The Risk Analysis Controversy: An Institutional Perspective

Risk analysis has generated considerable controversy in recent years as to its meaning with respect to societal decision making. The papers in this book highlight different aspects of the risk debate. In particular, confidence in expert statements on risk has diminished and there has been an increasing recognition of the difference between analysis of the risk associated with an event and people's preferences/values. These concerns are articulated in the papers and discussions contained here. The volume does not provide answers to the dilemma facing society but rather raises a set of questions which need to be considered

RISK MANAGEMENT IN LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS PORTS AND MARINE TERMINALS SUPPLY CHAINS

Due to its environmental attributes, Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) as a clean fossil fuel source of energy has witnessed a steady increase in demand worldwide over the last decade. This increase is mainly attributed to higher demand from the power generation sector as well as from domestic and industrial usages .This growing role of LNG among competing energy sources has raised concerns over the safety and security of the LNG chain of production, transport and distribution and its related infrastructure. Within this context, LNG ports and marine terminals, being strategically located at the midstream of the LNG Supply Chain (SC), are further exposed to safety and security risks and represent credible targets for international terrorism. Ensuring uninterrupted, robust and resilient LNG SC requires first, adequate management of safety and security risks in LNG ports and marine terminals. While each discipline of risk, be it safety or security, has received significant attention both in theory and practice, less attention was given to the management of interfaces and shared impacts among LNG Ports safety and security risks which led to the existence of gaps in the risk management (RM) systems of LNG ports and may represent a major source of risk and disruption to LNG ports. This research addresses such gaps which are poorly addressed in the current literature and proposes a holistic and integrated approach to the issues of LNG ports safety and security risks assessment and management. It also aims to model safety and security RM from a SC perspective and examines the relationships and shared impacts among LNG ports safety and security risks in the present context of increased LNG demand worldwide in the post 9/11 terrorism era. A unique combination of multiple methods within port and maritime SCs, including a Delphi survey, quantitative survey, Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) and a focus group expert consultation, is applied to reformulate the prevailing RM approach marked by dichotomy and a disciplinary silo and to propose a more enhanced and holistic approach to safety and security RM. The results of the study confirm that an integrated and holistic approach to the issue of RM in LNG ports and marine terminals is necessary to cost-effectively address safety and security risks and ensure reliable and resilient LNG SCs. Furthermore, a practical framework, in the form of a conceptual model, for LNG ports risks and emergencies management is proposed which integrates all facets of safety and security risks and emergencies management, including risk prevention, mitigation, emergency planning and response and port business continuity. The proposed conceptual model shows how the proposed RM approach can be practically applied in the context of LNG ports in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, as well as in any LNG port worldwide which lacks an integrated approach to risks and emergencies management.Sel

An Overview of Worldwide Risk Tolerability Criteria for Chemical Process Industries

PresentationQuantitative risk assessment is accepted as a process safety management tool in many countries throughout the world. Risk-based legislation is implemented by national governmental bodies. These organizations are often under public scrutiny, which indicates a high degree of societal endorsement of the values. There are at least three themes that are commonly used in the development of many generally accepted and recognized risk criteria: (1) a comprehensive risk management program must address both individual and societal risk; (2) risk criteria for the public must be lower, i.e. more conservative, than those for the workforce since the workforce risk is considered to be voluntary; and (3) with respect to individual risk, new facilities should be held to a higher level of risk performance than existing facilities. For new facilities many opportunities exist to apply new/advanced risk reduction technologies. In contrast, societal risk criteria are universally identical for new and existing situations; i.e., where a potential exists for major accident events affecting large numbers of people, most regulators have judged that older facilities must meet the same standards as newer facilities. This paper evaluates various international risk criteria in use today, and evaluates their respective merits. It also provides suggestions for companies or countries considering implementing their own risk tolerability criteria

