The role of bot squads in the political propaganda on Twitter

Social Media are nowadays the privileged channel for information spreading and news checking. Unexpectedly for most of the users, automated accounts, also known as social bots, contribute more and more to this process of news spreading. Using Twitter as a benchmark, we consider the traffic exchanged, over one month of observation, on a specific topic, namely the migration flux from Northern Africa to Italy. We measure the significant traffic of tweets only, by implementing an entropy-based null model that discounts the activity of users and the virality of tweets. Results show that social bots play a central role in the exchange of significant content. Indeed, not only the strongest hubs have a number of bots among their followers higher than expected, but furthermore a group of them, that can be assigned to the same political tendency, share a common set of bots as followers. The retwitting activity of such automated accounts amplifies the presence on the platform of the hubs' messages.Comment: Under Submissio

Finding polarised communities and tracking information diffusion on Twitter: The Irish Abortion Referendum

The analysis of social networks enables the understanding of social interactions, polarisation of ideas, and the spread of information and therefore plays an important role in society. We use Twitter data - as it is a popular venue for the expression of opinion and dissemination of information - to identify opposing sides of a debate and, importantly, to observe how information spreads between these groups in our current polarised climate. To achieve this, we collected over 688,000 Tweets from the Irish Abortion Referendum of 2018 to build a conversation network from users mentions with sentiment-based homophily. From this network, community detection methods allow us to isolate yes- or no-aligned supporters with high accuracy (90.9%). We supplement this by tracking how information cascades spread via over 31,000 retweet-cascades. We found that very little information spread between polarised communities. This provides a valuable methodology for extracting and studying information diffusion on large networks by isolating ideologically polarised groups and exploring the propagation of information within and between these groups.Comment: 44 pages, 4 appendices, 18 figure

Extracting significant signal of news consumption from social networks: the case of Twitter in Italian political elections

According to the Eurobarometer report about EU media use of May 2018, the number of European citizens who consult on-line social networks for accessing information is considerably increasing. In this work we analyze approximately $10^6$ tweets exchanged during the last Italian elections. By using an entropy-based null model discounting the activity of the users, we first identify potential political alliances within the group of verified accounts: if two verified users are retweeted more than expected by the non-verified ones, they are likely to be related. Then, we derive the users' affiliation to a coalition measuring the polarization of unverified accounts. Finally, we study the bipartite directed representation of the tweets and retweets network, in which tweets and users are collected on the two layers. Users with the highest out-degree identify the most popular ones, whereas highest out-degree posts are the most "viral". We identify significant content spreaders by statistically validating the connections that cannot be explained by users' tweeting activity and posts' virality by using an entropy-based null model as benchmark. The analysis of the directed network of validated retweets reveals signals of the alliances formed after the elections, highlighting commonalities of interests before the event of the national elections

The role of bot squads in the political propaganda on Twitter

Nowadays, Social Media are a privileged channel for news spreading, information exchange, and fact checking. Unexpectedly for many users, automated accounts, known as social bots, contribute more and more to this process of information diffusion. Using Twitter as a benchmark, we consider the traffic exchanged, over one month of observation, on the migration flux from Northern Africa to Italy. We measure the significant traffic of tweets only, by implementing an entropy-based null model that discounts the activity of users and the virality of tweets. Results show that social bots play a central role in the exchange of significant content. Indeed, not only the strongest hubs have a number of bots among their followers higher than expected, but furthermore a group of them, that can be assigned to the same political tendency, share a common set of bots as followers. The retweeting activity of such automated accounts amplifies the hubs’ messages

Emotions Trump Facts: The Role of Emotions in on Social Media: A Literature Review

Emotions are an inseparable part of how people use social media. While a more cognitive view on social media has initially dominated the research looking into areas such as knowledge sharing, the topic of emotions and their role on social media is gaining increasing interest. As is typical to an emerging field, there is no synthesized view on what has been discovered so far and - more importantly - what has not been. This paper provides an overview of research regarding expressing emotions on social media and their impact, and makes recommendations for future research in the area. Considering differentiated emotion instead of measuring positive or negative sentiment, drawing from theories on emotion, and distinguishing between sentiment and opinion could provide valuable insights in the field

