A Risky Climate for Southern African Hydro

This in-depth study of the hydrological risks to hydropower dams on the Zambezi River gives an early warning about what Southern Africa could be facing as it contemplates plans for more large hydropower dams in a time of climate change.Currently, 13,000 megawatts of new large-dam hydro is proposed for the Zambezi and its tributaries. The report finds that existing and proposed hydropower dams are not being properly evaluated for the risks from natural hydrological variability (which is extremely high in the Zambezi), much less the risks posed by climate change.Overall, Africa's fourth-largest river will experience worse droughts and more extreme floods. Dams being proposed and built now will be negatively affected, yet energy planning in the basin is not taking serious steps to address these huge hydrological uncertainties. The result could be dams that are uneconomic, disruptive to the energy sector, and possibly even dangerous.The report recommends a series of steps to address the coming storm of hydrological changes, including changes to how dams are planned and operated

The Human Capital-Intensive Firm and Coordination: Redefined Integration and Disintegration

The aim of this paper is to reconsider the link between integration and disintegration. We argue that the conception of this link depends on the way one defines the firm and its coordinating role. We focus on studying the human capital-intensive firm. We explain that coordination by this kind of firms consists in coordinating productive tasks. The role of the firm is to coordinate the specialization of complementary resources and the division of labour. We show that integration and disintegration must be differentiated by the tools they give to the firm to effectively govern productive assets.Specific human capital; coordination; disintegration; integration; boudaries of the firm

Climate change and the economics of targeted mitigation in sectors with long-lived capital stock

Mitigation investments in long-lived capital stock (LLKS) differ from other types of mitigation investments in that, once established, LLKS can lock-in a stream of emissions for extended periods of time. Moreover, historical examples from industrial countries suggest that investments in LLKS projects or networks tend to be lumpy, and tend to generate significant indirect and induced emissions besides direct emissions. Looking forward, urbanization and rapid economic growth suggest that similar decisions about LLKS are being or will soon be made in many developing countries. In their current form, carbon markets do not provide correct incentives for mitigation investments in LLKS because the constraint on carbon extends only to 2012, and does not extend to many developing countries. Targeted mitigation programs in regions and sectors in which LLKS is being built at rapid rate are thus necessary to avoid getting locked into highly carbon-intensive LLKS. Even if the carbon markets were extended (geographically, sectorally, and over time), public intervention would still be required, for three main reasons. First, to ensure that indirect and induced emissions associated with LLKS are taken into account in investor’s financial cost-benefit analysis. Second, to facilitate project or network financing to bridge the gap between carbon revenues that accrue over time as the project/network unfolds and the capital needed upfront to finance lumpy investments. Third, to internalize other non-carbon externalities (e.g., local pollution) and/or to lift barriers (e.g., lack of capacity to handle new technologies) that penalize the low-carbon alternatives relative to the high-carbon ones.Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases,Climate Change Economics,Energy Production and Transportation,Energy and Environment

Value-at-risk of carbon constraints : an input oriented approach of resource scarcity

The purpose of this study is to broaden the discussion on corporate enviromental risk exposure by integrating an oil scarcity factor. This broader approach can be utilized as a means of instigating a discussion on carbon risks beyond output oriented adaption and mitigation strategies. Even though the outcomes might not seem to be relevant for current economic activities, the recent discussion about oil prices affecting the global economy illustrates the future relevance of this topic; it is just a matter of time before risks related to future oil supply and endowment will emerge. --

The Global Risks Report 2016, 11th Edition

Now in its 11th edition, The Global Risks Report 2016 draws attention to ways that global risks could evolve and interact in the next decade. The year 2016 marks a forceful departure from past findings, as the risks about which the Report has been warning over the past decade are starting to manifest themselves in new, sometimes unexpected ways and harm people, institutions and economies. Warming climate is likely to raise this year's temperature to 1° Celsius above the pre-industrial era, 60 million people, equivalent to the world's 24th largest country and largest number in recent history, are forcibly displaced, and crimes in cyberspace cost the global economy an estimated US$445 billion, higher than many economies' national incomes. In this context, the Reportcalls for action to build resilience – the "resilience imperative" – and identifies practical examples of how it could be done.The Report also steps back and explores how emerging global risks and major trends, such as climate change, the rise of cyber dependence and income and wealth disparity are impacting already-strained societies by highlighting three clusters of risks as Risks in Focus. As resilience building is helped by the ability to analyse global risks from the perspective of specific stakeholders, the Report also analyses the significance of global risks to the business community at a regional and country-level

