The role of learning on industrial simulation design and analysis

The capability of modeling real-world system operations has turned simulation into an indispensable problemsolving methodology for business system design and analysis. Today, simulation supports decisions ranging from sourcing to operations to finance, starting at the strategic level and proceeding towards tactical and operational levels of decision-making. In such a dynamic setting, the practice of simulation goes beyond being a static problem-solving exercise and requires integration with learning. This article discusses the role of learning in simulation design and analysis motivated by the needs of industrial problems and describes how selected tools of statistical learning can be utilized for this purpose

The Attitude Toward Probabilities of Portfolio Managers : an Experimental Study

This paper proposes an experiment about the attitude toward probabilities on a population of portfolio managers. Its aim is to check whether or not portfolio managers are neutral toward probabilities. Meanwhile, it presents a experimental protocole that highlights an inconsistency between two experimental techniques. It also introduces a new functional form for the probability weighting function. Results unambiguously show that portfolio managers are not neutral toward probabilities and that they display a strong heterogeneity in their preferences.Attitude toward probabilities, probability weighting function, expected utility, rank dependent expected utility, experimental economics, decision under risk.

Tax compliance with uncertain income: a stochastic control model

This paper examines the compliance behaviour of a taxpayer endowed with a stochastic income, taking into account dynamical factors as public and private investments, within a stochastic control framework. Assuming logarithmic utilities and thanks to a suitable rewrite of the problem, we provide an existence and uniqueness result for the solution of the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation associated to the control problem, and we rely on a symbolic and numerical algorithm to study its solution. Moreover, we implement a Monte Carlo simulation in order to determine an estimate of the mean and the variance of the total declared income together with a confidence interval. To illustrate how the method works, we present a computational example where we assign values to the parameters. In this case we perform a sensitivity analysis, showing how the total declared income is affected by public and private investments, probability of being discovered, fine, tax rate and income uncertainty

Optimal portfolio and spending rules for endowment funds

We investigate the role of different spending rules in a dynamic asset allocation model for university endowment funds. In particular, we consider the fixed consumption-wealth ratio (CW) rule and the hybrid rule which smoothes spending over time. We derive the optimal portfolios under these two strategies and compare them with a theoretically optimal (Merton) strategy. We show that the optimal portfolio with habit is less risky compared to the optimal portfolio without habit. A calibrated numerical analysis on U.S. data shows, similarly, that the optimal portfolio under the hybrid strategy is less risky than the optimal portfolios under both the CW and the classical Merton strategies, in typical market conditions. Our numerical analysis also shows that spending under the hybrid strategy is less volatile than the other strategies. Thus, endowments following the hybrid spending rule use asset allocation to protect spending. However, in terms of the endowment’s wealth, the hybrid strategy comparatively outperforms the conventional Merton and CW strategies when the market is highly volatile but under-performs them when there is strong stock market growth and low volatility. Overall, the hybrid strategy is effective in terms of stability of spending and intergenerational equity because, even if it allows short-term fluctuation in spending, it ensures greater stability in the long run

A Note on Equity Premia in Markets with Heterogeneous Agents

We analyze a static partial equilibrium model where the agents are not only heterogeneous in their beliefs about the return on risky assets but also in their attitude to it. While some agents in the economy are subjective utility maximizers others behave ambiguity averse in the sense of Knight (1921). If ambiguity averse agents meet overly optimistic subjective utility maximizers in the market lower equity premia can arise in the equilibrium than in a purely subjective utility framework.Ambiguity, Partial Equilibrium, Heterogeneous Agents, No-Trade Interval

An Experiment in the Economic Consequences of Additional Disclosure: The Case of the Fair Value of Unlisted Equity Investments

We investigate the economic consequences of additional disclosure about assets with no active market in terms of liquidity, perception of information reliability and relevance. We use an experimental design: 181 MBA students are asked to value 24 investments. We manipulate the level of disclosure on the fair value of assets (Limited versus Full), the perception of expected profit (Gain versus Loss) and the firm's business risk (Low versus High). In the case of Limited (resp. Full) disclosure, participants are given a point estimate for the fair value of the investment (resp. plus a range of possible fair values). We find that in the Full disclosure situation, participants tend to make an offer more frequently, to bid prices lower than the fair value and to earn a lower return on their investments compared to the Limited disclosure case. These consequences vary with the environment (expected profit and risk).fair value; fair value measurement; disclosure; relevance; reliability; risk; SFAS 157; IFRS 7

Investors Facing Risk: Loss Aversion and Wealth Allocation Between Risky and Risk-Free Assets

This paper studies the impact of loss aversion on decisions regarding the allocation of wealth between risky and risk-free assets. We use a Value-at-Risk portfolio model with endogenous desired risk levels that are individually determined in an extended prospect theory framework. This framework allows for the distinction between gains and losses with respect to a subjective reference point as in the original prospect theory, but also for the influence of past performance on the current perception of the risky portfolio value. We show how the portfolio evaluation frequency impacts investor decisions and attitudes when facing financial losses and analyze the role of past gains and losses in the current wealth allocation. The perceived portfolio value exhibits distinct evolutions in two frequency segments delimitated by what we consider to be the optimal evaluation horizon of one year. Our empirical results suggest that previous research relying on VaR underestimates the aversion of real individual investors to financial losses.prospect theory, loss aversion, capital allocation, Value-at-Risk, portfolio evaluation

The Option Value of Scientific Uncertainty on Pest - Resistance Development of Transgenic Crops

In this paper the option value of waiting under scientific uncertainty will be derived using the difference between the geometric Brownian motion and the mean reverting process by applying contingent claim analysis. The results will be compared with those generated by either using a geometric Brownian motion or a mean-reverting process only. An example based on the decision problem whether or not to release herbicide tolerant rape seed in the EU will be used to illustrate the differences. The paper contributes to the suggestion made by biologists to further analyze the sensitivity of the results using the real option approach, provides insights about the magnitude of error that can be made by choosing the wrong process, provides a solution to the problem and highlights the implication for the decision of whether or not to release transgenic crops. The results show that scientific uncertainty is less important than one would expect at first hand.biotechnology, cost-benefit analysis, real option, scientific uncertainty

CAPM, rewards, and empirical asset pricing with coherent risk

The paper has 2 main goals: 1. We propose a variant of the CAPM based on coherent risk. 2. In addition to the real-world measure and the risk-neutral measure, we propose the third one: the extreme measure. The introduction of this measure provides a powerful tool for investigating the relation between the first two measures. In particular, this gives us - a new way of measuring reward; - a new approach to the empirical asset pricing