Multi-criteria risk assessment: Case study of a large hydroelectric project

This is a PDF file of an unedited manuscript that has been accepted for publication[Abstarct]: Run-of-river hydroelectric plants along Amazon River tributaries have been shown to be an ecologically viable alternative to meet Brazilian energy demand. These plants are a solution to add capacity. However, due to geographic and socioeconomic characteristics of this region, there are risks that cannot be disregarded. This study reports the application of multi-criteria analysis to identify risk events for the Santo Antonio Hydroelectric Plant under construction, related to service packs relevant to the project. The choice of the appropriate technique took into consideration the imprecision of subjective judgment. The fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) enabled inserting a measure of inaccuracy, represented by the degree of fuzziness, assigned to each pairwise comparison. Fuzziness was incorporated into the process by means of a triangular membership function. The convergence of opinion was assessed by comparing the hierarchical order of the perceived risks identified by two distinct groups, the owner consortium, and the builder consortium. These groups have similar risk perceptions, despite having different roles and asymmetric risk sharing caused mainly by the characteristics and provisions contained in the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract. The model was efficient in ranking the risk events from the perspective of the two groups, therefore constituting a rational and transparent approach for risk management in large projects

Prioritization of Contracting Methods for Water and Wastewater Projects Using the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process Method

This study uses the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP) method to prioritize contracting methods to determine the most suitable contract option for water and wastewater projects (WWP). Content analysis, a two-round Delphi survey technique, and a series of validation and reliability tests helped establish the 18 key criteria for FAHP analysis. Consequently, data collected from experts through a pairwise comparison questionnaire form the basis for the inputs for the FAHP analysis. Consequently, the final weightings were derived for each of the key criteria and available contracting methods. The results indicate that the bilateral, cooperative, and trilateral contracting methods are the most suitable for WWP in Iran, with the highest weighting. The study provides useful guidance for the top management of project firms in selecting the optimal contracting method for their projects and offers significant contributions from theoretical and practical perspectives

Balanced scorecard-based performance assessment of Turkish banking sector with the Analytic Network Process (ANP)

In the last decade, Performance assessment of banking sectors in advanced economies became a prominent issue investment decision. This paper aims to evaluate the balanced-scorecard-based performance of the Turkish banking sector using the Analytic Network Process Approach. Within this scope, all 33 deposit banks were intended to analyze out of 34 banks. Within this scope, we made an analysis in order to determine which perspectives of the balanced scorecard approach are appropriate for each type of bank (state banks, private banks, foreign banks). In this study, we used Analytic Network Process (ANP) approaches so as to achieve this objective. With a balanced-scorecard performance assessment of the banking sector using the ANP approach, all the factor priorities have been extracted and normalized to one for each cluster and final priorities have been obtained. The final priorities and rankings of each perspective of the balanced scorecard and the type of bank ownership have been assessed in the model. According to the results of the analysis, Findings demonstrate that (i) financial factor of balanced scorecard approach has the first rank with 65.7 percent; (ii) Customer perceptive is in the second rank with 22.1 percent. (iii)Third and fourth ranks have close results, (iv) learning and growth stay in the third rank with 6.3 percent (v) internal factor has the weakest importance with 5.9%, (vi) state banks into bank ownership have the highest rank with 53.9 percent, (vii) Private owned banks are the second in the relative performance of the bank groups with 36.1%, (viii) Balanced scorecard based performance of foreign banks are replaced in the last order with approximately 10%

A hybrid traceability technology selection approach for sustainable food supply chains

Traceability technologies have great potential to improve sustainable performance in cold food supply chains by reducing food loss. In existing approaches, traceability technologies are selected either intuitively or through a random approach, that neither considers the trade-off between multiple cost–benefit technology criteria nor systematically translates user requirements for traceability systems into the selection process. This paper presents a hybrid approach combining the fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) with integer linear programming to select the optimum traceability technologies for improving sustainable performance in cold food supply chains. The proposed methodology is applied in four case studies utilising data collected from literature and expert interviews. The proposed approach can assist decision-makers, e.g., food business operators and technology companies, to identify what combination of technologies best suits a given food supply chain scenario and reduces food loss at minimum cost.Cambridge Trust and Commonwealth Scholarship Commission

Design for Disassembly and Sustainability Assessment to Support Aircraft End-of-Life Treatment