Libertação acidental de gases tóxicos: modelação e avaliação do risco

Doutoramento em Ciências Aplicadas ao AmbienteThe renewed concern in assessing risks and consequences from technological hazards in industrial and urban areas continues emphasizing the development of local-scale consequence analysis (CA) modelling tools able to predict shortterm pollution episodes and exposure effects on humans and the environment in case of accident with hazardous gases (hazmat). In this context, the main objective of this thesis is the development and validation of the EFfects of Released Hazardous gAses (EFRHA) model. This modelling tool is designed to simulate the outflow and atmospheric dispersion of heavy and passive hazmat gases in complex and build-up areas, and to estimate the exposure consequences of short-term pollution episodes in accordance to regulatory/safety threshold limits. Five main modules comprising up-to-date methods constitute the model: meteorological, terrain, source term, dispersion, and effects modules. Different initial physical states accident scenarios can be examined. Considered the main core of the developed tool, the dispersion module comprises a shallow layer modelling approach capable to account the main influence of obstacles during the hazmat gas dispersion phenomena. Model validation includes qualitative and quantitative analyses of main outputs by the comparison of modelled results against measurements and/or modelled databases. The preliminary analysis of meteorological and source term modules against modelled outputs from extensively validated models shows the consistent description of ambient conditions and the variation of the hazmat gas release. Dispersion is compared against measurements observations in obstructed and unobstructed areas for different release and dispersion scenarios. From the performance validation exercise, acceptable agreement was obtained, showing the reasonable numerical representation of measured features. In general, quality metrics are within or close to the acceptance limits recommended for ‘non-CFD models’, demonstrating its capability to reasonably predict hazmat gases accidental release and atmospheric dispersion in industrial and urban areas. EFRHA model was also applied to a particular case study, the Estarreja Chemical Complex (ECC), for a set of accidental release scenarios within a CA scope. The results show the magnitude of potential effects on the surrounding populated area and influence of the type of accident and the environment on the main outputs. Overall the present thesis shows that EFRHA model can be used as a straightforward tool to support CA studies in the scope of training and planning, but also, to support decision and emergency response in case of hazmat gases accidental release in industrial and built-up areas.A renovada preocupação na avaliação dos riscos e consequências dos perigos tecnológicos em zonas industriais e urbanas continua a enfatizar o desenvolvimento de modelos de análise de consequências (AC) à escala local, capazes de simular episódios de poluição de curto prazo e seus efeitos na saúde humana e ambiente resultantes da exposição em situação de acidentes com substâncias perigosas. Neste sentido, o principal objecto desta tese é o desenvolvimento e validação do modelo Efects of Released Hazardous gAses (EFRHA). Esta ferramenta foi desenvolvida para simular a libertação e dispersão atmosférica de gases perigosos pesados e passivos em ambientes de topografia complexa e edificados, bem como, estimar as consequências da exposição a episódios de poluição de curta duração de acordo com limites de segurança e controlo. O modelo é constituído por cinco módulos principais: meteorológico, fontes, terreno, dispersão e efeitos. Diferentes estados físicos e tipos de acidente podem ser analisados. Considerado o elemento principal da ferramenta, o módulo de dispersão é baseado na modelação ‘shallow layer’, que permite considerar a influência de obstáculos na dispersão de gases perigosos. A validação do modelo inclui métodos de análise qualitativa e quantitativa através da comparação dos principais outputs com bases de dados medidos ou simulados. A análise preliminar dos módulos meteorológica e fontes baseada na comparação com resultados de modelos também validados demonstra a correcta descrição das condições ambientais e da variação das características da fonte ao longo da libertação. O módulo de dispersão é comparado com resultados de medições experimentais considerando diferentes condições de libertação e dispersão atmosférica. Em geral, os critérios de qualidade estimados encontram-se dentro dos limites de aceitação para modelos ‘non-CFD’, demonstrando a capacidade para simular razoavelmente a libertação e dispersão atmosférica de gases pesados perigosos em ambientes industriais e urbanos. O modelo EFRHA também foi aplicado a um caso de estudo, o Complexo Químico de Estarreja (ECC), com base num conjunto de cenários de libertação acidental, no âmbito de um estudo de AC. Os resultados demonstram a potencial magnitude dos efeitos na área envolvente ao ECC, bem como a influência das condições meteorológicas e tipo de acidente. De um modo geral, a presente tese demonstra a aplicabilidade do modelo como ferramenta para estudos de CA, bem como no suporte à decisão e preparação de resposta de emergência em situação de libertação acidental em zonas urbanas e industriais

California Methanol Assessment; Volume II, Technical Report

A joint effort by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the California Institute of Technology Division of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering has brought together sponsors from both the public and private sectors for an analysis of the prospects for methanol use as a fuel in California, primarily for the transportation and stationary application sectors. Increasing optimism in 1982 for a slower rise in oil prices and a more realistic understanding of the costs of methanol production have had a negative effect on methanol viability in the near term (before the year 2000). Methanol was determined to have some promise in the transportation sector, but is not forecasted for large-scale use until beyond the year 2000. Similarly, while alternative use of methanol can have a positive effect on air quality (reducing NOx, SOx, and other emissions), a best case estimate is for less than 4% reduction in peak ozone by 2000 at realistic neat methanol vehicle adoption rates. Methanol is not likely to be a viable fuel in the stationary application sector because it cannot compete economically with conventional fuels except in very limited cases. On the production end, it was determined that methanol produced from natural gas will continue to dominate supply options through the year 2000, and the present and planned industry capacity is somewhat in excess of all projected needs. Nonsubsidized coal-based methanol cannot compete with conventional feedstocks using current technology, but coal-based methanol has promise in the long term (after the year 2000), providing that industry is willing to take the technical and market risks and that government agencies will help facilitate the environment for methanol. Given that the prospects for viable major markets (stationary applications and neat fuel in passenger cars) are unlikely in the 1980s and early 1990s, the next steps for methanol are in further experimentation and research of production and utilization technologies, expanded use as an octane enhancer, and selected fleet implementation. In the view of the study, it is not advantageous at this time to establish policies within California that attempt to expand methanol use rapidly as a neat fuel for passenger cars or to induce electric utility use of methanol on a widespread basis