Extracting significant signal of news consumption from social networks: the case of Twitter in Italian political elections

According to the Eurobarometer report about EU media use of May 2018, the number of European citizens who consult on-line social networks for accessing information is considerably increasing. In this work we analyse approximately 106 tweets exchanged during the last Italian elections held on March 4, 2018. Using an entropy-based null model discounting the activity of the users, we first identify potential political alliances within the group of verified accounts: if two verified users are retweeted more than expected by the non-verified ones, they are likely to be related. Then, we derive the users’ affiliation to a coalition measuring the polarisation of unverified accounts. Finally, we study the bipartite directed representation of the tweets and retweets network, in which tweets and users are collected on the two layers. Users with the highest out-degree identify the most popular ones, whereas highest out-degree posts are the most “viral”. We identify significant content spreaders with a procedure that allows to statistically validate the connections that cannot be explained by users’ tweeting activity and posts’ virality, using an entropy-based null model as benchmark. The analysis of the directed network of validated retweets reveals signals of the alliances formed after the elections, highlighting commonalities of interests before the event of the national elections

POISED: Spotting Twitter Spam Off the Beaten Paths

Cybercriminals have found in online social networks a propitious medium to spread spam and malicious content. Existing techniques for detecting spam include predicting the trustworthiness of accounts and analyzing the content of these messages. However, advanced attackers can still successfully evade these defenses. Online social networks bring people who have personal connections or share common interests to form communities. In this paper, we first show that users within a networked community share some topics of interest. Moreover, content shared on these social network tend to propagate according to the interests of people. Dissemination paths may emerge where some communities post similar messages, based on the interests of those communities. Spam and other malicious content, on the other hand, follow different spreading patterns. In this paper, we follow this insight and present POISED, a system that leverages the differences in propagation between benign and malicious messages on social networks to identify spam and other unwanted content. We test our system on a dataset of 1.3M tweets collected from 64K users, and we show that our approach is effective in detecting malicious messages, reaching 91% precision and 93% recall. We also show that POISED's detection is more comprehensive than previous systems, by comparing it to three state-of-the-art spam detection systems that have been proposed by the research community in the past. POISED significantly outperforms each of these systems. Moreover, through simulations, we show how POISED is effective in the early detection of spam messages and how it is resilient against two well-known adversarial machine learning attacks

Linking Epidemic Models and Self-exciting Processes for Online and Offline Event Diffusions

Temporal diffusion data, which comprises time-stamped events, is ubiquitous, ranging from information diffusing in online social media platforms to infectious diseases spreading in offline communities. Pressing problems, such as predicting the popularity of online information and containing epidemics, demand temporal diffusion models for understanding, modeling, and controlling diffusion dynamics. This thesis discusses diffusions of online information and epidemics by developing and connecting self-exciting processes and epidemic models. First, we propose a novel dual mixture self-exciting process for characterizing online information diffusions related to online items, such as videos or news articles. By observing that maximum likelihood estimates are separable in a Hawkes process, the model, consisting of a Borel mixture model and a kernel mixture model, jointly learns the unfolding of a heterogeneous set of cascades. When applied to cascades of the same online items, the model directly characterizes their spread dynamics and provides interpretable quantities, such as content virality and content influence decay, as well as methods for predicting the final content popularities. On two retweet cascade datasets, we show that our models capture the differences between online items at the granularity of items, publishers, and categories. Next, we propose novel ideal strategies to explore the limits of both testing and contact tracing strategies, which have been shown effective in some epidemics (e.g., SARS) but ineffective in some others (e.g., COVID-19). We then develop a superspreading random contact network that accounts for the superspreading effect of infectious diseases, where several infected cases result in most secondary infections. In simulations, we observe gaps between ideal and standard strategies by examining extensive sets of epidemic parameters, highlighting the need to explore intelligent strategies. We also present a classification of different diseases based on how containable they are under different strategies. Then, we bridge epidemic models and self-exciting processes with a novel generalized stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model with arbitrary recovery time distributions. We articulate the relationship between recovery time distributions, recovery hazard functions, and infection kernels of self-exciting processes. We also present methods for simulating, fitting, evaluating, and predicting the generalized process. On three large Twitter diffusion datasets, we show that the modeling performance of the infection kernels varies depending on the temporal structures of diffusions and user behavior, such as the likelihood of being bots. We further improve the prediction of popularity by combining two models identified as complementary in the goodness-of-fit tests. Last, we present evently, a tool for modeling online reshare cascades, particularly retweet cascades, using self-exciting processes. This tool fills in a gap between the practitioners of online social media analysis --- usually social, political, and communication scientists --- and the accessibility to tools capable of examining online discussions. It provides a comprehensive set of functionalities for processing raw data from Twitter public APIs, modeling the temporal dynamics of processed retweet cascades and characterizing online users with a wide range of diffusion measures. Overall, this thesis studies temporal diffusions of online information and epidemics by proposing novel epidemic models and self-exciting processes. It provides tools for predicting information popularities, characterizing online items, and classifying online item categories with state-of-the-art performances. It also contributes observations in applying testing and tracing strategies in containing epidemics. Lastly, evently facilitates temporal diffusion analysis for practitioners from various fields, such as social science and epidemiology

