Simulation discounted cash flow valuation for internet companies

Discounted cash flow (DCF) is the most accepted approach for company valuation. It is well grounded in theory and practice. However, the DCF approach, which is commonly used for traditional companies valuation, presents a number of serious weaknesses within the Internet companies’ context. One of these weaknesses is tackling the uncertainty that characterize future cash flows of these companies. Specifically DCF assumes that future cash flow streams are highly predictable. The effects of uncertainty are therefore tackled implicitly by discounting the expected value of the cash flows at a risk-adjusted interest rate. However, under uncertainty, future cash flows of these companies can no longer be characterized by a single value but rather by a range of values of its possible consequences. This paper looks at the way in which uncertainty can be incorporated into the traditional DCF approach so that the latter, which is otherwise conceptually sound, becomes relevant. This is done by recognizing that the DCF input variables are uncertain and will have a probability distribution pertaining to each of them. Thus by utilizing a probability-based valuation model (using Monte Carlo Simulation) it is possible to incorporate uncertainty into the analysis and address the shortcomings of the current model. The MC simulation assigns a range of values in order to cope with uncertainty underlies each key cash flow variable. The process leads to a probability distribution of the valuation criterion used, giving investors a quantitative measure of risk involved

Identification of key process areas in the production on an e-capability maturity model for UK construction organisations

Uptake of e-procurement by construction organisations has been slow (Martin, 2008). Positive e-business achievements in other industries, point towards the potential for the construction industry to accomplish similar results. Since the Modernising Government White paper set targets through best value indicator BV157 for implementation in the public sector, Government has supported many initiatives encouraging e-procurement. These are based on documented efficiency and cost savings (Knudsen, 2003; Minahan and Degan, 2001; McIntosh and Sloan, 2001; Martin, 2008). However, Martin (2003, 2008) demonstrates only a modest increase in the uptake of e-procurement in the UK construction industry. Alshawi et al (2004) identified the significance of possessing a model to sustain the embedment of any business process within an organisation. Saleh and Alshawi (2005) describe a number of model types used to gauge maturity in an organisation. One of these models is the capability maturity model. Paulk et al (1993) released the Software Capability Maturity Model (CMM) in 1991. Since then many CMM’s have evolved. This paper reports on how a CMM based on Drivers and Barriers to e-procurement identified in Eadie et al (2009) can be developed to gauge the maturity of an organisation in relation to e-procurement. This paper presents details of a research project which used factor analysis to produce a set of Key Process Areas (KPA) from the drivers and barriers identified in Eadie et al (2009). These KPAs were then subjected to a mapping process linking them to maturity levels to develop a CMM to analyse the e-procurement capability of construction organisations. The mapping will be reported in a later paper. This termed as e-readiness of organisations will indicate the current state of a construction organisation in terms of its readiness to carry out e-procurement. The paper describes in detail the identification of the KPA’s

Improving the Efficiency of Physical Examination Services

The objective of our project was to improve the efficiency of the physical examination screening service of a large hospital system. We began with a detailed simulation model to explore the relationships between four performance measures and three decision factors. We then attempted to identify the optimal physician inquiry starting time by solving a goal-programming problem, where the objective function includes multiple goals. One of our simulation results shows that the proposed optimal physician inquiry starting time decreased patient wait times by 50% without increasing overall physician utilization

Practices and Principles of IT Governance in Australian Legal Aid Organizations

Information Technology (IT) governance has emerged as a fundamental issue for organizations worldwide as organizations depend on IT. IT governance is an integral part of corporate practice; it consists of leadership and organizational structures, processes and communication systems. The underlying goals for implementing an IT governance framework are to maximize operational effectiveness of business processes; align IT strategies with business strategies and objectives; and conform to regulations. This paper presents a comprehensive and pragmatic model of IT Governance through an integrated framework of structures, processes and communications capabilities. This framework integrates the work of Van Grembergen, De Haes & Guldentops’ (2004) IT governance framework with the principles of IT Governance proposed by Weill and Ross (2004). An amended IT Governance represents one of the major contributions of this paper. The case study presented in this paper investigates the IT governance practices and principles adopted in two Australian legal aid organizations

Production Optimization of an Ultrasonic Sensor for Measuring the Oil Level and Temperature

