Predicting the energy output of wind farms based on weather data: important variables and their correlation

Pre-print available at: http://arxiv.org/abs/1109.1922Wind energy plays an increasing role in the supply of energy world wide. The energy output of a wind farm is highly dependent on the weather conditions present at its site. If the output can be predicted more accurately, energy suppliers can coordinate the collaborative production of different energy sources more efficiently to avoid costly overproduction. In this paper, we take a computer science perspective on energy prediction based on weather data and analyze the important parameters as well as their correlation on the energy output. To deal with the interaction of the different parameters, we use symbolic regression based on the genetic programming tool DataModeler. Our studies are carried out on publicly available weather and energy data for a wind farm in Australia. We report on the correlation of the different variables for the energy output. The model obtained for energy prediction gives a very reliable prediction of the energy output for newly supplied weather data. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.Ekaterina Vladislavleva, Tobias Friedrich, Frank Neumann, Markus Wagne

Assessment of the effect of the financial crisis on agents’ expectations through symbolic regression

Agents’ perceptions on the state of the economy can be affected during economic crises. Tendency surveys are the main source of agents’ expectations. The main objective of this study is to assess the impact of the 2008 financial crisis on agents’ expectations. With this aim, we evaluate the capacity of survey-based expectations to anticipate economic growth in the United States, Japan, Germany and the United Kingdom. We propose a symbolic regression (SR) via genetic programming approach to derive mathematical functional forms that link survey-based expectations to GDP growth. By combining the main SR-generated indicators, we generate estimates of the evolution of GDP. Finally, we analyse the effect of the crisis on the formation of expectations, and we find an improvement in the capacity of agents’ expectations to anticipate economic growth after the crisis in all countries except Germany.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Temporal Feature Selection with Symbolic Regression

Building and discovering useful features when constructing machine learning models is the central task for the machine learning practitioner. Good features are useful not only in increasing the predictive power of a model but also in illuminating the underlying drivers of a target variable. In this research we propose a novel feature learning technique in which Symbolic regression is endowed with a ``Range Terminal\u27\u27 that allows it to explore functions of the aggregate of variables over time. We test the Range Terminal on a synthetic data set and a real world data in which we predict seasonal greenness using satellite derived temperature and snow data over a portion of the Arctic. On the synthetic data set we find Symbolic regression with the Range Terminal outperforms standard Symbolic regression and Lasso regression. On the Arctic data set we find it outperforms standard Symbolic regression, fails to beat the Lasso regression, but finds useful features describing the interaction between Land Surface Temperature, Snow, and seasonal vegetative growth in the Arctic

Numerical Study of Quantum Resonances in Chaotic Scattering

This paper presents numerical evidence that for quantum systems with chaotic classical dynamics, the number of scattering resonances near an energy $E$ scales like $\hbar^{-\frac{D(K_E)+1}{2}}$ as $\hbar\to{0}$. Here, $K_E$ denotes the subset of the classical energy surface $\{H=E\}$ which stays bounded for all time under the flow generated by the Hamiltonian $H$ and $D(K_E)$ denotes its fractal dimension. Since the number of bound states in a quantum system with $n$ degrees of freedom scales like $\hbar^{-n}$, this suggests that the quantity $\frac{D(K_E)+1}{2}$ represents the effective number of degrees of freedom in scattering problems.Comment: 24 pages, including 44 figure

Integer Echo State Networks: Hyperdimensional Reservoir Computing

We propose an approximation of Echo State Networks (ESN) that can be efficiently implemented on digital hardware based on the mathematics of hyperdimensional computing. The reservoir of the proposed Integer Echo State Network (intESN) is a vector containing only n-bits integers (where n<8 is normally sufficient for a satisfactory performance). The recurrent matrix multiplication is replaced with an efficient cyclic shift operation. The intESN architecture is verified with typical tasks in reservoir computing: memorizing of a sequence of inputs; classifying time-series; learning dynamic processes. Such an architecture results in dramatic improvements in memory footprint and computational efficiency, with minimal performance loss.Comment: 10 pages, 10 figures, 1 tabl

Constructing a no-reference H.264/AVC bitstream-based video quality metric using genetic programming-based symbolic regression

In order to ensure optimal quality of experience toward end users during video streaming, automatic video quality assessment becomes an important field-of-interest to video service providers. Objective video quality metrics try to estimate perceived quality with high accuracy and in an automated manner. In traditional approaches, these metrics model the complex properties of the human visual system. More recently, however, it has been shown that machine learning approaches can also yield competitive results. In this paper, we present a novel no-reference bitstream-based objective video quality metric that is constructed by genetic programming-based symbolic regression. A key benefit of this approach is that it calculates reliable white-box models that allow us to determine the importance of the parameters. Additionally, these models can provide human insight into the underlying principles of subjective video quality assessment. Numerical results show that perceived quality can be modeled with high accuracy using only parameters extracted from the received video bitstream