Scalable Inference of Customer Similarities from Interactions Data using Dirichlet Processes

Under the sociological theory of homophily, people who are similar to one another are more likely to interact with one another. Marketers often have access to data on interactions among customers from which, with homophily as a guiding principle, inferences could be made about the underlying similarities. However, larger networks face a quadratic explosion in the number of potential interactions that need to be modeled. This scalability problem renders probability models of social interactions computationally infeasible for all but the smallest networks. In this paper we develop a probabilistic framework for modeling customer interactions that is both grounded in the theory of homophily, and is flexible enough to account for random variation in who interacts with whom. In particular, we present a novel Bayesian nonparametric approach, using Dirichlet processes, to moderate the scalability problems that marketing researchers encounter when working with networked data. We find that this framework is a powerful way to draw insights into latent similarities of customers, and we discuss how marketers can apply these insights to segmentation and targeting activities

An Integrated Framework for Competitive Multi-channel Marketing of Multi-featured Products

For any company, multiple channels are available for reaching a population in order to market its products. Some of the most well-known channels are (a) mass media advertisement, (b) recommendations using social advertisement, and (c) viral marketing using social networks. The company would want to maximize its reach while also accounting for simultaneous marketing of competing products, where the product marketings may not be independent. In this direction, we propose and analyze a multi-featured generalization of the classical linear threshold model. We hence develop a framework for integrating the considered marketing channels into the social network, and an approach for allocating budget among these channels

Leadership in Action: How Top Hackers Behave A Big-Data Approach with Text-Mining and Sentiment Analysis

This paper examines hacker behavior in dark forums and identifies its significant predictors in the light of leadership theory for communities of practice. We combine techniques from online forum features as well as text-mining and sentiment-analysis of messages. We create a multinomial logistic regression model to achieve role-based hacker classification and validate our model with actual hacker forum data. We identify total number of messages, number of threads, hacker keyword frequency, and sentiments as the most significant predictors of expert hacker behavior. We also demonstrate that while disseminating technical knowledge, the hacker community follows Pareto principle. As a recommendation for future research, we build a unique keyword lexicon of the most significant terms derived by tf-idf measure. Such investigation of hacker behavior is particularly relevant for organizations in proactive prevention of cyber-attacks. Foresight on online hacker behavior can help businesses save losses from breaches and additional costs of attack-preventive measures

Forgotten Third Parties: Analyzing the Contingent Association Between Unshared Third Parties, Knowledge Overlap, and Knowledge Transfer Relationships with Outsiders

Third parties play a prominent role in network-based explanations for successful knowledge transfer. Third parties can be either shared or unshared. Shared third parties signal insider status and have a predictable positive effect on knowledge transfer. Unshared third parties, however, signal outsider status and are believed to undermine knowledge transfer. Surprisingly, unshared third parties have been ignored in empirical analysis, and so we do not know if or how much unshared third parties contribute to the process. Using knowledge transfer data from an online technical forum, we illustrate how unshared third parties affect the rate at which individuals initiate and sustain knowledge transfer relationships. Empirical results indicate that unshared third parties undermine knowledge sharing, and they also indicate that the magnitude of the negative unshared-third-party effect declines the more unshared third parties overlap in what they know. Our results provide a more complete view of how third parties contribute to knowledge sharing. The results also advance our understanding of network-based dynamics defined more broadly. By documenting how knowledge overlap among unshared third parties moderates their negative influence, our results show when the benefits provided by third parties and by bridges (i.e., relationships with outsiders) will be opposed versus when both can be enjoyed

Competition for attention in online social networks: Implications for seeding strategies

Many firms try to leverage consumers’ interactions on social platforms as part of their communication strategies. However, information on online social networks only propagates if it receives consumers’ attention. This paper proposes a seeding strategy to maximize information propagation while accounting for competition for attention. The theory of exchange networks serves as the framework for identifying the optimal seeding strategy and recommends seeding people that have many friends, who, in turn, have only a few friends. There is little competition for the attention of those seeds’ friends, and these friends are therefore responsive to the messages they receive. Using a game-theoretic model, we show that it is optimal to seed people with the highest Bonacich centrality. Importantly, in contrast to previous seeding literature that assumed a fixed and non-negative connectivity parameter of the Bonacich measure, we demonstrate that this connectivity parameter is negative and needs to be estimated. Two independent empirical validations using a total of 34 social media campaigns on two different large online social networks show that the proposed seeding strategy can substantially increase a campaign’s reach. The second study uses the activity network of messages exchanged to confirm that the effects are driven by competition for attention

