Premise Parameter Optimization on Adaptive Network Based Fuzzy Inference System Using Modification Hybrid Particle Swarm Optimization and Genetic Algorithm

ANFIS is a combination of the Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) and Neural Network (NN), which has two training parameters, premise and consequent. In the traditional ANFIS, Least Square Estimator (LSE) and Gradient Descent (GD) are commonly used learning algorithms to train the two parameters. The combination of those two learning algorithms tends to produce the local optimal solution. Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) can converge quickly but still allow for getting the local optimal solution because PSO is unable to find a new solution space. Meanwhile, Genetic Algorithm (GA) has been reported to be able to find a wider solution space. Hybrid PSOGA is expected to give a better solution. In this study, modification of hybrid PSOGA is used to train the premise parameter of ANFIS. In experiments, the accuracy of the proposed classification method, which is called ANFIS-PSOGA, is compared to ANFIS-GA and ANFIS-PSO on Iris flowers, Haberman, and Vertebral datasets. The experiment shows that ANFIS-PSOGA achieves the best result compared to the other methods, with an average of accuracy 99.85% on Iris flowers, 84.52% on Haberman, and 91.83% on Vertebral

A Mixed Binary-Real NSGA II Algorithm Ensuring Both Accuracy and Interpretability of a Neuro-Fuzzy Controller

In this work, a Neuro-Fuzzy Controller network, called NFC that implements a Mamdani fuzzy inference system is proposed. This network includes neurons able to perform fundamental fuzzy operations. Connections between neurons are weighted through binary and real weights. Then a mixed binary-real Non dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA II) is used to perform both accuracy and interpretability of the NFC by minimizing two objective functions; one objective relates to the number of rules, for compactness, while the second is the mean square error, for accuracy. In order to preserve interpretability of fuzzy rules during the optimization process, some constraints are imposed. The  approach  is  tested  on  two  control examples:  a single  input  single  output (SISO) system  and  a  multivariable (MIMO) system

An Integrated Human Reliability Based Decision Pool Generating and Decision Making Method for Power Supply System in LNG Terminal

Acknowledgement We would like to give sincerely thank to Zhonghe Zhang, the principle expert in Sinopec and other relevant staff in Beihai LNG terminal for their valuable and constructive support during the development of this work. We would also like to express our very great appreciation to the respected reviewers. Their valuable suggestions and comments have enhanced the strength of this paper.Peer reviewedPostprin

Estimation of Turkey's Transportation Energy Demand by Hybrid ANFISPSO

In addition to the country's economy and wealth, defense planning and strategic planning have great prospects for energy planning. For this reason, the most accurate estimation of energy demand is a critical issue in terms of country politics. In recent years, various techniques have been used to predict future energy demand levels in the most accurate way. However, it is necessary to choose the best appropriate among the different estimation techniques. In this study, a hybrid method called Adaptive Network Based Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm are used together to model and estimate the annual road transport-based energy demand in Turkey. In the development of the models, gross domestic product (GDP), population, annual total vehicle-km parameters and the annual number of vehicles registered to traffic were taken as model inputs. The data from 1970 to 2016 were used for the training and testing phases of the models. The ANFIS-PSO model, which has been identified as the best approach, has been used for estimating the transportation energy from 2017 to 2023 of Turkey. The results show that Turkey's transportation-related energy demand will rise to 1,2 times the value of 2016 in a 7-year period. ©Ülke ekonomisi ve refah seviyesinin yanısıra savunma güvenliği ve stratejik hedefler yönünden enerji planlaması büyük öneme sahiptir. Bu nedenle, enerji talebinin en doğru şekilde tahmini, ülke politikaları açısından kritik bir konudur. Son yıllarda, gelecekteki enerji talep seviyelerini en doğru şekilde tahmin edebilmek için çeşitli yöntemler kullanılmaktadır. Bununla birlikte, farklı tahmin yöntemleri arasından en uygun olanın seçilmesi gerekmektedir. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye'de yıllık ulaşım kaynaklı enerji talebinin (UKET) modellenmesi ve tahmin edilmesi için hibrit bir yöntem olan Uyarlamalı Ağ Tabanlı Bulanık Çıkarım Sistemleri (Adaptive-Network Based Fuzzy Inference Systems, ANFIS) ile Parçacık Sürü Optimizasyon (PSO) algoritması birlikte kullanılmıştır. Modellerin geliştirilmesinde gayri safi yurtiçi hâsıla (GSYİH), nüfus, yıllık toplam taşıt-km parametreleri ve yıllık trafiğe çıkan taşıt sayısı model girdileri olarak alınmıştır. Modellerin eğitim ve test aşamaları için 1970 ile 2016 yılları arasındaki veriler kullanılmıştır. En iyi yaklaşım olarak belirlenen ANFIS-PSO modeli Türkiye’nin 2017’den 2023’e kadar UKET tahmini için kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlar, Türkiye'nin ulaşım kaynaklı enerji talebinin 7 yıllık bir sürede 2016 yılındaki değerinin yaklaşık 1,2 katına çıkacağını göstermiştir

