18,667 research outputs found
Modelling tourism demand to Spain with machine learning techniques. The impact of forecast horizon on model selection
This study assesses the influence of the forecast horizon on the forecasting performance of several machine learning techniques. We compare the fo recastaccuracy of Support Vector Regression (SVR) to Neural Network (NN) models, using a linear model as a benchmark. We focus on international tourism demand to all seventeen regions of Spain. The SVR with a Gaussian radial basis function kernel outperforms the rest of the models for the longest forecast
horizons. We also find that machine learning methods improve their
forecasting accuracy with respect to linear models as forecast horizons increase.
This results shows the suitability of SVR for medium and long term
forecasting.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version
Forecasting with time series imaging
Feature-based time series representations have attracted substantial
attention in a wide range of time series analysis methods. Recently, the use of
time series features for forecast model averaging has been an emerging research
focus in the forecasting community. Nonetheless, most of the existing
approaches depend on the manual choice of an appropriate set of features.
Exploiting machine learning methods to extract features from time series
automatically becomes crucial in state-of-the-art time series analysis. In this
paper, we introduce an automated approach to extract time series features based
on time series imaging. We first transform time series into recurrence plots,
from which local features can be extracted using computer vision algorithms.
The extracted features are used for forecast model averaging. Our experiments
show that forecasting based on automatically extracted features, with less
human intervention and a more comprehensive view of the raw time series data,
yields highly comparable performances with the best methods in the largest
forecasting competition dataset (M4) and outperforms the top methods in the
Tourism forecasting competition dataset
Air Quality Prediction in Smart Cities Using Machine Learning Technologies Based on Sensor Data: A Review
The influence of machine learning technologies is rapidly increasing and penetrating almost in every field, and air pollution prediction is not being excluded from those fields. This paper covers the revision of the studies related to air pollution prediction using machine learning algorithms based on sensor data in the context of smart cities. Using the most popular databases and executing the corresponding filtration, the most relevant papers were selected. After thorough reviewing those papers, the main features were extracted, which served as a base to link and compare them to each other. As a result, we can conclude that: (1) instead of using simple machine learning techniques, currently, the authors apply advanced and sophisticated techniques, (2) China was the leading country in terms of a case study, (3) Particulate matter with diameter equal to 2.5 micrometers was the main prediction target, (4) in 41% of the publications the authors carried out the prediction for the next day, (5) 66% of the studies used data had an hourly rate, (6) 49% of the papers used open data and since 2016 it had a tendency to increase, and (7) for efficient air quality prediction it is important to consider the external factors such as weather conditions, spatial characteristics, and temporal features
A Multi Hidden Recurrent Neural Network with a Modified Grey Wolf Optimizer
Identifying university students' weaknesses results in better learning and
can function as an early warning system to enable students to improve. However,
the satisfaction level of existing systems is not promising. New and dynamic
hybrid systems are needed to imitate this mechanism. A hybrid system (a
modified Recurrent Neural Network with an adapted Grey Wolf Optimizer) is used
to forecast students' outcomes. This proposed system would improve instruction
by the faculty and enhance the students' learning experiences. The results show
that a modified recurrent neural network with an adapted Grey Wolf Optimizer
has the best accuracy when compared with other models.Comment: 34 pages, published in PLoS ON
Modeling, forecasting and trading the EUR exchange rates with hybrid rolling genetic algorithms: support vector regression forecast combinations
The motivation of this paper is to introduce a hybrid Rolling Genetic Algorithm-Support Vector Regression (RG-SVR) model for optimal parameter selection and feature subset combination. The algorithm is applied to the task of forecasting and trading the EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY exchange rates. The proposed methodology genetically searches over a feature space (pool of individual forecasts) and then combines the optimal feature subsets (SVR forecast combinations) for each exchange rate. This is achieved by applying a fitness function specialized for financial purposes and adopting a sliding window approach. The individual forecasts are derived from several linear and non-linear models. RG-SVR is benchmarked against genetically and non-genetically optimized SVRs and SVMs models that are dominating the relevant literature, along with the robust ARBF-PSO neural network. The statistical and trading performance of all models is investigated during the period of 1999–2012. As it turns out, RG-SVR presents the best performance in terms of statistical accuracy and trading efficiency for all the exchange rates under study. This superiority confirms the success of the implemented fitness function and training procedure, while it validates the benefits of the proposed algorithm
Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices in Europe: the importance of considering market integration
Motivated by the increasing integration among electricity markets, in this
paper we propose two different methods to incorporate market integration in
electricity price forecasting and to improve the predictive performance. First,
we propose a deep neural network that considers features from connected markets
to improve the predictive accuracy in a local market. To measure the importance
of these features, we propose a novel feature selection algorithm that, by
using Bayesian optimization and functional analysis of variance, evaluates the
effect of the features on the algorithm performance. In addition, using market
integration, we propose a second model that, by simultaneously predicting
prices from two markets, improves the forecasting accuracy even further. As a
case study, we consider the electricity market in Belgium and the improvements
in forecasting accuracy when using various French electricity features. We show
that the two proposed models lead to improvements that are statistically
significant. Particularly, due to market integration, the predictive accuracy
is improved from 15.7% to 12.5% sMAPE (symmetric mean absolute percentage
error). In addition, we show that the proposed feature selection algorithm is
able to perform a correct assessment, i.e. to discard the irrelevant features
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