CREATING VALUE ON LARGE ONLINE SOCIAL NETWORK SITES (SNS): THE CASE FOR USERS, PROVIDERS AND ADVERTISERS

Ph.DDOCTOR OF PHILOSOPH

Disseny d'un model d'avaluació de resultats de l'activitat de màrqueting per a empreses competint al mercat català i amb relació contractual amb els seus clients

L’objectiu de la tesi doctoral és el de desenvolupar un model que permeti valorar de forma objectiva les actuacions en matèria de màrqueting portades a terme per una organització. Aquest model està constituït per un conjunt de variables descriptives i quantitatives, anomenades variables de control, juntament amb una metodologia de càlcul i un sistema d’indicadors integrat que facilita la traçabilitat de les inversions de màrqueting i explicita la relació causa-efecte entre aquestes i el valor generat per a l’organització. El model s’utilitza per a valorar dades reals d’organitzacions que operin al mercat català i que compleixin la condició de basar la relació amb els seus clients en un model contractual (com veurem més endavant, és inviable aplicar un model comú per a tot tipus d’empresa). L’objectiu, doncs, és la valoració de l’acompliment dels seus objectius en relació als seus actius de mercat (marca i valor de client) i la creació d’un model específic, no generalitzable, per a aquest tipus d’empreses. Un segon objectiu d’aquest treball és l’anàlisi de les principals publicacions especialitzades referents des d’un punt de vista global i local, proposant en primer lloc una terminologia clara en relació a l’activitat de màrqueting, l’acompliment dels seus objectius i la conceptualització d’actius de mercat, i analitzant, en segon, l’impacte d’aquests àmbits i la seva evolució en els últims quinze anys. Alguns estudis previs (Llonch et al., 2002; Ambler i Xiucun, 2003; entre d’altres) es centren a comparar empreses per sectors, funcionalitats i països. És probable, com apunta Llonch et al. (2002) al fer això, que casuístiques atribuïbles a diferències geogràfiques i nacionals es tractin erròniament com a empresarials. A tal efecte, aquest estudi elimina la variabilitat per país i sector (parcialment, aquest darrer), proposant un model acotat, tal com recomanen Ambler et al., (2001), Llonch et al (2002), entre d’altres, que pugui servir de referència en la metodologia i en la validesa conceptual, i no tant en els resultats del model en un context més genèric. Pauwels (2009) demostra la relació entre la creació d’un model predefinit de variables i la millora del càlcul de l’eficiència en la despesa en màrqueting, pel que la creació d’aquest model integrat té l’objectiu d’esdevenir una eina de Gestió del Rendiment Corporatiu (GRC, en endavant1) (Bauer, 2004) aplicada a la gestió de màrqueting i els seus actius. Aquesta particularització del GRC rep el nom de Gestió del Rendiment de Màrqueting (GRM, en endavant2) (Ambler, 2000) i el seu objectiu és el d’augmentar la usabilitat i faciliti la generació d’informació per a la presa de decisions de la línia directiva de les organitzacions. L’abast de la tesi és el de crear el model des d’una perspectiva d’avaluació de l’activitat de màrqueting per part de la línia directiva, i no pas el desenvolupament informàtic d’una eina de suport a la presa de decisions ja que això, com apunten diversos autors (Dover, 2004; Schiff, 2008) i es tractarà amb més profunditat en el capítol 5, implicaria un nivell de personalització per cada empresa que no és objectiu d’aquesta tesi.The thes is aims to develop a practical model to asses m arketing perform ance within an organization. The model is basically structured around control metrics both from a qualitative and quantitatve approach, together with an integrated system of key performance indicators that enables marketing accountability through different organisational divisions, thus stating a solid cause/effect relationship between marketing activities and the value created for the organisation. The aformentioned model is used to assess marketing activites for catalan com panies with a contract-based customer relationship. Final assessment includes also a dynamic valuation of the company's market as sets . A second objective of the thes is is to review the current state of the art of marketing assessment literature from specialized journals both from a global and a local pers pective, defining a comprehensive list of related terms about marketing performance measurement, market-asset description and valuation and an accurate analysis about its evolution throughout the last 15 years.Postprint (published version