Natural resources conservation management and strategies in agriculture

This paper suggests a holistic framework for assessment and improvement of management strategies for conservation of natural resources in agriculture. First, it incorporates an interdisciplinary approach (combining Economics, Organization, Law, Sociology, Ecology, Technology, Behavioral and Political Sciences) and presents a modern framework for assessing environmental management and strategies in agriculture including: specification of specific “managerial needs” and spectrum of feasible governance modes (institutional environment; private, collective, market, and public modes) of natural resources conservation at different level of decision-making (individual, farm, eco-system, local, regional, national, transnational, and global); specification of critical socio-economic, natural, technological, behavioral etc. factors of managerial choice, and feasible spectrum of (private, collective, public, international) managerial strategies; assessment of efficiency of diverse management strategies in terms of their potential to protect diverse eco-rights and investments, assure socially desirable level of environmental protection and improvement, minimize overall (implementing, third-party, transaction etc.) costs, coordinate and stimulate eco-activities, meet preferences and reconcile conflicts of individuals etc. Second, it presents evolution and assesses the efficiency of diverse management forms and strategies for conservation of natural resources in Bulgarian agriculture during post-communist transformation and EU integration (institutional, market, private, and public), and evaluates the impacts of EU CAP on environmental sustainability of farms of different juridical type, size, specialization and location. Finally, it suggests recommendations for improvement of public policies, strategies and modes of intervention, and private and collective strategies and actions for effective environmental protection

Market-based Options for Security of Energy Supply

Energy market liberalization and international economic interdependence have affected governments’ ability to react to security of supply challenges. On the other side, whereas in the past security of supply was largely seen as a national responsibility, the frame of reference has increasingly become the EU in which liberation increases security of supply mainly by increasing the number of markets participants and improving the flexibility of energy systems. In this logic, security of supply becomes a risk management strategy with a strong inclination towards cost effectiveness, involving both the supply and the demand side. Security of supply has two major components that interrelate: cost and risk. This paper focus the attention on costs in the attempt to develop a market compatible approach geared towards security of supply.Energy supply, Market-based options

Climate and southern Africa's water-energy-food nexus

In southern Africa, the connections between climate and the water-energy-food nexus are strong. Physical and socioeconomic exposure to climate is high in many areas and in crucial economic sectors. Spatial interdependence is also high, driven for example, by the regional extent of many climate anomalies and river basins and aquifers that span national boundaries. There is now strong evidence of the effects of individual climate anomalies, but associations between national rainfall and Gross Domestic Product and crop production remain relatively weak. The majority of climate models project decreases in annual precipitation for southern Africa, typically by as much as 20% by the 2080s. Impact models suggest these changes would propagate into reduced water availability and crop yields. Recognition of spatial and sectoral interdependencies should inform policies, institutions and investments for enhancing water, energy and food security. Three key political and economic instruments could be strengthened for this purpose; the Southern African Development Community, the Southern African Power Pool, and trade of agricultural products amounting to significant transfers of embedded water

Developing green: A case for the Brazilian manufacturing industry

The recent IPCC Special Report on global warming of 1.5 °C emphasizes that rapid action to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is vital to achieving the climate mitigation goals of the Paris Agreement. The most-needed substantial upscaling of investments in GHG mitigation options in all sectors, and particularly in manufacturing sectors, can be an opportunity for a green economic development leap in developing countries. Here, we use the Brazilian manufacturing sectors as an example to explore a transformation of its economy while contributing to the Paris targets. Projections of Brazil's economic futures with and without a portfolio of fiscal policies to induce low carbon investments are produced up to 2030 (end year of Brazil's Nationally Determined Contribution-NDC), by employing the large-scale macro econometric Energy-Environment-Economy Model, E3ME. Our findings highlight that the correct mix of green stimulus can help modernize and decarbonize the Brazilian manufacturing sectors and allow the country's economy to grow faster (by up to 0.42% compared to baseline) while its carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions decline (by up to 14.5% in relation to baseline). Investment levels increase, thereby strengthening exports' competitiveness and alleviating external constraints to long-term economic growth in net terms