EVALUATION OF THE ADAPTIVE CAPACITY OF MOLE SALAMANDERS (AMBYSTOMATIDAE) TO A CHANGING CLIMATE IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS

The primary goal of my dissertation was to investigate the adaptive capacity of mole salamanders in western Massachusetts, specifically marbled salamanders (Ambystoma opacum), to future changes in climate. This involved the analysis of two existing datasets including i) a nearly decade-long photograph capture-recapture dataset (first described by Gamble et al. 2009) and ii) a landscape genetics dataset (first described by Whitely et al. 2014). My dissertation also included two chapters focused on computer simulations to better understand the behavior and inferences from the statistical models fit to the empirical datasets I modeled and the effects of error in the data on model parameter estimates. Results of my research provide new insights regarding the adaptive capacity of A. opacum populations to future environmental change. First, genetic differentiation of A. opacum was found to be driven by roads and landscape curvature in our study area which has resulted in population clustering (K=3; Whiteley, McGarigal, & Schwartz, 2014). This suggests that A. opacum may have difficulty tracking future climate change if movement, dispersal and ultimately gene flow are restricted due to both anthropogenic and natural topographic features of the landscape. Second, multi-state survival model estimates suggested that climate change could directly reduce A. opacum survival through increases in summer precipitation amounts and indirectly reduce A. opacum survival through increases in the length of the breeding interval due to increases in fall temperature and decreases in precipitation as mortality rates at the vernal pool. Lastly, no evidence was found that individual A. opacum could pick up on environmental cues that breeding conditions would be “riskier” in a given year due to a longer breeding interval and “skip” breeding at higher rates (particularly females), to buffer the population from such environmental conditions

Driver-pressure-impact and response-recovery chains in European rivers: observed and predicted effects on BQEs

The report presented in the following is part of the outcome of WISER’s river Workpackage WP5.1 and as such part of the module on aquatic ecosystem management and restoration. The ultimate goal of WP5.1 is to provide guidance on best practice restoration and management to the practitioners in River Basin Management. Therefore, a series of analyses was undertaken, each of which used a part of the WP5.1 database in order to track two major pathways of biological response: 1) the response of riverine biota to environmental pressures (degradation) and 2) the response of biota to the reduction of these impacts (restoration). This report attempts to provide empirical evidence on the environment-biota relationships for both pathways

ASSESSING THE JOINT INFLUENCE OF ECOLOGICAL AND SOCIOECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF INCREASES IN THE BUILT-ENVIRONMENT: A STUDY OF TRENDS IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

This paper advances an empirical model assessing how, over both time and space, changes in land-use respond to changing economic and ecological conditions. Focusing on Central North Carolina, a region that has undergone extensive changes in forest cover and agricultural lands over the past two decades, landscape dynamics are modeled by exploiting a spatial database that links several satellite images spanning the years 1975-1999 to a suite of socioeconomic, institutional and GIS-created explanatory variables.Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use,

Avian Communities and Landscape Characteristics of Golf Courses Within the Beaufort County Sea Island Complex

The native breeding bird community of Beaufort County, South Carolina is experiencing landscape alteration in several forms. A prevalent human land use in the coastal zone is golf course development. This study explored the relationship between golf course land cover (n=23) and avian community metrics. Each study site consisted of the in-play area of the golf course, surrounded by a 400 m zone. Landscape metrics were calculated for each study site, and served as independent variables. The dependent variables were the following avian community metrics: species richness, neotropical migrant richness, abundance, diversity, evenness, and mean Partners in Flight (PIF) score. Stepwise model selection produced multiple linear regression models for each avian community metric. Significant variables in the model were interpreted for ecological meaning. Avian species richness, abundance and diversity increased with the area of the landscape, while the interaction of interspersion/juxtaposition and patch richness had varying but significant effects on diversity, species richness and neotropical migrant richness. Mean patch fractal dimension of residential areas positively affected species richness and evenness, while mean patch fractal dimension of turf was opposite in relation to the mean shape index of turf in the evenness model. Evenness showed unique responses to metrics calculated for forested wetland and mixed upland forest. These results yield insight into avian community response to golf course landscape characteristics, and may aid in future management decisions in the region

Spatial heterogeneity in forested landscapes: an examination of forest fragmentation and suburban sprawl in the Florida Parishes of Louisiana

Forest fragmentation refers to the spatial distribution of forests in a landscape. Forest fragmentation drastically alters forest composition, habitat quality, genetic flow and many other ecological processes associated with forested ecosystems. This research examined spatial patterns and rates of forest fragmentation during the 1991-2001 period for a region in southeast Louisiana known as the Florida Parishes. Following classification of 1991 and 2001 Landsat data into forest and non-forest classes, spatial patterns were examined using Fragstats 3.3 spatial analysis software. Spatial statistics such as patch density, perimeter to area ratios, core area indices, edge density, and various landscape continuity indices were used to assess patterns and trends of forest fragmentation in landscapes throughout the region. A variety of patch, core and edge metrics indicated increasing forest fragmentation in a majority of the landscapes examined. Values of various landscape continuity indices were also found to suggest significant increases in forest fragmentation in a majority of landscapes. The correlation of various forest fragmentation metrics with metrics associated with suburban sprawl was shown to be relatively weak by low R2 values. These findings may suggest that suburban sprawl was not the only factor affecting the spatial arrangement of forests in the Florida Parishes during the study period. The results of this research facilitate an increased understanding of the current trends of forest land-cover fragmentation in the Florida Parishes and the potential influences of these trends on related ecological processes