Hybrid ANFIS-Taguchi Method Based on PCA for Blood Bank Demand Forecasting

Kan; hastalıklar, ameliyatlar veya yaralanmalar nedeniyle her gün binlerce insan tarafından ihtiyaç duyulan hayati bir üründür. Bu nedenle hastanelerin kan ihtiyacını karşılayan kan bankalarının stoklarında yeterli miktarda kan bulundurması gereklidir. Gereğinden az miktarda kan elde bulundurulması ihtiyacın karşılanamaması ve can kaybı gibi önemli sorunlar oluştururken, fazla miktarda kanın stoklanması ise kanın bozulmasına ve kan ihtiyacı olan farklı hastanelerin stoksuz kalmasına neden olmaktadır. Bu çalışmada öncelikle kan bileşenlerinden biri olan eritrosit süspansiyonu talebine etki eden kriterler belirlenerek; bu kriterlere göre makine öğrenme algoritmalarından uyarlamalı ağ tabanlı bulanık çıkarım sistemi (ANFIS) yöntemi ile talebin tahmin edilmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Ancak talebe etki eden çok sayıda kriter olduğu için gruplandırarak azaltmak ve kriterler arasındaki bağımlılıkları ortadan kaldırmak amacıyla temel bileşen analizi (PCA) yönteminden yararlanılmıştır. Ayrıca ANFIS’in performansı; modelin yapısı ve öğrenmesini etkileyen parametre değerlerinin doğru belirlenmesi ile ilişkili olduğundan en yüksek doğrulukla tahmini sağlayacak değerler Taguchi deney tasarımı yöntemiyle belirlenmiştir. Geliştirilen PCA esaslı hibrit ANFIS-Taguchi yöntemi bir bölge kan merkezinde uygulanmıştır. Korelasyon katsayısı (??) performans ölçütü ile yöntemin tahmin yeteneği değerlendirilmiştir. Uygulama sonunda tahmin edilen eritrosit süspansiyon talep miktarının %88.1 oranla gerçekleşen talep miktarı ile benzer sonuç verdiği görülmüştür.Blood is a vital product that is needed by thousands of people every day due to diseases, surgeries or injuries. For this reason, it is necessary that the blood banks have enough blood quantity to meet the blood needs of hospitals . The provision of small amounts of blood in hospitals creates significant problems such as loss of life and can’t meet the demand. On the other hand, the stocking of large amounts of blood leads to the wastage of blood and the stockless of blood different hospitals. The aim of this study is to determine the criteria affecting blood demand and to forecast the blood demand by the machine learning algorithm Adaptive Network Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) method. However, since the number of impact criteria is high, principal component analysis (PCA) method has been used in order to decrease criteria and eliminate the dependencies between the criteria. In addition, the performance of ANFIS depend on determining ANFIS parameters that affect its structure and learning. So to provide the highest learning ANFIS parameters were determined by the Taguchi experimental design method. The developed hybrid method was applied in a regional blood center and evaluated with correlation coefficient (??). At the end of the application, it is seen that the estimated red blood cells demand is similar to the demand amount realized at the rate of 88.1%

Technical and Fundamental Features Analysis for Stock Market Prediction with Data Mining Methods