RÉSUMÉ L’industrie aéronautique se développe vers une économie circulaire avec la réutilisation de ses matériaux et composants. Pourtant, chaque année, des centaines d’avions finissent à l’enfouissement sans un traitement approprié. Pour faire face à ce problème, cette recherche s’est principalement concentrée sur deux approches à savoir l’amélioration de la conception des avions en fin de vie au niveau de la phase de développement et l’amélioration des méthodes de traitement pour les avions retirés du marché lesquelles ont été conçus il y a des décennies. L’amélioration des produits durant sa phase de développement apparait comme une solution prometteuse pour maximiser le taux de revalorisation du produit. En attendant, le désassemblage apparait comme une activité évidente autant à la fin de vie du produit que durant sa période de fonctionnement (par exemple la maintenance des avions). Dans cette thèse, une nouvelle approche est introduite en vue d’être implémentée durant la phase de conception d’un avion, afin d’améliorer le désassemblage futur des avions en fin de vie. Pour ce faire, les travaux de désassemblage seront abordés comme un problème de prise de décision multicritères. Cinq paramètres sont considérés sur la base des expériences accumulées durant les travaux de désassemblage d’un avion régional Bombardier : « l’accessibilité », « les surfaces de contact », « les outils requis », « les types de connections » et « la quantité et les variantes des différentes connections ». Une méthode d’évaluation par pointage utilisant les méthodes de « conception pour l’expérimentation » (en anglais « Design of Experiment », ou l’acronyme « DOE ») et TOPSIS est développée. Les résultats d’ANOVA ont montré un taux de fiabilité de 94.3 % confirmant la pertinence du modèle. Le modèle proposé peut être facilement utilisé par les décideurs et les concepteurs en vue de la réingénierie, pour améliorer le désassemblage et, plus généralement, la valorisation des futurs avions en fin de vie. En vue d’améliorer les méthodes de traitement pour la fin de vie des avions, nous avons implémenté huit différentes stratégies de désassemblage/démantèlement sur la carcasse de l’avion mentionné ci-dessus. La durabilité et le développement durable deviennent de plus en plus le centre d’attention des industries. Agissant comme un fournisseur pour des industries plus influentes, les entreprises de démantèlement/recyclage devraient se concentrer sur des stratégies leur permettant une amélioration de leurs positions sur le marché. Un des facteurs clé serait de pratiquer la durabilité et le développement durable dans tous les procédés de démantèlement et de recyclage.----------ABSTRACT Despite aerospace industries are moving toward circular economy and reutilization of materials and components, every year hundreds of aircrafts end up in landfills without an appropriate treatment. To address this problem, this thesis has been focused on two main approaches: amelioration of aircraft design for end-of-life at the development phase and improvement of end-of-life treatment methods for aircrafts that have been designed decades ago and are currently retired. Amelioration of product design at the development phase stands as a very promising approach to increase the product recoverability rate. Meanwhile, disassembly appears as an inevitable activity for products not only at the end-of-life but also during the products life time and maintenance. In this thesis, a new approach is introduced to be implemented at the design phase for improving aircraft disassemblability at the end-of-life. For that, disassembly job was tackled as a multi-criteria decision-making problem. Five parameters were considered based on the experience accumulated during the disassembly work on a Bombardier Regional Jet aircraft: “Accessibility”, “Mating face”, “Tools required”, “Connection type”, and “Quantity and variety of connections”. A novel disassembly scoring model using a hybrid design of experiment (DOE) and TOPSIS method was developed. The results from ANOVA showed a 94.30% of reliability, and testified the adequacy of the model. The proposed model can be easily used by decision-makers, and designers for reengineering purposes to improve the disassembly and in a broader scope recoverability of the future aircrafts at the end-of-life. Towards the improvement of end-of-life treatment methods, in this work we have implemented eight different disassembly/dismantling strategies on the carcass of the above mentioned aircraft. Sustainability and sustainable development are more and more becoming the center of attention for different industries. Acting as a supplier for bigger industries, aircraft dismantler/recycler businesses should focus on strategies that allow to ameliorate their current position in the market. One of the key factors is to practice sustainability and sustainable development in all the dismantling and recycling processes. In this direction, the eight strategies employed were evaluated and compared in terms of sustainability. 19 indicators were defined to assess the environmental, social, and economic impacts of each strategy. The input data were provided from the experts who were engaged into the strategies implementation