Introducing GEOBIA to landscape imageability assessment: a multi-temporal case study of the nature reserve “Kózki”, Poland

Geographic object-based image analysis (GEOBIA) is a primary remote sensing tool utilized in land-cover mapping and change detection. Land-cover patches are the primary data source for landscape metrics and ecological indicator calculations; however, their application to visual landscape character (VLC) indicators was little investigated to date. To bridge the knowledge gap between GEOBIA and VLC, this paper puts forward the theoretical concept of using viewpoint as a landscape imageability indicator into the practice of a multi-temporal land-cover case study and explains how to interpret the indicator. The study extends the application of GEOBIA to visual landscape indicator calculations. In doing so, eight different remote sensing imageries are the object of GEOBIA, starting from a historical aerial photograph (1957) and CORONA declassified scene (1965) to contemporary (2018) UAV-delivered imagery. The multi-temporal GEOBIA-delivered land-cover patches are utilized to find the minimal isovist set of viewpoints and to calculate three imageability indicators: the number, density, and spacing of viewpoints. The calculated indicator values, viewpoint rank, and spatial arrangements allow us to describe the scale, direction, rate, and reasons for VLC changes over the analyzed 60 years of landscape evolution. We found that the case study nature reserve (“Kózki”, Poland) landscape imageability transformed from visually impressive openness to imageability due to the impression of several landscape rooms enclosed by forest walls. Our results provide proof that the number, rank, and spatial arrangement of viewpoints constitute landscape imageability measured with the proposed indicators. Discussing the method’s technical limitations, we believe that our findings contribute to a better understanding of land-cover change impact on visual landscape structure dynamics and further VLC indicator development

Assessing the Effectiveness of Tradable Landuse Rights for Biodiversity Conservation: An Application to Canada's Boreal Mixedwood Forest

Ecological reserve networks are an important strategy for conserving biodiversity. One approach to selecting reserves is to use optimization algorithms that maximize an ecological objective function subject to a total reserve area constraint. Under this approach, economic factors such as potential land values and tenure arrangements are often ignored. Tradable landuse rights are proposed as an alternative economic mechanism for selecting reserves. Under this approach economic considerations determine the spatial distribution of development and reserves are allocated to sites with the lowest development value, minimizing the cost of the reserve network. The configuration of the reserve network as well as the biodiversity outcome is determined as a residual. However cost savings can be used to increase the total amount of area in reserve and improve biodiversity outcomes. The appropriateness of this approach for regional planning is discussed in light of key uncertainties associated with biodiversity protection. A comparison of biodiversity outcomes and costs under ecological versus economic approaches is undertaken for the Boreal Forest Natural Region of Alberta, Canada. We find a significant increase in total area protected and an increase in species representation under the TLR approach.Biodiversity conservation, Reserve design, Tradable landuse rights

Anthropogenic activities contribute to changes in forest cover in the shale oil and gas region of Northeastern British Columbia

The boreal forest ecosystems have been changing due to varying levels of anthropogenic land use processes such as logging, oil and gas activities, and agriculture. However, the cumulative impacts of these processes are likely to lead to a lasting degradation of the boreal forest ecosystem; and thus, contributing to environmental change. In this study, methods from Landscape Ecology, GIS, and remote sensing were used to process Landsat images and spatial data for shale gas infrastructure. These datasets and methods were used for measuring and assessing the forest change pattern in a study area in northeastern British Columbia (BC). The results of the study show that gross loss (5.98%) of coniferous forest cover in the timber harvest land base (THLB) is higher than the rate of gross loss (3.22%) of the coniferous forest cover in the area outside the THLB. However, the rate of net loss in coniferous forest cover is smaller in the THLB than that of outside the THLB (net loss THLB=0.6%; net loss non-THLB=1.7%). These dynamics in forest cover suggest that it is more likely for forest cover to regenerate much faster in the THLB than outside the THLB. The quantity of forest cover loss (0.163%) from shale oil and gas well pads development is more than the amount of forest loss from shale oil and gas access roads (0.017%) and pipeline development (0.057%). A higher amount of forest fragmentation is associated with periods and locations that have a high amount of anthropogenic-induced land classes in the landscape. These results of the study could serve as the information for modelling land change and fragmentation in the future. The finding from this study could assist land managers in the allocation of land uses across space as well as the formulation of effective and efficient policy frameworks and management initiatives