Diplomová práce se zabývá optimalizací výroby ultrazvukového senzoru pro měření hladiny a teploty oleje, přesněji úzkým místem, kterým je linka osazování čepičky a těsnění. V úvodu je probrána základní teorie týkající se štíhlé výroby a optimalizace, pozornost je věnována především metodě Poka-Yoke. V následujícím kroku je představena firma, její základní informace, čím se zabývá a stručný výrobní sortiment firmy. Kapitola pokračuje popsáním výrobku a procesu. V další kapitole se detailně popisují problémy, úzká místa, společně s přínosy pro firmu. Na základě předešlých kapitol se praktická část soustředí nejdříve na navržení řešení a následně se návrhy řešení realizují v praxi. Výsledky testů jsou zhodnoceny a posouzeny. Pro zjištěné nedostatky nebo nezdařené návrhy, jsou doporučená alternativní řešení, která by měla vést k optimalizaci.Master thesis is dealing with the production optimization of an ultrasonic sensor for measuring the oil level and temperature, more precisely with the bottleneck, which is the production line assembly of cap and sealing ring. In the introduction is discussed the basic theory for lean production and optimization. Attention is paid primarily to the method Poka-Yoke. Subsequently is presented the company, its basic information, what it deals with and brief products assortment of the company. In the next chapter are discussed in detail the problems, bottlenecks, together with benefits for the company. Based on the foundations of previous chapters is the practice chapter focusing firstly on suggesting the solutions and subsequently are the solutions tried in practice. The results of experiments are evaluated and assessed in the conclusion. For the identified deficiencies or failed solutions are recommended alternative solutions, that should lead to optimization.345 - Katedra mechanické technologievýborn

A multi-factor model for evaluating manufacturing defect opportunities in six sigma analysis

Six Sigma Quality Analysis provides a structured method for manufacturing quality problems and defect opportunities to be defined, measured, analyzed, improved, and controlled. The technique is now being widely used in both the manufacturing and service industries to evaluate the classical defects per million metric. An underlying assumption of classical Six Sigma Analysis is that all defects contribute equally to the derivation of the defect rate. In the thesis, it is proposed that this assumption skews and often distorts the derived defect rate. Using classical Six Sigma the user is able to list a large number of often border-line defect opportunities and hence inflate their six sigma capability. Here, a new multi-factor model is developed for calculating the Defect Per Million Opportunities (DPMO). The proposed DPMO equation undergoes a rationalized transition from the normal formulation based on the following factors: (i) defect severity, (ii) occurrence frequency, (iii) detection ease, (iv) correction time, and (v) cost impact. This new equation accounts for all possible differentiating characterizations between possible defects. In effect we get a scaled down number of defect opportunities which eliminates the six sigma inflation problem. For each factor, a Six Sigma Opportunity rating scale is presented in the 0-1 range. An MS-Excel implementation of the proposed multi-factor scheme is presented along with a case-study example

Integrating Multiobjective Optimization With The Six Sigma Methodology For Online Process Control

Over the past two decades, the Define-Measure-Analyze-Improve-Control (DMAIC) framework of the Six Sigma methodology and a host of statistical tools have been brought to bear on process improvement efforts in today’s businesses. However, a major challenge of implementing the Six Sigma methodology is maintaining the process improvements and providing real-time performance feedback and control after solutions are implemented, especially in the presence of multiple process performance objectives. The consideration of a multiplicity of objectives in business and process improvement is commonplace and, quite frankly, necessary. However, balancing the collection of objectives is challenging as the objectives are inextricably linked, and, oftentimes, in conflict. Previous studies have reported varied success in enhancing the Six Sigma methodology by integrating optimization methods in order to reduce variability. These studies focus these enhancements primarily within the Improve phase of the Six Sigma methodology, optimizing a single objective. The current research and practice of using the Six Sigma methodology and optimization methods do little to address the real-time feedback and control for online process control in the case of multiple objectives. This research proposes an innovative integrated Six Sigma multiobjective optimization (SSMO) approach for online process control. It integrates the Six Sigma DMAIC framework with a nature-inspired optimization procedure that iteratively perturbs a set of decision variables providing feedback to the online process, eventually converging to a set of tradeoff process configurations that improves and maintains process stability. For proof of concept, the approach is applied to a general business process model – a well-known inventory management model – that is formally defined and specifies various process costs as objective functions. The proposed iv SSMO approach and the business process model are programmed and incorporated into a software platform. Computational experiments are performed using both three sigma (3σ)-based and six sigma (6σ)-based process control, and the results reveal that the proposed SSMO approach performs far better than the traditional approaches in improving the stability of the process. This research investigation shows that the benefits of enhancing the Six Sigma method for multiobjective optimization and for online process control are immense

