8,969 research outputs found
Modelling Non-linear Crowd Dynamics in Bio-PEPA
Emergent phenomena occur due to the pattern of non-linear and distributed local interactions between the elements of a system over time. Surprisingly, agent based crowd models, in which the movement of each individual follows a limited set of simple rules, often re-produce quite closely the emergent behaviour of crowds that can be observed in reality. An example of such phenomena is the spontaneous self-organisation of drinking parties in the squares of cities in Spain, also known as "El Botellon" [20]. We revisit this case study providing an elegant stochastic process algebraic model in Bio-PEPA amenable to several forms of analyses, among which simulation and fluid flow analysis. We show that a fluid flow approximation, i.e. a deterministic reading of the average behaviour of the system, can provide an alternative and efficient way to study the same emergent behaviour as that explored in [20] where simulation was used instead. Besides empirical evidence, also an analytical justification is provided for the good correspondence found between simulation results and the fluid flow approximation
Temporal networks of face-to-face human interactions
The ever increasing adoption of mobile technologies and ubiquitous services
allows to sense human behavior at unprecedented levels of details and scale.
Wearable sensors are opening up a new window on human mobility and proximity at
the finest resolution of face-to-face proximity. As a consequence, empirical
data describing social and behavioral networks are acquiring a longitudinal
dimension that brings forth new challenges for analysis and modeling. Here we
review recent work on the representation and analysis of temporal networks of
face-to-face human proximity, based on large-scale datasets collected in the
context of the SocioPatterns collaboration. We show that the raw behavioral
data can be studied at various levels of coarse-graining, which turn out to be
complementary to one another, with each level exposing different features of
the underlying system. We briefly review a generative model of temporal contact
networks that reproduces some statistical observables. Then, we shift our focus
from surface statistical features to dynamical processes on empirical temporal
networks. We discuss how simple dynamical processes can be used as probes to
expose important features of the interaction patterns, such as burstiness and
causal constraints. We show that simulating dynamical processes on empirical
temporal networks can unveil differences between datasets that would otherwise
look statistically similar. Moreover, we argue that, due to the temporal
heterogeneity of human dynamics, in order to investigate the temporal
properties of spreading processes it may be necessary to abandon the notion of
wall-clock time in favour of an intrinsic notion of time for each individual
node, defined in terms of its activity level. We conclude highlighting several
open research questions raised by the nature of the data at hand.Comment: Chapter of the book "Temporal Networks", Springer, 2013. Series:
Understanding Complex Systems. Holme, Petter; Saram\"aki, Jari (Eds.
A combined process algebraic, agent and fluid flow approach to emergent crowd behaviour
Emergent phenomena occur due to the pattern of non-linear and distributed local interactions between the elements of a system over time. Surprisingly, agent based crowd models in which the movement of each individual follows a limited set of simple rules often re-produce quite closely the emergent behaviour of crowds that can be observed in reality. An example of such phenomena is the spontaneous self-organisation of drinking parties in the squares of cities in Spain, also known as "El Botellon" [22]. We revisit this case study providing an elegant stochastic process algebraic model in Bio-PEPA amenable to several forms of analyses among which simulation and fluid flow analysis. We show that a fluid flow approximation, i.e. a deterministic reading of the average behaviour of the system, can provide an alternative and efficient way to study the same emergent behaviour as that explored in [22] where simulation was used instead. Besides empirical evidence also an analytical justification is provided for the good correspondence found between simulation results and the fluid flow approximation. Scalability features of the fluid flow approach may make it particularly useful when studying models of more complex city topologies with very large populations
Stock Market Participation, Portfolio Choice and Pensions over the Life-cycle
In this paper we present a calibrated life-cycle model is able to simultaneously match asset allocations and stock market participation profiles over the life-cycle. The inclusion of per period fixed costs and a public pension scheme eradicates the need to assume heterogeneity in preferences, or implausible parameter values, in order to explain observed patterns. We find a per period fixed cost of less than two percent of the permanent component of annual labour income can explain the limited stock marker participation. More generous public pensions are seen to crowd out private savings and significantly reduce the estimates of these fixed costs. This is the first time that concurrent matching of participation and shares has been achieved within the standard preference framework
