Mining Linguistic Associations for Emergent Flood Prediction Adjustment

Floods belong to the most hazardous natural disasters and their disaster management heavily relies on precise forecasts. These forecasts are provided by physical models based on differential equations. However, these models do depend on unreliable inputs such as measurements or parameter estimations which causes undesirable inaccuracies. Thus, an appropriate data-mining analysis of the physical model and its precision based on features that determine distinct situations seems to be helpful in adjusting the physical model. An application of fuzzy GUHA method in flood peak prediction is presented. Measured water flow rate data from a system for flood predictions were used in order to mine fuzzy association rules expressed in natural language. The provided data was firstly extended by a generation of artificial variables (features). The resulting variables were later on translated into fuzzy GUHA tables with help of Evaluative Linguistic Expressions in order to mine associations. The found associations were interpreted as fuzzy IF-THEN rules and used jointly with the Perception-based Logical Deduction inference method to predict expected time shift of flow rate peaks forecasted by the given physical model. Results obtained from this adjusted model were statistically evaluated and the improvement in the forecasting accuracy was confirmed

Converting Verbs into Adjectives: Asymmetrical Memory Distortions for Stereotypic and Counterstereotypic Information

This paper investigated the hypotheses that (a) inferences from behaviors to traits would occur more frequently than vice versa, (b) this induction-deduction asymmetry would be facilitated by stereotype congruence but inhibited by incongruence, and (c) the tendency to draw trait inferences from stereotype-congruent but not from stereotype-incongruent behaviors would become more pronounced with increasing levels of Need for Cognitive Closure. Participants read information about a female or male job applicant that was in part relevant to gender, in part gender-neutral. The gender-relevant information was either stereotype-congruent or incongruent. Half of the information was presented as trait-adjectives, half as behavior-descriptive verbs. A recognition task was constructed so that some of the items (traits and behaviors) had actually been seen, some were entirely new, and some were new but had been implied by the information given. All three hypotheses were supported. Implications for intra-individual and interpersonal stereotype maintenance are discussed

An Investigation of Semantic Invariance in Human Speech

The present investigation addresses the hypothesis of phonetic symbolism in human speech. As a psycholinguistic and epistemological concept, the phonetic symbol is understood to be a structural a priori in sound which correlates with the semantic properties of physiognomic, muscular tension. An extension of this hypothesis is the assumption that phonemes without conventional meaning in a language can approximate semantic equivalence of ordinary words under appropriate experimental conditions. This dissertation explores the psychodynamic parameters of phonetic symbol access. Specifically, it makes use of a variety of clinical and experimental tools to tap instinctual processes which could conceivably contribute to phonetic symbol access. It was reasoned that the phonetic symbol should represent a semantic unit from an early stage of linguistic evolution. Consequently, it was thought that persons who are most in touch with the instinctual residues of the distant past (i.e., the unconscious) would also have ready access to semantic a priori. In order to select subjects with differing propensity for instinctual thought, two widely accepted clinical instruments were employed. The Myers-Briggs Type Indicator was used to identify persons on the extremes of the attribute of intuition; Jungian psychology holds that high intuition is synonymous with access to unconscious and instinctual processes. The Rorschach Inkblot Test has been adapted by Holt (1970) to differentiate the Freudian constructs of primary and secondary process thought; further, Holt\u27s scoring system attempts to distinguish mature, creative primary process from disorganized primary process. The present study predicted a high correlation between easy access to instinctual contents (intuition, adaptive primary process) and skill in decoding phonetic symbols. Other experimental manipulations included examinations of the influence of cerebral laterality and interpersonal sensitivity on phonetic symbol skill. It was hypothesized that phonetic symbolism would correlate positively with right cerebral hemisphere processing and high interpersonal sensitivity. With the exception of the hypothesis concerning interpersonal sensitivity, none of the experimental hypotheses was supported. An unexpected correlation between female gender and phonetic symbol access was found; this was discussed in the context of previous findings demonstrating superior female verbal ability

