Sensitivity analysis of a hierarchical qualitative model – the analysis of MASC

AbstractSensitivity Analysis (SA) is applied to a hierarchical qualitative model built to assess the sustainability of cropping systems. Three approaches were tested to perform a first-order SA on such a model, assuming a fixed model structure and no correlation among input variables: (i) factorial designs combined with analysis of variance (ANOVA), (ii) conditional probabilities, (iii) Monte Carlo sampling (MC). If the complete factorial design is too large to be computed, MC and conditional probabilities represent efficient alternatives to perform an analysis of the overall qualitative model. Conditional probabilities exploit the hierarchical structure of the model to give exact first-order indices, while MC could be a more flexible approach for the introduction of correlations among variables. We discuss how such SA results can guide modellers and end-users in modelling and application phases

Exploring Agricultural Production Systems and Their Fundamental Components with System Dynamics Modelling

Agricultural production in the United States is undergoing marked changes due to rapid shifts in consumer demands, input costs, and concerns for food safety and environmental impact. Agricultural production systems are comprised of multidimensional components and drivers that interact in complex ways to influence production sustainability. In a mixed-methods approach, we combine qualitative and quantitative data to develop and simulate a system dynamics model that explores the systemic interaction of these drivers on the economic, environmental and social sustainability of agricultural production. We then use this model to evaluate the role of each driver in determining the differences in sustainability between three distinct production systems: crops only, livestock only, and an integrated crops and livestock system. The result from these modelling efforts found that the greatest potential for sustainability existed with the crops only production system. While this study presents a stand-alone contribution to sector knowledge and practice, it encourages future research in this sector that employs similar systems-based methods to enable more sustainable practices and policies within agricultural production

Issues in evaluating sustainability of farming systems with indicators

The growing concern about side-effects of policies focusing on economic growth or even technological innovations, as well as agriculture intensification leads more and more stakeholders to pay attention to the questions of monitoring and evaluation of agricultural practices. This step of evaluation is now essential in policy decision, in research and design of innovative solutions, in NGOs' development projects, as well as in improvement process in ISO certification. The aim of this article is to review steps in the evaluation of sustainability in agriculture, starting in a first section with the necessity to develop a conceptual indicator framework to precise evaluators' own vision of sustainability. In a second section, we address the necessity to answer preliminary questions that will guide the selection of a set of indicators or an assessment method. In a third section, after discussing the way to categorize indicators, we provide an overview of available indicators for two sustainability themes of the environmental dimension regarding respectively nitrogen management and biodiversity. In a fourth section, we highlight the diversity of evaluation methods of sustainability through six examples in France. Finally we conclude the article with a general discussion on questions that remain to address. (Résumé d'auteur

Development of a conceptual framework for integrated analysis and assessment of agricultural systems in SEAMLESS-IF

Production Economics,

Training materials for different categories of users

Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Farm Management, Land Economics/Use, Production Economics, Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession,

Sustainable Development Indicator Frameworks and Initiatives

Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Farm Management, Production Economics,

Multi-criteria assessment of less favoured areas: A state level

The paper present a multi-criteria decision DEXi model for assessment of less favoured areas (LFAs). The tool enables easier assessment of farming in different areas of Slovene LFAs with respect to criteria of sustainability. Analysis of LFAs and final integration of the assessment of LFAs depend upon various criteria. In this paper we analyze individual LFAs and farming systems in these areas at the state level with respect to criteria of sustainability and farming potential