Changes of Wilkins Ice Shelf over the past 15 years and inferences on its stability

International audienceThe Wilkins Ice Shelf is situated along the Antarctic Peninsula, a region where seven ice shelves disintegrated between 1995 and 2002. This study combines various remote sensing data sets over Wilkins Ice Shelf, with the aim to detect its present and near-past dynamics as well as recent changes. The survey includes structural mapping, ERS-1/2 SAR interferometry and analysis of ICESat GLAS ice surface elevation data. Ice front retreat rates from 1986 to 2008 showed distinct break-up events, including a recent event in February 2008, where 40% of a bonding of the ice shelf to two islands broke off. Surface elevations have been used to study tidal effects, crack formation and to estimate the ice thickness over the floating area. The interferometric velocities cover the south-eastern part of the ice shelf as well as major tributaries and reveal maximum inflow speeds of up to 330 ma?1. We show that drainage of melt ponds into crevasses were of no relevance for the break-up at Wilkins Ice Shelf. Buoyancy forces caused the rift formation before the break-up of February 2008. Additionally, the evolution of failure zones of the order of tenths of kilometres in length in pre-conditioned locations at ice rises could be shown. Analysis of satellite image time series revealed that evolution and coalescence of failure zones coincides with major break-up events and is assumed to be triggered by them. Investigation of the current (April 2008) situation shows that about 38% at the northern Wilkins Ice Shelf is directly endangered, however, there is no visible signature that the remaining 8000 km2 are at risk

Automatically extracted Antarctic coastline using remotely-sensed data: an update

The temporal and spatial variability of the Antarctic coastline is a clear indicator of change in extent and mass balance of ice sheets and shelves. In this study, the Canny edge detector was utilized to automatically extract high-resolution information of the Antarctic coastline for 2005, 2010, and 2017, based on optical and microwave satellite data. In order to improve the accuracy of the extracted coastlines, we developed the Canny algorithm by automatically calculating the local low and high thresholds via the intensity histogram of each image to derive thresholds to distinguish ice sheet from water. A visual comparison between extracted coastlines and mosaics from remote sensing images shows good agreement. In addition, comparing manually extracted coastline, based on prior knowledge, the accuracy of planimetric position of automated extraction is better than two pixels of Landsat images (30 m resolution). Our study shows that the percentage of deviation (7 km2 (2005) to 1.3537 × 107 km2 (2010) and 1.3657 × 107 km2 (2017). We have found that the decline of the Antarctic area between 2005 and 2010 is related to the breakup of some individual ice shelves, mainly in the Antarctic Peninsula and off East Antarctica. We present a detailed analysis of the temporal and spatial change of coastline and area change for the six ice shelves that exhibited the largest change in the last decade. The largest area change (a loss of 4836 km2) occurred at the Wilkins Ice Shelf between 2005 and 2010

Finite Element Simulation of Frost Wedging in Ice Shelves

Break-up events in ice shelves have been studied extensively during the last years. One popular assumption links disintegration events to surface melting of the ice shelf in conjunction with growing melt-water ponds, leading to hydro-fracture. As this explanation only holds during warm seasons [1], the possibility of frost wedging as forcing mechanism for autumn and winter break-up events is considered. Frost wedging can only occur if a closed ice lid seals the water inside the crack. Hence, the present study of frost wedging in a single crack uses ice lid thicknesses to evaluate the additional pressure on the crack faces. The investigation of the resulting stress intensity factor as a measure of crack criticality follows consequently. The results show that freezing water inside a crack can result in unstable crack growth of an initially stable water filled crack

Short- and long-term variability of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets

The variability of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets occurs on various timescales and is important for projections of sea level rise; however, there are substantial uncertainties concerning future ice-sheet mass changes. In this Review, we explore the degree to which short-term fluctuations and extreme glaciological events reflect the ice sheets’ long-term evolution and response to ongoing climate change. Short-term (decadal or shorter) variations in atmospheric or oceanic conditions can trigger amplifying feedbacks that increase the sensitivity of ice sheets to climate change. For example, variability in ocean-induced and atmosphere-induced melting can trigger ice thinning, retreat and/or collapse of ice shelves, grounding-line retreat, and ice flow acceleration. The Antarctic Ice Sheet is especially prone to increased melting and ice sheet collapse from warm ocean currents, which could be accentuated with increased climate variability. In Greenland both high and low melt anomalies have been observed since 2012, highlighting the influence of increased interannual climate variability on extreme glaciological events and ice sheet evolution. Failing to adequately account for such variability can result in biased projections of multi-decadal ice mass loss. Therefore, future research should aim to improve climate and ocean observations and models, and develop sophisticated ice sheet models that are directly constrained by observational records and can capture ice dynamical changes across various timescales

Fracture-induced softening for large-scale ice dynamics

Floating ice shelves can exert a retentive and hence stabilizing force onto the inland ice sheet of Antarctica. However, this effect has been observed to diminish by the dynamic effects of fracture processes within the protective ice shelves, leading to accelerated ice flow and hence to a sea-level contribution. In order to account for the macroscopic effect of fracture processes on large-scale viscous ice dynamics (i.e., ice-shelf scale) we apply a continuum representation of fractures and related fracture growth into the prognostic Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) and compare the results to observations. To this end we introduce a higher order accuracy advection scheme for the transport of the two-dimensional fracture density across the regular computational grid. Dynamic coupling of fractures and ice flow is attained by a reduction of effective ice viscosity proportional to the inferred fracture density. This formulation implies the possibility of non-linear threshold behavior due to self-amplified fracturing in shear regions triggered by small variations in the fracture-initiation threshold. As a result of prognostic flow simulations, sharp across-flow velocity gradients appear in fracture-weakened regions. These modeled gradients compare well in magnitude and location with those in observed flow patterns. This model framework is in principle expandable to grounded ice streams and provides simple means of investigating climate-induced effects on fracturing (e.g., hydro fracturing) and hence on the ice flow. It further constitutes a physically sound basis for an enhanced fracture-based calving parameterization

Long-term observations of terminus position change, structural glaciology and velocity at Ninnis Glacier, George V Land, East Antarctica (1963-2021)

Over the last four decades, some major East Antarctic outlet glaciers have undergone rates of retreat, thinning and acceleration in response to ocean-climatic forcing. However, some major East Antarctic outlet glaciers remain unstudied in the recent past. Ninnis Glacier is one East Antarctic outlet glacier that is potentially vulnerable to future ocean-climate change and requires monitoring. This thesis quantifies and analyses long-term (1963-2021) changes in terminus position, structural glaciology and velocity at Ninnis Glacier. The results of this study show that Ninnis underwent three major calving events (in 1972-1974, 1998 and 2018), characterised by a 20–25-year periodicity and indicative of a naturally occurring cycle. Each respective calving event created a large-scale tabular iceberg and formed a new terminus position at similar locations up-ice relative to Ninnis’ 1992 grounding line position. The major calving events in 1998 and 2018 were controlled by the development of a central rift system that appears in the same location on Ninnis’ tongue, reinforcing the notion of a predictable calving cycle. Ice flow velocity trends before the 2018 calving event (2017-2018) revealed no discernible change in velocity immediately up-ice (+0.2 %) and down-ice (>0 %) of the 1992 grounding line, suggesting that rifting took place within a ‘passive’ sector of Ninnis’ ice tongue. Between 2018 and 2021, Ninnis underwent a pervasive deceleration up-ice (-2.1 %) and down-ice (-1.4 %) of the 1992 grounding line and on the distal ice tongue (-18.7 %). This indicated that the 2018 calving event did not result in the loss of dynamically important ice. Although Ninnis has previously been deemed a sector at risk of retreat, it is concluded that Ninnis is not currently undergoing Marine Ice Sheet Instability and is not currently sensitive to external forcing. This is consistent with low basal melt rates, negligible grounding line retreat and low thermal forcing temperatures in the coastal waters observed at Ninnis