Pragmatic factors of deontic reasoning

A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements of the University of Wolverhamptonfor the degree of Doctor of PhilosophyThis thesis is concerned with pragmatic factors of deontic reasoning, namely scale of violation, aggravating and mitigating circumstances and power of source. Nine experiments are reported investigating deontic reasoning and judgement revision. Experiment 1 established scale of violation as a modifying factor of a working rule with an inferential reasoning task, however, the effects were not transferred to a deductive reasoning task in Experiment 2. Scale of violation and circumstances were found to influence the reasoning of motoring violations with a major offence and aggravating circumstances being rated as more serious and receiving greater fines than a minor offence or mitigating circumstances (Experiments 3 & 4). These effects were also observed with a judgement revision task (Experiment 5). Power of source was included as an additional pragmatic factor and was found to influence the reasoning of conditional statements (Experiment 6), inducements (Experiment 7) and ratings of credibility and probability of outcomes (Experiment 8). The final study (Experiment 9) found significant effects for scale of violation / compliance and power of source within a judgement revision task. However, no difference was observed in the reasoning of superordinate and non-superordinate statements. The findings are explained in terms of the conditional probability hypothesis

Stance-taking and social status on an online bulletin board: A qualitative and quantitative approach

In this study, I demonstrate that social hierarchy and power are important aspects for understanding the use of epistemic and evidential stance verbs in computer-mediated communication. The data for the study come from an online bulletin board about rhythmic gymnastics, where the construction of social roles is believed to play a role in the expression of stance. The members of the community are divided into three hierarchically distinct social ranks based on status and activity on the board. I investigate whether members of a higher rank use epistemic and evidential stance verbs in a more authoritative manner than members of lower ranks using two methodological frameworks. In the qualitative part of the study, I adopt the dialogical discourse analysis to argue that epistemic and evidential stance is a dialogically constructed phenomenon that locally emerges between conversational co-participants. The quantitative part of the study employs the multifactorial usage-feature analysis, where two stance verbs think and seem are coded for a range of formal, semantic and extra-linguistic factors, which are believed to contribute to the differentiation of authoritative and tentative stance. The results show that bulletin board users of a higher rank exhibit a more authoritative and even aggressive use of epistemic and evidential stance verbs than users of lower ranks

Formalizing graphical notations

The thesis describes research into graphical notations for software engineering, with a principal interest in ways of formalizing them. The research seeks to provide a theoretical basis that will help in designing both notations and the software tools that process them. The work starts from a survey of literature on notation, followed by a review of techniques for formal description and for computational handling of notations. The survey concentrates on collecting views of the benefits and the problems attending notation use in software development; the review covers picture description languages, grammars and tools such as generic editors and visual programming environments. The main problem of notation is found to be a lack of any coherent, rigorous description methods. The current approaches to this problem are analysed as lacking in consensus on syntax specification and also lacking a clear focus on a defined concept of notated expression. To address these deficiencies, the thesis embarks upon an exploration of serniotic, linguistic and logical theory; this culminates in a proposed formalization of serniosis in notations, using categorial model theory as a mathematical foundation. An argument about the structure of sign systems leads to an analysis of notation into a layered system of tractable theories, spanning the gap between expressive pictorial medium and subject domain. This notion of 'tectonic' theory aims to treat both diagrams and formulae together. The research gives details of how syntactic structure can be sketched in a mathematical sense, with examples applying to software development diagrams, offering a new solution to the problem of notation specification. Based on these methods, the thesis discusses directions for resolving the harder problems of supporting notation design, processing and computer-aided generic editing. A number of future research areas are thereby opened up. For practical trial of the ideas, the work proceeds to the development and partial implementation of a system to aid the design of notations and editors. Finally the thesis is evaluated as a contribution to theory in an area which has not attracted a standard approach

The integrative effects of promotion attributes : implications for effective promotion design