Managing Supply for Construction Project with Uncertain Starting Date

There is a growing interest in supply management systems ¬¬in today’s competitive business environment. Importance of implementing supply management systems especially in home construction industry is due to the fact that several risks arising from different sources can adversely affect the project financially or its timely completion. Some risks of construction projects are out of managers’ control while other risks such as supply related ones can usually be controlled and directed by effective managerial tactics. In this thesis, we address the supplier selection problem (SSP) in wood-base construction projects in the presence of project commencement uncertainties. The project could be delayed for any reason and thus materials required for the project may not be needed on the promised date, however, pursuing the supplier for new delivery date may not be easy and without risk. Accepting the delivery before the project commencement date will be again a costly option because of the high holding cost. In this thesis, we present two problem cases and present heuristic based solution approaches. In the first case we assume that price of the product increases with the delay. In the second case we assume that promised quantity at the agreed price reduces with the delay. The proposed approaches are tested on the randomly generated data set and compared with the optimal solutions. The problems considered in this research are novel and the proposed approaches deal with the important and common risks in construction industry in order to achieve a robust supply chain. The solution approaches presented in this thesis can be applied to different industries to improve the quality and efficiency of supplier-buyer collaborations

Multi-criterial decision-making framework to identify the optimal on-site hybrid renewable energy system for the representative retrofitted domestic buildings in Wales and England

The research project created a decision-making framework to identify the optimal hybrid renewable energy system (HRES) for the retrofitted home in Wales and England. The HRES combines at least two UK government-recognised renewable systems, working with or without energy storage to supply different demands simultaneously. The optimal HRES is the most economically and practically feasible and environmentally friendly solution, helping the UK government to achieve the agreed climate change target by 2050 in the building sector. The development of the decision-making framework consists of two steps. The first step is to select the representative retrofitted home in Wales and England using the defined building character indicators. It then collects the economic-technical environmental data of each potential renewable system and the representative energy tariff and emission factor of the national grid and natural gas in 2022. The second step is to create several different spreadsheets to evaluate the performance of HRES, calculate the weighting values and rank HRES. It first creates a spreadsheet to assess the economic-technical-environmental performance of HRES supported by the collected data from the first step. It also creates a spreadsheet to calculate the weighting values of such performance indicators based on the collected perceptions from the surveyed householders in Cardiff. Finally, it creates the spreadsheet to rank HRES supported by the evaluated performance results and the calculated weighting values. The PV+ASHP+STC is the optimal combination under the weighting values from the surveyed householders’ perceptions. However, PV+ASHP+STC+Battery is the optimal combination under the same weighting values for each selected decision-making indicator. This is because the economic performance was heavily weighted by the householders; PV+ASHP+STC has better economic performance than PV+ASHP+STC+Battery. It also discusses the advantages of using HRES combination with/without battery compared with the electricity grid and natural gas from the economic-technical-environmental perspectives. The discussion results drive the new energy policy and financial incentive development to encourage better householders to invest in renewable systems

Modelling Supply Chain Coordination: An Application of Analytic Hierarchy Process under Fuzzy Environment

Coordination of supply chain of trading partner plays a crucial role in improving overall supply chain performance. For allocating the component or services to trading partner, it would be significant to analyze the supply chain coordination of the trading partner. In order to prioritize supply chain coordination mechanisms the conventional methods are hardly adequate to deal with the imprecise or vague nature of linguistic assessment. To overcome this difficulty, fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making model is proposed. In this study, a fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process is applied for prioritization of coordination mechanisms for selected supply chain. A case study of Indian automotive parts manufacturing company is described to illustrate the application of the used method. This paper presents how Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) can be applied to allow for evaluation and prioritization of mechanisms used to coordinate a supply chain. After determining, the coordination criteria that affect the Supply chain partner prioritization, fuzzy AHP method is applied to the problem and results related to the prioritization of coordination mechanisms are presented

COPRAS method for multiple attribute group decision making under picture fuzzy environment and their application to green supplier selection

The green supplier selection (GSS) is a significant part in green supply chain management (GSCM). Choosing optimal green supplier can not only realize the sustainable development of enterprises, but also maximize the utilization rate of resources and diminish the negative effect of environmental issues, which conforms to the theme of green development. As a multiple attribute group decision-making (MAGDM) issue, selecting optimal green supplier is of vital important to enterprises. However, how to select the optimal supplier for enterprises is a great challenge. To handle this issue, a novel picture fuzzy COPRAS (COmplex PRoportional Assessment) method is devised. First, some necessary theories related to picture fuzzy sets (PFSs) are briefly reviewed. In addition, a method called CRITIC (Criteria Importance Though Intercrieria Correlation) is utilized to calculate criteria’s weights. Afterwards, the conventional COPRAS method is extended to the PFSs to calculate each alternative’s utility degree. At last, the designed method is exacted to an application which is related to GSS and there also conduct some comparative analysis to demonstrate the designed method’s superiority. The final results show that the proposed model can be utilized to decide the optimum green supplier