Fake news diffusion on digital channels: An analysis of attack strategies, responsibilities, and corporate responses

In recent years, the phenomenon of fake news has aroused a growing interest in the academic debate because of its capability to easily spread among digital channels, such as social media platforms, and reach and deceive an increasingly large target of digital users. In this scenario, fake news threatens the credibility of organizations, their products and services, the trust relationship between organizations and consumers, as well as the organizations internal community. Nowadays, organizations are subject to the risk of losing the control of their corporate communication strategies due to phenomena such as the spread of fake news. Hence, although in academic literature there is a growing interest about the impact of fake news, scholars agree that more research is needed to provide a better understanding of the fake news phenomenon. Indeed, hereto no study has focused on how fake news attacks the corporate reputation with reference to the different phases of the fake news life cycle. The aim of this PhD thesis is threefold: (1) to investigate how fake news, during its life cycle, attacks corporate reputation; (2) to identify the key actors involved in the stemming process of fake news and their role; (3) to identify the more effective response strategies of organizations threatened by fake news. To achieve the aim of this exploratory research, a mixed-method approach was adopted. In particular, a qualitative content analysis was conducted on a database of 454 fake news headlines; four longitudinal case studies were analyzed; a survey on a sample of Italian citizens was conducted to investigate their perception and the more effective response strategies of the organizations attacked by fake news. Findings of this research identify two types of borrowed credibility on which fake news leverages and two thematic clusters that characterize them. By crossing these dimensions, four different ideal types of fake news attack strategies emerged. Moreover, the results of this research highlight the weakness of the role of fact checkers, which are unable to access the filter bubbles in which fake news rapidly spreads – fact checkers and fake news branch out on two parallel channels, without crossing each other, and reaching different targets, by representing an ethical challenge for digital platforms such as social media. Finally, the findings of the survey show that it is a widespread and prevailing opinion between Italians that openness and transparency should be the key values of the response strategies. As a matter of fact, the clear answer from the survey respondents is that the best response strategy for the organization attacked by fake news is to be available in providing timely information

Facial re-enactment, speech synthesis and the rise of the Deepfake

Emergent technologies in the fields of audio speech synthesis and video facial manipulation have the potential to drastically impact our societal patterns of multimedia consumption. At a time when social media and internet culture is plagued by misinformation, propaganda and “fake news”, their latent misuse represents a possible looming threat to fragile systems of information sharing and social democratic discourse. It has thus become increasingly recognised in both academic and mainstream journalism that the ramifications of these tools must be examined to determine what they are and how their widespread availability can be managed. This research project seeks to examine four emerging software programs – Face2Face, FakeApp , Adobe VoCo and Lyrebird – that are designed to facilitate the synthesis of speech and manipulate facial features in videos. I will explore their positive industry applications and the potentially negative consequences of their release into the public domain. Consideration will be directed to how such consequences and risks can be ameliorated through detection, regulation and education. A final analysis of these three competing threads will then attempt to address whether the practical and commercial applications of these technologies are outweighed by the inherent unethical or illegal uses they engender, and if so; what we can do in response