Promotion attributes, such as giveaways, time limitation and exclusivity, are commonly studied separately. Previous studies may focus on how individual attributes (e.g. time pressure or price discounts) affect sales, but seldom consider the integrative effect of them. As individual attributes are often found to have a bilateral effect (both positive and negative) on sales, in this thesis, we explore how different attributes can be aligned with each other and integrated with different level of brand strength according to fit logic. That is how promotion elicits sales and generates word-of-mouth impact in terms of the configuration of promotional attributes and brand strength. We conduct a field study of 625 online promotion campaigns and discover several effective configurations of promotion attributes through qualitative comparative analysis (QCA). Based on the configurations we have found, we hypothesize that strong brands should adopt non-monetary promotion, while weak brands should adopt monetary promotion; exclusivity and time limitation should be kept mutually exclusive in a single promotion for sales stimulation. Three experiments are designed to test these hypotheses. Focusing on the integrative effect of promotional attributes allows researchers to have a holistic view of causally relevant conditions for designing an effective promotion. This study has important theoretical implications that can facilitate marketers’ understanding and predictions of deal recipients’ responses to promotions

A Competency Model for Judges

Throughout most modern and contemporary legal scholarship there appears an unbridgeable division between two dominant approaches to judicial decision making. Put succinctly, legal scholars argue that there exist either objective, foundational, ultimate groundings for legal theory and decisions or legal theory and practice inevitably follow a path to relativism and skepticism. This dissertation argues for a theory of evaluation grounded in the Pragmatic, practical ontology and epistemology. Grounding the theory in this fashion avoids the philosophical views of extreme objectivism and extreme subjectivism. In contrast to these conventional stances, which are rooted in philosophical dualism, the view argued for in this dissertation perceives the ontological and epistemological relationship between humans and their environment as inherently interconnected or relational. This philosophical relationship is characterized as intentional, perspectival, and dialectical and embodied. Consonant with the Pragmatic Ontology, the dissertation argues for a conception of rationality termed embodied reason. Unlike abstract versions of rationality, embodied reason is characterized by its concreteness, situatedness, and intersubjective validation. The theory clarifies the concept of legal reasoning and develops meta-theory underlining practical, expert based, holistic, narrative, argumentative, intuitive dimensions. Additionally, given the embodied and perspectival characteristic of judicial decision making the importance of individual differences, especially context-dependent, holistic thinking style is underlined

Conditional reasoning in autism spectrum disorder: activation and integration of knowledge and belief.

Reasoning from all knowledge and belief is an adaptive approach to thinking about the world. It has been robustly shown that conditional ‘if then’ reasoning with everyday content is influenced by the background knowledge an individual has available. If we are presented with the statement ‘if it rains, then John will get wet’ then we are told that it is raining and asked if John will get wet, we may consider a number of possibilities before answering the question; perhaps John has an umbrella or is sheltered from the rain. Hence, when engaged in conditional reasoning of this sort people typically draw on background knowledge to arrive at an informed response. People with autism tend not to process information in context. There is a wealth of evidence indicating that these individuals have a piecemeal rather than an integrative processing style. It was therefore hypothesised that adolescents with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) would be less influenced by background knowledge when engaged in conditional reasoning with everyday content. Adolescents with ASD showed a weak or absent effect of available background knowledge on reasoning outcomes compared to a typically developing control group. This finding was demonstrated in two separate conditional reasoning tasks. These results were not explained by a failure to generate background knowledge or by differences in the beliefs held by the two groups regarding problem content. Within the typical population a lack of contextualised reasoning was also found among participants with high scores on one particular autistic trait, attention to detail. The ability to integrate all relevant information during conditional reasoning was also found to be dependent on available working memory resources. These results extend the known domains which demonstrate a lack of contextualised processing in autism. They also show that for individuals with autism reasoning without regard for background knowledge stems from a failure to integrate information. The findings suggest that this failure is related to the cognitive demands of the task and the processing style of the individual