Genetic risk prediction of atrial fibrillation

Background—Atrial fibrillation (AF) has a substantial genetic basis. Identification of individuals at greatest AF risk could minimize the incidence of cardioembolic stroke. Methods—To determine whether genetic data can stratify risk for development of AF, we examined associations between AF genetic risk scores and incident AF in five prospective studies comprising 18,919 individuals of European ancestry. We examined associations between AF genetic risk scores and ischemic stroke in a separate study of 509 ischemic stroke cases (202 cardioembolic [40%]) and 3,028 referents. Scores were based on 11 to 719 common variants (≥5%) associated with AF at P-values ranging from <1x10-3 to <1x10-8 in a prior independent genetic association study. Results—Incident AF occurred in 1,032 (5.5%) individuals. AF genetic risk scores were associated with new-onset AF after adjusting for clinical risk factors. The pooled hazard ratio for incident AF for the highest versus lowest quartile of genetic risk scores ranged from 1.28 (719 variants; 95%CI, 1.13-1.46; P=1.5x10-4) to 1.67 (25 variants; 95%CI, 1.47-1.90; P=9.3x10-15). Discrimination of combined clinical and genetic risk scores varied across studies and scores (maximum C statistic, 0.629-0.811; maximum ΔC statistic from clinical score alone, 0.009-0.017). AF genetic risk was associated with stroke in age- and sex-adjusted models. For example, individuals in the highest versus lowest quartile of a 127-variant score had a 2.49-fold increased odds of cardioembolic stroke (95%CI, 1.39-4.58; P=2.7x10-3). The effect persisted after excluding individuals (n=70) with known AF (odds ratio, 2.25; 95%CI, 1.20-4.40; P=0.01). Conclusions—Comprehensive AF genetic risk scores were associated with incident AF beyond associations for clinical AF risk factors, though offered small improvements in discrimination. AF genetic risk was also associated with cardioembolic stroke in age- and sex-adjusted analyses. Efforts are warranted to determine whether AF genetic risk may improve identification of subclinical AF or help distinguish between stroke mechanisms

A Comparison of Patient History- and EKG-based Cardiac Risk Scores.

Patient-specific risk scores are used to identify individuals at elevated risk for cardiovascular disease. Typically, risk scores are based on patient habits and medical history - age, sex, race, smoking behavior, and prior vital signs and diagnoses. We explore an alternative source of information, a patient's raw electrocardiogram recording, and develop a score of patient risk for various outcomes. We compare models that predict adverse cardiac outcomes following an emergency department visit, and show that a learned representation (e.g. deep neural network) of raw EKG waveforms can improve prediction over traditional risk factors. Further, we show that a simple model based on segmented heart beats performs as well or better than a complex convolutional network recently shown to reliably automate arrhythmia detection in EKGs. We analyze a large cohort of emergency department patients and show evidence that EKG-derived scores can be more robust to patient heterogeneity

The association of genetic predisposition to depressive symptoms with non-suicidal and suicidal self-Injuries

Non-suicidal and suicidal self-injury are very destructive, yet surprisingly common behaviours. Depressed mood is a major risk factor for non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI), suicidal ideation and suicide attempts. We conducted a genetic risk prediction study to examine the polygenic overlap of depressive symptoms with lifetime NSSI, suicidal ideation, and suicide attempts in a sample of 6237 Australian adult twins and their family members (3740 females, mean age\ua0=\ua042.4\ua0years). Polygenic risk scores for depressive symptoms significantly predicted suicidal ideation, and some predictive ability was found for suicide attempts; the polygenic risk scores explained a significant amount of variance in suicidal ideation (lowest p\ua0=\ua00.008, explained variance ranging from 0.10 to 0.16\ua0%) and, less consistently, in suicide attempts (lowest p\ua0=\ua00.04, explained variance ranging from 0.12 to 0.23\ua0%). Polygenic risk scores did not significantly predict NSSI. Results highlight that individuals genetically predisposed to depression are also more likely to experience suicidal ideation/behaviour, whereas we found no evidence that this is also the case for NSSI

Polygenic risk scores in epilepsy

An epilepsy diagnosis has large consequences for an individual but is often difficult to make in clinical practice. Novel biomarkers are thus greatly needed. Here, we give an overview of how thousands of common genetic factors that increase the risk for epilepsy can be summarized as epilepsy polygenic risk scores (PRS). We discuss the current state of research on how epilepsy PRS can serve as a biomarker for the risk for epilepsy. The high heritability of common forms of epilepsy, particularly genetic generalized epilepsy, indicates a promising potential for epilepsy PRS in diagnosis and risk prediction. Small sample sizes and low ancestral diversity of current epilepsy genome-wide association studies show, however, a need for larger and more diverse studies before epilepsy PRS could be properly implemented in the clinic.Peer reviewe

Polygenic transcriptome risk scores (PTRS) can improve portability of polygenic risk scores across ancestries

Background: Polygenic risk scores (PRS) are valuable to translate the results of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) into clinical practice. To date, most GWAS have been based on individuals of European-ancestry leading to poor performance in populations of non-European ancestry. Results: We introduce the polygenic transcriptome risk score (PTRS), which is based on predicted transcript levels (rather than SNPs), and explore the portability of PTRS across populations using UK Biobank data. Conclusions: We show that PTRS has a significantly higher portability (Wilcoxon p=0.013) in the African-descent samples where the loss of performance is most acute with better performance than PRS when used in combination