Further thoughts on precision

Background: There has been much discussion amongst automated software defect prediction researchers regarding use of the precision and false positive rate classifier performance metrics. Aim: To demonstrate and explain why failing to report precision when using data with highly imbalanced class distributions may provide an overly optimistic view of classifier performance. Method: Well documented examples of how dependent class distribution affects the suitability of performance measures. Conclusions: When using data where the minority class represents less than around 5 to 10 percent of data points in total, failing to report precision may be a critical mistake. Furthermore, deriving the precision values omitted from studies can reveal valuable insight into true classifier performancePeer reviewedFinal Accepted Versio

Application of neural networks and sensitivity analysis to improved prediction of trauma survival

Application of neural networks and sensitivity analysis to improved prediction of trauma surviva

A new method for detection and source analysis of EEG spikes

In the past our research group has developed a method for the detection of focal epileptic EEG (electroencephalogram) spikes that is based on the dipole source localization technique and provides a source localization for each detected spike. In this paper we revisit this method and propose a more accurate explanation of its behavior. Based on this we (i) propose a new method for the detection of epileptic EEG spikes in which the eccentricity of the fitted dipole serves as a new decision variable (ii) conclude that for EEG spike detection one has to make a distinction between EEGs acquired during sleep and during wake

Revisiting the Far Right Violent Extremist Threat: Violent Extremist Plot Success From 1948 Through 2017

Far Right violent extremists have successfully executed over 150 violent plots in the United States in just the past decade. This exploratory study analyzed Far Right violent extremist plot success with the plot success of Islamist violent extremists, Far Left violent extremists, and Single Issue violent extremists based on publicly available data from the Profiles of Individual Radicalization in the United States (PIRUS) for the period of 1948 through 2017. By evaluating existing literature on Far Right violent extremism and analyzing the available PIRUS data, it was discovered that while Far Right violent extremists executed more successful violent plots than the other violent ideological extremist groups, Far Left violent extremists proportionally had more successful violent plots. A sample from the PIRUS database was explored, and the analysis demonstrates that the variables of Far Left radicalization, violence against persons and property, and plot preparation are significantly correlated with violent plot success

Batch Size Influence on Performance of Graphic and Tensor Processing Units during Training and Inference Phases

The impact of the maximally possible batch size (for the better runtime) on performance of graphic processing units (GPU) and tensor processing units (TPU) during training and inference phases is investigated. The numerous runs of the selected deep neural network (DNN) were performed on the standard MNIST and Fashion-MNIST datasets. The significant speedup was obtained even for extremely low-scale usage of Google TPUv2 units (8 cores only) in comparison to the quite powerful GPU NVIDIA Tesla K80 card with the speedup up to 10x for training stage (without taking into account the overheads) and speedup up to 2x for prediction stage (with and without taking into account overheads). The precise speedup values depend on the utilization level of TPUv2 units and increase with the increase of the data volume under processing, but for the datasets used in this work (MNIST and Fashion-MNIST with images of sizes 28x28) the speedup was observed for batch sizes >512 images for training phase and >40 000 images for prediction phase. It should be noted that these results were obtained without detriment to the prediction accuracy and loss that were equal for both GPU and TPU runs up to the 3rd significant digit for MNIST dataset, and up to the 2nd significant digit for Fashion-MNIST dataset.Comment: 10 pages, 7 figures, 2 table

Failure prediction models: performance, disagreements, and internal rating systems. NBB Working Papers. No. 123, 13 December 2007

We address a number of comparative issues relating to the performance of failure prediction models for small, private firms. We use two models provided by vendors, a model developed by the National Bank of Belgium, and the Altman Z-score model to investigate model power, the extent of disagreement between models in the ranking of firms, and the design of internal rating systems. We also examine the potential gains from combining the output of multiple models. We find that the power of all four models in predicting bankruptcies is very good at the one-year horizon, even though not all of the models were developed using bankruptcy data and the models use different statistical methodologies. Disagreements in firm rankings are nevertheless significant across models, and model choice will have an impact on loan pricing and origination decisions. We find that it is possible to realize important gains from combining models with similar power. In addition, we show that it can also be beneficial to combine a weaker model with a stronger one if disagreements across models with respect to failing firms are high enough. Finally, the number of classes in an internal rating system appears to be more important than the distribution of borrowers across classes

Serum microRNA array analysis identifies miR-140-3p, miR-33b-3p and miR-671-3p as potential osteoarthritis biomarkers involved in metabolic processes.

Background: MicroRNAs (miRNAs) in circulation have emerged as promising biomarkers. In this study, we aimed to identify a circulating miRNA signature for osteoarthritis (OA) patients and in combination with bioinformatics analysis to evaluate the utility of selected differentially expressed miRNAs in the serum as potential OA biomarkers. Methods: Serum samples were collected from 12 primary OA patients, and 12 healthy individuals were screened using the Agilent Human miRNA Microarray platform interrogating 2549 miRNAs. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed to evaluate the diagnostic performance of the deregulated miRNAs. Expression levels of selected miRNAs were validated by quantitative real-time PCR (qRT-PCR) in all serum and in articular cartilage samples from OA patients (n = 12) and healthy individuals (n = 7). Bioinformatics analysis was used to investigate the involved pathways and target genes for the above miRNAs. Results: We identified 279 differentially expressed miRNAs in the serum of OA patients compared to controls. Two hundred and five miRNAs (73.5%) were upregulated and 74 (26.5%) downregulated. ROC analysis revealed that 77 miRNAs had area under the curve (AUC) > 0.8 and p < 0.05. Bioinformatics analysis in the 77 miRNAs revealed that their target genes were involved in multiple signaling pathways associated with OA, among which FoxO, mTOR, Wnt, pI3K/akt, TGF-β signaling pathways, ECM-receptor interaction, and fatty acid biosynthesis. qRT-PCR validation in seven selected out of the 77 miRNAs revealed 3 significantly downregulated miRNAs (hsa-miR-33b-3p, hsa-miR-671-3p, and hsa-miR-140-3p) in the serum of OA patients, which were in silico predicted to be enriched in pathways involved in metabolic processes. Target-gene analysis of hsa-miR-140-3p, hsa-miR-33b-3p, and hsa-miR-671-3p revealed that InsR and IGFR1 were common targets of all three miRNAs, highlighting their involvement in regulation of metabolic processes that contribute to OA pathology. Hsa-miR-140-3p and hsa-miR-671-3p expression levels were consistently downregulated in articular cartilage of OA patients compared to healthy individuals. Conclusions: A serum miRNA signature was established for the first time using high density resolution miR-arrays in OA patients. We identified a three-miRNA signature, hsa-miR-140-3p, hsa-miR-671-3p, and hsa-miR-33b-3p, in the serum of OA patients, predicted to regulate metabolic processes, which could serve as a potential biomarker for the evaluation of OA risk and progression.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio