The Effects of Twitter Sentiment on Stock Price Returns

Social media are increasingly reflecting and influencing behavior of other complex systems. In this paper we investigate the relations between a well-know micro-blogging platform Twitter and financial markets. In particular, we consider, in a period of 15 months, the Twitter volume and sentiment about the 30 stock companies that form the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index. We find a relatively low Pearson correlation and Granger causality between the corresponding time series over the entire time period. However, we find a significant dependence between the Twitter sentiment and abnormal returns during the peaks of Twitter volume. This is valid not only for the expected Twitter volume peaks (e.g., quarterly announcements), but also for peaks corresponding to less obvious events. We formalize the procedure by adapting the well-known "event study" from economics and finance to the analysis of Twitter data. The procedure allows to automatically identify events as Twitter volume peaks, to compute the prevailing sentiment (positive or negative) expressed in tweets at these peaks, and finally to apply the "event study" methodology to relate them to stock returns. We show that sentiment polarity of Twitter peaks implies the direction of cumulative abnormal returns. The amount of cumulative abnormal returns is relatively low (about 1-2%), but the dependence is statistically significant for several days after the events

Analyzing Disproportionate Reaction via Comparative Multilingual Targeted Sentiment in Twitter

Global events such as terrorist attacks are commented upon in social media, such as Twitter, in different languages and from different parts of the world. Most prior studies have focused on monolingual sentiment analysis, and therefore excluded an extensive proportion of the Twitter userbase. In this paper, we perform a multilingual comparative sentiment analysis study on the terrorist attack in Paris, during November 2015. In particular, we look at targeted sentiment, investigating opinions on specific entities, not simply the general sentiment of each tweet. Given the potentially inflammatory and polarizing effect that these types of tweets may have on attitudes, we examine the sentiments expressed about different targets and explore whether disproportionate reaction was expressed about such targets across different languages. Specifically, we assess whether the sentiment for French speaking Twitter users during the Paris attack differs from English-speaking ones. We identify disproportionately negative attitudes in the English dataset over the French one towards some entities and, via a crowdsourcing experiment, illustrate that this also extends to forming an annotator bias

Robust Image Sentiment Analysis Using Progressively Trained and Domain Transferred Deep Networks

Sentiment analysis of online user generated content is important for many social media analytics tasks. Researchers have largely relied on textual sentiment analysis to develop systems to predict political elections, measure economic indicators, and so on. Recently, social media users are increasingly using images and videos to express their opinions and share their experiences. Sentiment analysis of such large scale visual content can help better extract user sentiments toward events or topics, such as those in image tweets, so that prediction of sentiment from visual content is complementary to textual sentiment analysis. Motivated by the needs in leveraging large scale yet noisy training data to solve the extremely challenging problem of image sentiment analysis, we employ Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN). We first design a suitable CNN architecture for image sentiment analysis. We obtain half a million training samples by using a baseline sentiment algorithm to label Flickr images. To make use of such noisy machine labeled data, we employ a progressive strategy to fine-tune the deep network. Furthermore, we improve the performance on Twitter images by inducing domain transfer with a small number of manually labeled Twitter images. We have conducted extensive experiments on manually labeled Twitter images. The results show that the proposed CNN can achieve better performance in image sentiment analysis than competing algorithms.Comment: 9 pages, 5 figures, AAAI 201

Is That Twitter Hashtag Worth Reading

Online social media such as Twitter, Facebook, Wikis and Linkedin have made a great impact on the way we consume information in our day to day life. Now it has become increasingly important that we come across appropriate content from the social media to avoid information explosion. In case of Twitter, popular information can be tracked using hashtags. Studying the characteristics of tweets containing hashtags becomes important for a number of tasks, such as breaking news detection, personalized message recommendation, friends recommendation, and sentiment analysis among others. In this paper, we have analyzed Twitter data based on trending hashtags, which is widely used nowadays. We have used event based hashtags to know users' thoughts on those events and to decide whether the rest of the users might find it interesting or not. We have used topic modeling, which reveals the hidden thematic structure of the documents (tweets in this case) in addition to sentiment analysis in exploring and summarizing the content of the documents. A technique to find the interestingness of event based twitter hashtag and the associated sentiment has been proposed. The proposed technique helps twitter follower to read, relevant and interesting hashtag.Comment: 10 pages, 6 figures, Presented at the Third International Symposium on Women in Computing and Informatics (WCI-2015

The Early Bird Catches The Term: Combining Twitter and News Data For Event Detection and Situational Awareness

Twitter updates now represent an enormous stream of information originating from a wide variety of formal and informal sources, much of which is relevant to real-world events. In this paper we adapt existing bio-surveillance algorithms to detect localised spikes in Twitter activity corresponding to real events with a high level of confidence. We then develop a methodology to automatically summarise these events, both by providing the tweets which fully describe the event and by linking to highly relevant news articles. We apply our methods to outbreaks of illness and events strongly affecting sentiment. In both case studies we are able to detect events verifiable by third party sources and produce high quality summaries

The Effects of Twitter Sentiment on Stock Price Returns

Social media are increasingly reflecting and influencing behavior of other complex systems. In this paper we investigate the relations between a well-known micro-blogging platform Twitter and financial markets. In particular, we consider, in a period of 15 months, the Twitter volume and sentiment about the 30 stock companies that form the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index.We find a relatively low Pearson correlation and Granger causality between the corresponding time series over the entire time period. However, we find a significant dependence between the Twitter sentiment and abnormal returns during the peaks of Twitter volume. This is valid not only for the expected Twitter volume peaks (e.g., quarterly announcements), but also for peaks corresponding to less obvious events. We formalize the procedure by adapting the well-known "event study" from economics and finance to the analysis of Twitter data. The procedure allows to automatically identify events as Twitter volume peaks, to compute the prevailing sentiment (positive or negative) expressed in tweets at these peaks, and finally to apply the "event study" methodology to relate them to stock returns. We show that sentiment polarity of Twitter peaks implies the direction of cumulative abnormal returns. The amount of cumulative abnormal returns is relatively low (about 1-2%), but the dependence is statistically significant for several days after the events

Exploring Sentiment Analysis on Twitter: Investigating Public Opinion on Migration in Brazil from 2015 to 2020

openTechnology has reshaped societal interaction and the expression of opinions. Migration is a prominent trend, and analysing social media discussions provides insights into societal perspectives. This thesis explores how events between 2015 and 2020 impacted Brazilian sentiment on Twitter about migrants and refugees. Its aim was to uncover the influence of key sociopolitical events on public sentiment, clarifying how these echoed in the digital realm. Four key objectives guided this research: (a) understanding public opinions on migrants and refugees, (b) investigating how events influenced Twitter sentiment, (c) identifying terms used in migration-related tweets, and (d) tracking sentiment shifts, especially concerning changes in government. Sentiment analysis using VADER (Valence Aware Dictionary and sEntiment Reasoner) was employed to analyse tweet data. The use of computational methods in social sciences is gaining traction, yet no analysis has been conducted before to understand the sentiments of the Brazilian population regarding migration. The analysis underscored Twitter's role in reflecting and shaping public discourse, offering insights into how major events influenced discussions on migration. In conclusion, this study illuminated the landscape of Brazilian sentiment on migration, emphasizing the significance of innovative social media analysis methodologies for policymaking and societal inclusivity in the digital age