120,189 research outputs found
The safety case and the lessons learned for the reliability and maintainability case
This paper examine the safety case and the lessons learned for the reliability and maintainability case
System reliability analyses and optimal maintenance planning of corroding pipelines
The failure of corroding pipeline joints may induce severe consequences. However, maintenance is expensive due to the cost of excavating and repairing a single joint and typically a significant number of joints that need repair. It is central to develop an optimal cost-effective maintenance strategy that balances cost and safety. A key component of the strategy is the reliability based condition evaluation of pipeline joints. The focus of the research reported in this thesis is therefore developing efficient reliability assessment methods for pipeline individual joints, and developing an optimal maintenance framework for the entire pipeline system.
First, efficient system reliability methods relying on the first-order reliability method (FORM) and important sampling (IS) are developed for the assessment of the time-dependent probabilities of small leak and burst failure of pipeline joints containing multiple corrosion defects. In addition, a novel method is developed within the FORM to obtain the design points efficiently. An improved equivalent component approach for evaluating multi-normal integrals is also developed to improve the efficiency of the FORM for system reliability analysis.
In addition, a multi-objective optimization-based maintenance framework for corroding pipeline systems is formulated optimizing three objectives, i.e. the conditioned probabilities of burst and small leak, respectively, and repair cost. An improved genetic algorithm with a pre-training population is utilized to investigate the optimal Pareto front. The benefits of this framework enable decision makers to access a series of non-dominated optimal repairing solutions with respect to multiple conflicting objectives
Bayesian Subset Simulation: a kriging-based subset simulation algorithm for the estimation of small probabilities of failure
The estimation of small probabilities of failure from computer simulations is
a classical problem in engineering, and the Subset Simulation algorithm
proposed by Au & Beck (Prob. Eng. Mech., 2001) has become one of the most
popular method to solve it. Subset simulation has been shown to provide
significant savings in the number of simulations to achieve a given accuracy of
estimation, with respect to many other Monte Carlo approaches. The number of
simulations remains still quite high however, and this method can be
impractical for applications where an expensive-to-evaluate computer model is
involved. We propose a new algorithm, called Bayesian Subset Simulation, that
takes the best from the Subset Simulation algorithm and from sequential
Bayesian methods based on kriging (also known as Gaussian process modeling).
The performance of this new algorithm is illustrated using a test case from the
literature. We are able to report promising results. In addition, we provide a
numerical study of the statistical properties of the estimator.Comment: 11th International Probabilistic Assessment and Management Conference
(PSAM11) and The Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL
2012), Helsinki : Finland (2012
Reliable fault-tolerant model predictive control of drinking water transport networks
This paper proposes a reliable fault-tolerant model predictive control applied to drinking water transport networks. After a fault has occurred, the predictive controller should be redesigned to cope with the fault effect. Before starting to apply the fault-tolerant control strategy, it should be evaluated whether the predictive controller will be able to continue operating after the fault appearance. This is done by means of a structural analysis to determine loss of controllability after the fault complemented with feasibility analysis of the optimization problem related to the predictive controller design, so as to consider the fault effect in actuator constraints. Moreover, by evaluating the admissibility of the different actuator-fault configurations, critical actuators regarding fault tolerance can be identified considering structural, feasibility, performance and reliability analyses. On the other hand, the proposed approach allows a degradation analysis of the system to be performed. As a result of these analyses, the predictive controller design can be modified by adapting constraints such that the best achievable performance with some pre-established level of reliability will be achieved. The proposed approach is tested on the Barcelona drinking water transport network.Postprint (author's final draft
Adaptive Robust Optimization with Dynamic Uncertainty Sets for Multi-Period Economic Dispatch under Significant Wind
The exceptional benefits of wind power as an environmentally responsible
renewable energy resource have led to an increasing penetration of wind energy
in today's power systems. This trend has started to reshape the paradigms of
power system operations, as dealing with uncertainty caused by the highly
intermittent and uncertain wind power becomes a significant issue. Motivated by
this, we present a new framework using adaptive robust optimization for the
economic dispatch of power systems with high level of wind penetration. In
particular, we propose an adaptive robust optimization model for multi-period
economic dispatch, and introduce the concept of dynamic uncertainty sets and
methods to construct such sets to model temporal and spatial correlations of
uncertainty. We also develop a simulation platform which combines the proposed
robust economic dispatch model with statistical prediction tools in a rolling
horizon framework. We have conducted extensive computational experiments on
this platform using real wind data. The results are promising and demonstrate
the benefits of our approach in terms of cost and reliability over existing
robust optimization models as well as recent look-ahead dispatch models.Comment: Accepted for publication at IEEE Transactions on Power System
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