Reorganizing Business Analysis in an Information Technology Environment

Presented to the Faculty of the University of Alaska Anchorage in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of MASTER OF SCIENCEThis project was initiated to identify changes needed for the existing structure of the business analysis process and the organization of Business Analysts within the Information Technology (IT) department of a major financial institution. The organization currently experiences a large number of quality issues that are found after the products are implemented rather than during project Initiation, Planning or Execution phases. This results in re-work costs, shortage of resources for strategic initiatives and issues with both employee morale and customer satisfaction. Management has identified weak business analysis processes as a key driver in the high number of resource hours spent on day-to-day unplanned issues. Analysis of data collected from interviews conducted with a cross-section of the IT staff were used to identify areas to be considered for process improvement. The current state was researched using data obtained from the interview process and data analyzed and prioritized using Cause and Effect Analysis. Pareto and Tornado analysis provided further insights into the data. Using the results of the data analysis, some potential short-term and long-term solutions were selected to address identified weaknesses, and potentially reduce time spent on unanticipated non-discretionary tasks, thereby increasing the availability of resources to address the organization’s key initiatives.Final Project Report / Final Project Report with research details / Interview Questions / Data with Cause and Effect and Pareto Analysis / SWOT and Matrix Analysis Graphics / Tornado Risk Analysis and Graphic / POPIT Impact Analysis and Graphic / Final PowerPoint Presentation / Project Lessons Learned / Narrative on Knowledge Areas / Project Management Plan / Risk Register /; Project Schedule and WBS / Requirements Traceability Matrix / Change Management Log / Stakeholder Management Plan / Project Charter / Sponsor Letter of Support / Digital Media Files of Projec

Identifying departmental team dynamics in a regulated casino environment

Literature has been reviewed on the formation and structure of groups and teams in order to establish what differences there are in the types of teams that exist in the modern workplace, and what it is that facilitates effective and high performance of such teams. From the results of the qualitative research conducted, the author is of the opinion that the notion of teams operating in the regulated casino environment is somewhat exaggerated. At year end functions and award ceremonies, mention is made of the teams that successfully contributed to the various achievements but, upon closer inspection, no teams are evident at the “coal face”. Some of the reasons for this may be that there appears to be a lack of those skills necessary to harness people into successful teams especially during the early stages of the business lifecycle. Too few people at grass root level have the required knowledge, skills and attitude to take the lead and form a team especially in an unfamiliar environment. It may also be as a result of the different management styles imposed on the labour force over a long period of time. As organisations are forced to become more competitive, especially on the global market, it is the author’s opinion that the management style in progressive organisations will probably have shifted from autocratic to paternalistic to democratic; yet very few businesses are practicing participative management, although buzzwords relating to participative management are used freely. Ultimately, accountability rests with top management and results are measured by bottom line figures. Since accountability is centralised, the intrinsic and extrinsic rewards for success are also confined to management who is likely to be criticised, attacked, or got rid of, and these recipients are often not volunteering to share the benefits reaped – even though the recipients would mutter words such as “if it were not for my team” or “ thanks to my team”. With this viewpoint in mind the treatise aims to address specific and practical interventions that could be implemented without much organisational change and yet developing a culture of team development and team building within an organisation. The author is of the opinion that the responses imparted from the different respondents in the research results could benefit Sun International within its training methodology policy framework. Although, each casino unit is managed autonomously, Sun International, via its centralised training facility, could apply successful specific and practical training interventions in respect of team dynamics. Results extracted from unit staff climate surveys and staff feedback sessions could be collated from the different training departments within the group and presented in workshops at quarterly conferences and feedback seminars. The effectiveness of these interventions, once implemented, could be assessed in a performance measurement framework. Eales-White (1996: 34) quotes Peters as saying, “I observe the power of the team is so great that it is often wise to violate common sense and force a team structure on almost anything … companies that do, will achieve greater focus, stronger task orientation and enhanced individual commitment

Assessing the impact of the Academic Quality Improvement Project on the organizational climate of a comprehensive community college: a case study approach

2012 Fall.Includes bibliographical references.This phenomenological case study assesses the Riverland Community College faculty and staff current perceptions of organizational climate. It also examines the impact of the Academic Quality Improvement Program (AQIP) effort from 2002-2012. Employee perceptions were studied in two ways: (a) a longitudinal analysis (2002-2012) of an Institutional Climate Survey that was offered to all employees, and (b) personal interviews with seventeen of the employees: ten faculty and seven staff. Consistent interview questions were related to perceptions of current climate, discussions of related survey items from previous climate surveys (2002-2012), and perceptions of AQIP during the same ten-year period. Results from the qualitative and quantitative data analysis indicated radically different staff and faculty subclimates, as well as concerns related to organizational structure, administration, decision-making, communication, planning, and budget. Internal restructuring and reorganizations were problematic. AQIP efforts were not as relevant as concerns about climate and organizational structure, as AQIP does not seem have been influential in altering climate. The essence of the phenomenon for this case study was the bifurcated sense of climate at Riverland Community College. Two distinct subclimates were defined in this study: a toxic, fearful, and demoralizing environment experienced by some staff, including workplace bullying, and a non-threatening, supportive, and positive environment experienced by most faculty. There were many distinctive differences noted between the staff and faculty subclimates regarding climate perceptions, perspectives on organizational structure and its players, and AQIP