Predicting stock prices is an essential objective in the financial world. Forecasting stock returns and their risk represents one of the most critical concerns of market decision makers. This thesis investigates the stock price forecasting with three approaches from the data mining concept and shows how different elements in the stock price can help to enhance the accuracy of our prediction. For this reason, the first and second approaches capture many fundamental indicators from the stocks and implement them as explanatory variables to do stock price classification and forecasting. In the third approach, technical features from the candlestick representation of the share prices are extracted and used to enhance the accuracy of the forecasting. In each approach, different tools and techniques from data mining and machine learning are employed to justify why the forecasting is working. Furthermore, since the idea is to evaluate the potential of features in the stock trend forecasting, therefore we diversify our experiments using both technical and fundamental features. Therefore, in the first approach, a three-stage methodology is developed while in the first step, a comprehensive investigation of all possible features which can be effective on stocks risk and return are identified. Then, in the next stage, risk and return are predicted by applying data mining techniques for the given features. Finally, we develop a hybrid algorithm, based on some filters and function-based clustering; and re-predicted the risk and return of stocks. In the second approach, instead of using single classifiers, a fusion model is proposed based on the use of multiple diverse base classifiers that operate on a common input and a meta-classifier that learns from base classifiers’ outputs to obtain a more precise stock return and risk predictions. A set of diversity methods, including Bagging, Boosting, and AdaBoost, is applied to create diversity in classifier combinations. Moreover, the number and procedure for selecting base classifiers for fusion schemes are determined using a methodology based on dataset clustering and candidate classifiers’ accuracy. Finally, in the third approach, a novel forecasting model for stock markets based on the wrapper ANFIS (Adaptive Neural Fuzzy Inference System) – ICA (Imperialist Competitive Algorithm) and technical analysis of Japanese Candlestick is presented. Two approaches of Raw-based and Signal-based are devised to extract the model’s input variables and buy and sell signals are considered as output variables. To illustrate the methodologies, for the first and second approaches, Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) data for the period from 2002 to 2012 are applied, while for the third approach, we used General Motors and Dow Jones indexes.Predicting stock prices is an essential objective in the financial world. Forecasting stock returns and their risk represents one of the most critical concerns of market decision makers. This thesis investigates the stock price forecasting with three approaches from the data mining concept and shows how different elements in the stock price can help to enhance the accuracy of our prediction. For this reason, the first and second approaches capture many fundamental indicators from the stocks and implement them as explanatory variables to do stock price classification and forecasting. In the third approach, technical features from the candlestick representation of the share prices are extracted and used to enhance the accuracy of the forecasting. In each approach, different tools and techniques from data mining and machine learning are employed to justify why the forecasting is working. Furthermore, since the idea is to evaluate the potential of features in the stock trend forecasting, therefore we diversify our experiments using both technical and fundamental features. Therefore, in the first approach, a three-stage methodology is developed while in the first step, a comprehensive investigation of all possible features which can be effective on stocks risk and return are identified. Then, in the next stage, risk and return are predicted by applying data mining techniques for the given features. Finally, we develop a hybrid algorithm, based on some filters and function-based clustering; and re-predicted the risk and return of stocks. In the second approach, instead of using single classifiers, a fusion model is proposed based on the use of multiple diverse base classifiers that operate on a common input and a meta-classifier that learns from base classifiers’ outputs to obtain a more precise stock return and risk predictions. A set of diversity methods, including Bagging, Boosting, and AdaBoost, is applied to create diversity in classifier combinations. Moreover, the number and procedure for selecting base classifiers for fusion schemes are determined using a methodology based on dataset clustering and candidate classifiers’ accuracy. Finally, in the third approach, a novel forecasting model for stock markets based on the wrapper ANFIS (Adaptive Neural Fuzzy Inference System) – ICA (Imperialist Competitive Algorithm) and technical analysis of Japanese Candlestick is presented. Two approaches of Raw-based and Signal-based are devised to extract the model’s input variables and buy and sell signals are considered as output variables. To illustrate the methodologies, for the first and second approaches, Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) data for the period from 2002 to 2012 are applied, while for the third approach, we used General Motors and Dow Jones indexes.154 - Katedra financívyhově

Hibrit algoritma kullanarak elektrik enerji tüketim modelinin oluşturulması ve kestirimi : Uganda örneği

