренажерной подготовки. Методы: Исследования базируются на основных положениях концепции контроля факторов угроз и ошибок при управлении воздушным движением, для характеристики сложности ситуации (угроза-ошибка-нежелательное состояние) использованы методы экспертных оценок и теории нечетких множеств. Результаты: Классифицированы этапы развития конфликтной ситуации и определены количественные показатели уровня сложности на каждом этапе. Построена чотырехслойная нейросетевая модель оценивания своевременности и безошибочности принятия решений авиадиспетчером в процессе предтренажерной подготовки и получены ее параметры. Первый слой (входной) нейронной сети представляет собою упражнения, которые выполняют курсанты/слушатели, второй слой (скрытый) определяет психофизиологические характеристики обучаемого, третий слой (скрытый) учитывает сложность упражнения в зависимости от количества потенциально конфликтных ситуаций, четвертый слой (выходной) – оценка курсанта/слушателя при выполнении упражнения. Нейросетевая модель также имеет дополнительные входы (сдвиг), которые включают ограничения на вычисляемые параметры. С помощью моделирующего комплекса Fusіon получена визуализация результатов выполнения учебного упражнения авиадиспетчером за указанными критериями. Обсуждение: Учет критериев безошибочности и своевременности выполнения поставленных инструктором задач в процессе предтренажерного обучения с помощью использования искусственных нейронных сетей позволит определять возможность допуска специалиста по обслуживанию воздушного движения к тренажерной подготовке. Мультимодульная система Fusіon даст возможность усовершенствовать процесс профессиональной подготовки курсантов/слушателей – авиадиспетчеров благодаря автоматизации оценивания их действий.Purpose: to develop the neural network model for evaluating correctness and timeliness of decision-making by specialist of air traffic services during the pre-simulator training. Methods: researchers are based on the basic concepts of threat and error management in air traffic control, for characteristic of situation complexity (threat- error-undesirable condition) the methods of expert estimation and fuzzy sets theory have been used. Results: stages of the conflict situation developing have been classified and quantitative indicators of complexity level at each stage have been defined. Four layers neural network model for evaluating correctness and timeliness of decision-making by air traffic controller during the pre-simulator training has been built and its parameters have been obtained. The first layer (input) is exercises that perform cadets/listeners to solve potentially conflict situation, the second layer (hidden) is physiological characteristics of learner, the third layer (hidden) is the complexity of the exercise depending on the number of potentially conflict situations, the fourth layer (output) is assessment of cadets/listeners during performance of exercise. Neural network model also has additional inputs (Bias) that including restrictions on calculating parameters. With the help of modelling complex Fusion visualisation of results of educational task implementation by air traffic controller according to specified parameters have been defined. Discussion: taking into account timeliness and correctness of instructor’s tasks performance during the pre-simulator education with the help of using artificial neural networks will allow determining the possibility of access of specialist of air traffic services to simulator training. Multimodal system Fusion will give the possibility to improve the process of training of cadet's/listener's – air traffic controllers through automated assessment of their actions

Power Quality Disturbance Detection and Classification

Power quality (PQ) monitoring is an essential service that many utilities perform for their industrial and larger commercial customers. Detecting and classifying the different electrical disturbances which can cause PQ problems is a difficult task that requires a high level of engineering knowledge. The vast majority of the disturbances are non-stationary and transitory in nature subsequently it requires advanced instruments and procedures for the examination of PQ disturbances. In this work a hybrid procedure is utilized for describing PQ disturbances utilizing wavelet transform and fuzzy logic. A no of PQ occasions are produced and decomposed utilizing wavelet decomposition algorithm of wavelet transform for exact recognition of disturbances. It is likewise watched that when the PQ disturbances are contaminated with noise the identification gets to be troublesome and the feature vectors to be separated will contain a high amount of noise which may corrupt the characterization precision. Consequently a Wavelet based denoising system is proposed in this work before feature extraction process. Two extremely distinct features basic to all PQ disturbances like Energy and Total Harmonic Distortion (THD) are separated utilizing discrete wavelet transform and is nourished as inputs to the fuzzy expert system for precise recognition and order of different PQ disturbances. The fuzzy expert system classifies the PQ disturbances as well as demonstrates whether the disturbance is unadulterated or contains harmonics. A neural network based Power Quality Disturbance (PQD) recognition framework is additionally displayed executing Multilayer Feedforward Neural Network (MFNN)

Productivity Premia for German Manufacturing Firms Exporting to the Euro-Area and Beyond: First Evidence from Robust Fixed Effects Estimations

This paper makes three contributions. (1) It summarizes in tabular form a recent literature made of 36 micro-econometric studies for 16 different countries on the relationship between export destination and firm performance. (2) It reports estimates of the productivity premium of German firms exporting to the Euro-zone and beyond, controlling for unobserved time invariant firm specific effects, and tests for self-selection of more productive firms into exporting beyond the Euro-zone. (3) It corrects a serious flaw in hitherto published studies that ignore the potentially disastrous consequences of extreme observations, or outliers. The paper shows that estimates of the exporter productivity premium by destination are driven by a small share of outliers. Using a "clean" sample without outliers the estimated productivity premium of firms that export to the Euro-zone only is no longer much smaller that the premium of firms that export beyond the Euro-zone, too, and the premium itself over firms that serve the German market only is tiny. Furthermore, an ex-ante differential that is statistically significant and large only shows up for enterprises that exported to the Euro-zone already and start to export to countries outside the Euro-zone. These conclusions differ considerably from those based on non-robust standard regression analyses.robust estimation, panel data, exporter productivity premium, export destinations

Identifying and Quantifying Factors Determining Dynamic Vanpooling Use

Nowadays, the growth of traffic congestion and emissions has led to the emergence of an innovative and sustainable transportation service, called dynamic vanpooling. The main aim of this study is to identify factors affecting the travel behavior of passengers due to the introduction of dynamic vanpooling in the transportation system. A web-based mode choice survey was designed and implemented for this scope. The stated-preference experiments offered respondents binary hypothetical scenarios with an ordered choice between dynamic vanpool and the conventional modes of transport, private car and public transportation. In-vehicle travel time, total travel cost and walking and waiting time or searching time for parking varies across the choice scenarios. An ordered probit model, a multinomial logit model and two binary logit models were specified. The model estimation results indicate that respondents who are aged between 26 and 35 years old, commute with PT or are members of bike-sharing services were significantly more likely to choose dynamic vanpool or PT than private car. Moreover, respondents who are worried about climate change and are willing to spend more for environmentally friendly products are significantly more likely to use dynamic vanpool in comparison with private cars. Finally, to indicate the model estimation results for dynamic vanpool, the value of in-vehicle travel time is found to be 12.2€ per hour (13.4€ for Munich subsample)

Unfoxing Judicial Review of Agency Policy Reversals or “We Were Told to Like the New Policy Better” is Not a Good Reason to Change

Part I of this Article provides context for the debate over the Fox power by tracing the evolution of leading efforts over the last century to legitimize agency policymaking and close the “democracy deficit” that it purportedly creates. Part I focuses in particular on the courts’ development of arbitrariness review as a means of controlling agency policymaking, and it also pays particular attention to the “presidentialist” model that White House control of agency policymaking democratizes and legitimizes it. Part II takes a close look at the Fox litigation itself. This discussion reveals that Justice Scalia’s Fox power, like presidentialism, presupposes that extra-statutory political influences wielded by elected officials and their proxies can legitimize agency policy changes. Part III criticizes this framework for resting on an unrealistic understanding of democratic governance and electoral accountability, and it explains why Justice Breyer was right to insist that agencies should give (expert) answers to his “Why change?” query