The minority game: An economics perspective
This paper gives a critical account of the minority game literature. The
minority game is a simple congestion game: players need to choose between two
options, and those who have selected the option chosen by the minority win. The
learning model proposed in this literature seems to differ markedly from the
learning models commonly used in economics. We relate the learning model from
the minority game literature to standard game-theoretic learning models, and
show that in fact it shares many features with these models. However, the
predictions of the learning model differ considerably from the predictions of
most other learning models. We discuss the main predictions of the learning
model proposed in the minority game literature, and compare these to
experimental findings on congestion games.Comment: 30 pages, 4 figure
Reconciling long-term cultural diversity and short-term collective social behavior
An outstanding open problem is whether collective social phenomena occurring
over short timescales can systematically reduce cultural heterogeneity in the
long run, and whether offline and online human interactions contribute
differently to the process. Theoretical models suggest that short-term
collective behavior and long-term cultural diversity are mutually excluding,
since they require very different levels of social influence. The latter
jointly depends on two factors: the topology of the underlying social network
and the overlap between individuals in multidimensional cultural space.
However, while the empirical properties of social networks are well understood,
little is known about the large-scale organization of real societies in
cultural space, so that random input specifications are necessarily used in
models. Here we use a large dataset to perform a high-dimensional analysis of
the scientific beliefs of thousands of Europeans. We find that inter-opinion
correlations determine a nontrivial ultrametric hierarchy of individuals in
cultural space, a result unaccessible to one-dimensional analyses and in
striking contrast with random assumptions. When empirical data are used as
inputs in models, we find that ultrametricity has strong and counterintuitive
effects, especially in the extreme case of long-range online-like interactions
bypassing social ties. On short time-scales, it strongly facilitates a
symmetry-breaking phase transition triggering coordinated social behavior. On
long time-scales, it severely suppresses cultural convergence by restricting it
within disjoint groups. We therefore find that, remarkably, the empirical
distribution of individuals in cultural space appears to optimize the
coexistence of short-term collective behavior and long-term cultural diversity,
which can be realized simultaneously for the same moderate level of mutual
influence
The Minority Game: An Economics Perspective
This paper gives a critical account of the minority game literature. The minority game is a simple congestion game: players need to choose between two options, and those who have selected the option chosen by the minority win. The learning model proposed in this literature seems to differ markedly from the learning models commonly used in economics. We relate the learning model from the minority game literature to standard game-theoretic learning models, and show that in fact it shares many features with these models. However, the predictions of the learning model differ considerably from the predictions of most other learning models. We discuss the main predictions of the learning model proposed in the minority game literature, and compare these to experimental findings on congestion games.Learning;congestion games;experiments.
Integrated design of transport infrastructure and public spaces considering human behavior: A review of state-of-the-art methods and tools
In order to achieve holistic urban plans incorporating transport infrastructure, public space and the behavior of people in these spaces, integration of urban design and computer modeling is a promising way to provide both qualitative and quantitative support to decision-makers. This paper describes a systematic literature review following a four-part framework. Firstly, to understand the relationship of elements of transport, spaces, and humans, we review policy and urban design strategies for promoting positive interactions. Secondly, we present an overview of the integration methods and strategies used in urban design and policy discourses. Afterward, metrics and approaches for evaluating the effectiveness of integrated plan alternatives are reviewed. Finally, this paper gives a review of state-of-the-art tools with a focus on seven computer simulation paradigms. This article explores mechanisms underlying the complex system of transport, spaces, and humans from a multidisciplinary perspective to provide an integrated toolkit for designers, planners, modelers and decision-makers with the current methods and their challenges
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