06.03.2018 tarihli ve 30352 sayılı Resmi Gazetede yayımlanan “Yükseköğretim Kanunu İle Bazı Kanun Ve Kanun Hükmünde Kararnamelerde Değişiklik Yapılması Hakkında Kanun” ile 18.06.2018 tarihli “Lisansüstü Tezlerin Elektronik Ortamda Toplanması, Düzenlenmesi ve Erişime Açılmasına İlişkin Yönerge” gereğince tam metin erişime açılmıştır.Uzun vadeli elektrik tüketimi tahmini karar vericiler tarafından sistem genişletme planlaması konusunda karar vermek için kullanılır. Geçtiğimiz on yıl boyunca, elektrik tüketim tahminleri üzerine yapılan araştırmaların nokta tahminleri olarak sonuçları rapor edilmiştir. Özellikle uzun vadeli tahminler için nokta tahminleri çok fazla ilgi çekici değildir. Çünkü bunun sistem genişletme ile ilgili finansal riskinin, talep değişkenliğinin ve tahmin belirsizliğinin tahmin edilmesi için kullanılması güçtür. Bu çalışmada ilk olarak, Uganda'nın net elektrik tüketimini modellemek için, tahmin modellerinde nüfusu, gayri safi yurtiçi hasılayı, abone sayısını ve ortalama elektrik fiyatını değişken olarak gözönüne almak suretiyle üstel, karesel ve Adaptif sinirsel bulanık çıkarım sistemi (ANFIS) formları kullanılmıştır. Parçacık Sürüsü Optimizasyonu (PSO) ve Yapay Arı Kolonosi (YAK) algoritmalarına dayalı bir hibrit algoritma kullanılarak üstel ve karesel tahmin modellerinin parametreleri optimize edilmiştir. ANFIS modelinin parametreleri ise, PSO ve Genetik Algoritma (GA) kullanılarak optimize edilmiştir. İkinci olarak, %90 anlamlılık düzeyli alt ve üst hata sınırlarını elde etmek için basit doğrusal regresyonu kullanarak tahmin kalıntıları modellenmiştir. Uganda'nın 2040 yılına kadarki net elektrik tüketimine ilişkin tahmin aralıklarını oluşturmak için alt ve üst hata sınırları kullanılmıştır. Son olarak, birleştirilmiş öngörme modeli elde etmek için bu dört yönteme ilişkin dört model de birleştirilmiştir. Birleştirilmiş tahminlere göre, 2040 yılında Uganda'nın elektrik tüketim tahmininin, yıllık ortalama %11,75 - %10,64'lük bir artışa işaretle [41,296 42,133] GWh arasında olacağı tahmin edilmiştirLong term electricity consumption forecasting is used by decision makers to make decisions regarding system expansion planning. Over the past decade, research on electricity consumption forecasting has reported results as point forecasts. Specifically for long-term forecasting, point forecasts are of little interest because it is hard to use them to assess the financial risk associated with system expansion versus demand variability and forecasting uncertainty. In this study, firstly we use power, quadratic and Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) forms to model Uganda's net electricity consumption using population, gross domestic product, number of subscribers and average electricity price as variables in the forecasting models. We optimize the parameters of power and quadrtaic forecasting models using a hybrid algorithm based on particle swarm optimization (PSO) and artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithms. The parameters of ANFIS model are optmized using particle swarm optimization and genetic algorithm. Secondly we model the forecast residuals using simple linear regression to obtain 90% significance level lower and upper error bounds. The lower and upper error bounds were used to construct predication intervals for Uganda's net electricity consumption up to year 2040. Finally we combine all the four models from the two methods to get a combined forecasting model. According to the combined forecast, in year 2040 Uganda's electricity consumption will be between [41,296 42,133] GWh indicating an annual average increase of 11.75%-10.64

Experimental investigation and modelling of the heating value and elemental composition of biomass through artificial intelligence

Abstract: Knowledge advancement in artificial intelligence and blockchain technologies provides new potential predictive reliability for biomass energy value chain. However, for the prediction approach against experimental methodology, the prediction accuracy is expected to be high in order to develop a high fidelity and robust software which can serve as a tool in the decision making process. The global standards related to classification methods and energetic properties of biomass are still evolving given different observation and results which have been reported in the literature. Apart from these, there is a need for a holistic understanding of the effect of particle sizes and geospatial factors on the physicochemical properties of biomass to increase the uptake of bioenergy. Therefore, this research carried out an experimental investigation of some selected bioresources and also develops high-fidelity models built on artificial intelligence capability to accurately classify the biomass feedstocks, predict the main elemental composition (Carbon, Hydrogen, and Oxygen) on dry basis and the Heating value in (MJ/kg) of biomass...Ph.D. (Mechanical Engineering Science

Robust optimization of ANFIS based on a new modified GA

Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS) is one of the most well-known predictions modeling technique utilized to find the superlative relationship between input and output parameters in different processes. Training the adaptive modeling parameters in ANFIS is still a challengeable problem which has been recently considered by researchers. Hybridizing of a robust optimization algorithm with ANFIS as its training algorithm provides a scope to improve the effectiveness of membership functions and fuzzy rules in the model. In this paper, a new Modified Genetic Algorithm (MGA) by using a new type of population is proposed to optimize the modeling parameters for membership functions and fuzzy rules in ANFIS. As well, a case study on a machining process is considered to illustrate the robustness of the proposed training technique in prediction of machining performances. The prediction results have demonstrated the superiority of the presented hybrid ANFIS-MGA in term of prediction accuracy (with 97.74%) over the other techniques such as hybridization of ANFIS with Genetic Algorithm (GA), Taguchi-GA, Hybrid Learning algorithm (HL), Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation (LOO-CV), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Grid Partition method (GP), as well as RBFN and basic Grid Partition Method (GPM). In addition, an attempt is done to specify the effectiveness of different improvement rates on the prediction result and measuring the number of function evaluations required. The comparison result reveals that MGA with improvement rate 0.8 raises the convergence speed and accuracy of the prediction results compared to GA