Bayesian Sequential Design Based on Dual Objectives for Accelerated Life Tests

Traditional accelerated life test plans are typically based on optimizing the C-optimality for minimizing the variance of an interested quantile of the lifetime distribution. The traditional methods rely on some specified planning values for the model parameters, which are usually unknown prior to the actual tests. The ambiguity of the specified parameters can lead to suboptimal designs for optimizing the intended reliability performance. In this paper, we propose a sequential design strategy for life test plans based on considering dual objectives. In the early stage of the sequential experiment, we suggest to allocate more design locations based on optimizing the D-optimality to quickly gain precision in the estimated model parameters. In the later stage of the experiment, we can allocate more samples based on optimizing the C-optimality to maximize the precision of the estimated quantile of the lifetime distribution. We compare the proposed sequential design strategy with existing test plans considering only a single criterion and illustrate the new method with an example on fatigue testing of polymer composites.Comment: 17 page

Closed-loop optimization of fast-charging protocols for batteries with machine learning.

Simultaneously optimizing many design parameters in time-consuming experiments causes bottlenecks in a broad range of scientific and engineering disciplines1,2. One such example is process and control optimization for lithium-ion batteries during materials selection, cell manufacturing and operation. A typical objective is to maximize battery lifetime; however, conducting even a single experiment to evaluate lifetime can take months to years3-5. Furthermore, both large parameter spaces and high sampling variability3,6,7 necessitate a large number of experiments. Hence, the key challenge is to reduce both the number and the duration of the experiments required. Here we develop and demonstrate a machine learning methodology  to efficiently optimize a parameter space specifying the current and voltage profiles of six-step, ten-minute fast-charging protocols for maximizing battery cycle life, which can alleviate range anxiety for electric-vehicle users8,9. We combine two key elements to reduce the optimization cost: an early-prediction model5, which reduces the time per experiment by predicting the final cycle life using data from the first few cycles, and a Bayesian optimization algorithm10,11, which reduces the number of experiments by balancing exploration and exploitation to efficiently probe the parameter space of charging protocols. Using this methodology, we rapidly identify high-cycle-life charging protocols among 224 candidates in 16 days (compared with over 500 days using exhaustive search without early prediction), and subsequently validate the accuracy and efficiency of our optimization approach. Our closed-loop methodology automatically incorporates feedback from past experiments to inform future decisions and can be generalized to other applications in battery design and, more broadly, other scientific domains that involve time-intensive experiments and multi-dimensional design spaces

Accelerated Life Testing Of Subsea Equipment Under Hydrostatic Pressure

Accelerated Life Testing (ALT) is an effective method of demonstrating and improving product reliability in applications where the products are expected to perform for a long period of time. ALT accelerates a given failure mode by testing at amplified stress level(s) in excess of operational limits. Statistical analysis (parameter estimation) is then performed on the data, based on an acceleration model to make life predictions at use level. The acceleration model thus forms the basis of accelerated life testing methodology. Well established accelerated models such as the Arrhenius model and the Inverse Power Law (IPL) model exist for key stresses such as temperature and voltage. But there are other stresses like subsea pressure, where there is no clear model of choice. This research proposes a pressure-life (acceleration) model for the first time for life prediction under subsea pressure for key mechanical/physical failure mechanisms. Three independent accelerated tests were conducted and their results analyzed to identify the best model for the pressure-life relationship. The testing included material tests in standard coupons to investigate the effect of subsea pressure on key physical, mechanical, and electrical properties. Tests were also conducted at the component level on critical components that function as a pressure barrier. By comparing the likelihood values of multiple reasonable candidate models for the individual tests, the exponential model was identified as a good model for the pressure-life relationship. In addition to consistently providing good fit among the three tests, the exponential model was also consistent with field data (validation with over 10 years of field data) and demonstrated several characteristics that enable robust life predictions in a variety iv of scenarios. In addition the research also used the process of Bayesian analysis to incorporate prior information from field and test data to bolster the results and increase the confidence in the predictions from the proposed model

The application of Bayesian change point detection in UAV fuel systems

AbstractA significant amount of research has been undertaken in statistics to develop and implement various change point detection techniques for different industrial applications. One of the successful change point detection techniques is Bayesian approach because of its strength to cope with uncertainties in the recorded data. The Bayesian Change Point (BCP) detection technique has the ability to overcome the uncertainty in estimating the number and location of change point due to its probabilistic theory. In this paper we implement the BCP detection technique to a laboratory based fuel rig system to detect the change in the pre-valve pressure signal due to a failure in the valve. The laboratory test-bed represents a Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) fuel system and its associated electrical power supply, control system and sensing capabilities. It is specifically designed in order to replicate a number of component degradation faults with high accuracy and repeatability so that it can produce benchmark datasets to demonstrate and assess the efficiency of the BCP algorithm. Simulation shows satisfactory results of implementing the proposed BCP approach. However, the computational complexity, and the high sensitivity due to the prior distribution on the number and location of the change points are the main disadvantages of the BCP approac

Simulation-based Bayesian optimal ALT designs for model discrimination

Accelerated life test (ALT) planning in Bayesian framework is studied in this paper with a focus of differentiating competing acceleration models, when there is uncertainty as to whether the relationship between log mean life and the stress variable is linear or exhibits some curvature. The proposed criterion is based on the Hellinger distance measure between predictive distributions. The optimal stress-factor setup and unit allocation are determined at three stress levels subject to test-lab equipment and test-duration constraints. Optimal designs are validated by their recovery rates, where the true, data-generating, model is selected under the DIC (Deviance Information Criterion) model selection rule, and by comparing their performance with other test plans. Results show that the proposed optimal design method has the advantage of substantially increasing a test plan׳s ability to distinguish among competing ALT models, thus providing better guidance as to which model is appropriate for the follow-on testing phase in the experiment.NOTICE: this is the author's version of a work that was accepted for publication in RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY, 134, 1-9. DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2014.10.00