Coping with conflicting perceptions of risk in hazardous waste facility siting disputes

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Urban Studies and Planning, 1984.MICROFICHE COPY AVAILABLE IN ARCHIVES AND ROTCH.Vita.Bibliography: leaves 261-291.by Michael Lawrence Poirier Elliott.Ph.D

Application of Risk Analysis in the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Sector: An Overview

In recent years, the global demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) as an energy source is increasing at a very fast rate. In order to meet this demand, a large number of facilities such as platforms, FPSO (floating production, storage and offloading), FSRU (floating storage and regasification unit) and LNG ships and terminals are required for the storage, processing and transportation of LNG. Failure of any of these facilities may expose the market, companies, personnel and the environment to hazards, hence making the application of risk analysis to the LNG sector a very topical issue throughout the world. To assess the risk of accidents associated with LNG facilities and carriers, various risk analysis approaches have been employed to identify the potential hazards, calculate the probability of accidents, as well as assessing the severity of consequences. Nonetheless, literature on classification of the risk analysis models applied to LNG facilities is very limited. Therefore, to reveal the holistic issues and future perspectives on risk analysis of LNG facilities, a systematic review of the current state-of-the-art research on LNG risk analysis is necessary. The aim of this paper is to review and categorize the published literature about the problems associated with risk analysis of LNG facilities, so as to improve the understanding of stakeholders (researchers, regulators, and practitioners). To achieve this aim, scholarly articles on LNG risk analysis are identified, reviewed, and then categorized according to risk assessment methods (qualitative, semi-qualitative or quantitative; deterministic or probabilistic; conventional or dynamic), tools (ETA, FTA, FMEA/FMECA, Bayesian network), output/strategy (RBI, RBM, RBIM, facility siting, etc.), data sources (OREDA handbook, published literature, UK HSE databases, regulatory agencies' reports, industry datasets, and experts’ consultations), applications (LNG carriers and LNG fuelled ships, LNG terminals and stations, LNG offshore floating units, LNG plants), etc. Our study will not only be useful to researchers engaged in these areas but will also assist regulators, policy makers, and operators of LNG facilities to find the risk analysis models that fit their specific requirements

Risk Analysis and Decision Processes: The Siting of Liquefied Energy Gas Facilities in Four Countries

This book fills a gap in the growing literature on "risk", "risk analysis", and "technology assessment" by examining the political, institutional, and social processes that underlie public policies on questions such as the siting of large-scale technologies, involving health and safety risks to the public. Specifically it investigates the decision processes for siting liquefied energy gas (LEG) facilities in four countries: the Federal Republic of Germany, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The book also compares different risk assessments prepared by analysts in each of the four countries and reveals some rather wide discrepancies between estimates of the probability of accidents even for the same facility. The concluding portion of the book examines the analyst's role within the social and political context of the siting debates and suggests selected institutional and procedural reforms. A cross-national approach to these questions serves to highlight various aspects of national procedures that otherwise might go unnoticed

Fear and Loathing in the Siting of Hazardous and Radioactive Waste Facilities: A Comprehensive Approach to a Misperceived Crisis

Few laws have failed so completely as the federal and state statutes designed to create new facilities for the disposal of hazardous and radioactive waste. Despite scores of siting attempts and the expenditure of several billion dollars since the mid-1970s, only one radioactive waste disposal facility, only one hazardous waste landfill (in the aptly named Last Chance, Colorado), and merely a handful of hazardous waste treatment and incineration units are operating on new sites in the United States today. In 1981, a leading member of Congress, relying on data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), predicted that by 1985 the country would need between 50 and 125 new off-site hazardous waste disposal facilities. Numerous legal commentators also stressed that many more facilities were desperately needed if the nation was to avert an environmental crisis. These facilities have not been built, yet no such crisis exists. The shortage of disposal facilities is actually far less severe and more localized than is usually portrayed. Its principal adverse environmental impact is that old, substandard, leaking disposal units stay open because there are no replacements. But there is a genuine political crisis – hundreds of battles have raged around the country, some dethroning elected officials, and some verging on violence – over the efforts of the federal and state governments to force hated facilities on terrified communities. In this Article, I propose an approach to resolve the impasse in siting disposal facilities for hazardous wastes (HWs) and radioactive wastes (RWs). In doing so, I argue that the siting laws are based on a fundamental conceptual error, as well as several factual mistakes and policy blunders