Confidence: Its role in dependability cases for risk assessment

Society is increasingly requiring quantitative assessment of risk and associated dependability cases. Informally, a dependability case comprises some reasoning, based on assumptions and evidence, that supports a dependability claim at a particular level of confidence. In this paper we argue that a quantitative assessment of claim confidence is necessary for proper assessment of risk. We discuss the way in which confidence depends upon uncertainty about the underpinnings of the dependability case (truth of assumptions, correctness of reasoning, strength of evidence), and propose that probability is the appropriate measure of uncertainty. We discuss some of the obstacles to quantitative assessment of confidence (issues of composability of subsystem claims; of the multi-dimensional, multi-attribute nature of dependability claims; of the difficult role played by dependence between different kinds of evidence, assumptions, etc). We show that, even in simple cases, the confidence in a claim arising from a dependability case can be surprisingly low

Application of Layers of Protection Analysis (LOPA) for subsea production systems - A risk based model for determination of integrity levels in a global perspective

Depletion of onshore and shallow water reserves, in combination with new subsea technology, has made the petroleum industry advance into deeper water. However, new technology also brings new risks. Since most widely accepted standards and regulations are not directly aimed for subsea systems, new methods have to be developed. By developing a LOPA-model, which can be used specifically for subsea context, this thesis intends to be a part of filling that gap. The models main objective is to evaluate subsea production system risk and to determine the appropriate safety Integrity level (SIL) for all present independent protection layers. The method is semi-quantitative in nature, which means that the model output is based on a combination of generic statistical data, expert judgement and logical reasoning. According to the model validation, the result seems to be credible due to what is economically and technically feasible. For example, when a single satellite well subsea system was evaluated it ended up with SIL3 requirements for the “isolation of well function” and lower SIL requirements for other less critical safety functions

Rigorously assessing software reliability and safety

This paper summarises the state of the art in the assessment of software reliability and safety ("dependability"), and describes some promising developments. A sound demonstration of very high dependability is still impossible before operation of the software; but research is finding ways to make rigorous assessment increasingly feasible. While refined mathematical techniques cannot take the place of factual knowledge, they can allow the decision-maker to draw more accurate conclusions from the knowledge that is available

CBR and MBR techniques: review for an application in the emergencies domain

The purpose of this document is to provide an in-depth analysis of current reasoning engine practice and the integration strategies of Case Based Reasoning and Model Based Reasoning that will be used in the design and development of the RIMSAT system. RIMSAT (Remote Intelligent Management Support and Training) is a European Commission funded project designed to: a.. Provide an innovative, 'intelligent', knowledge based solution aimed at improving the quality of critical decisions b.. Enhance the competencies and responsiveness of individuals and organisations involved in highly complex, safety critical incidents - irrespective of their location. In other words, RIMSAT aims to design and implement a decision support system that using Case Base Reasoning as well as Model Base Reasoning technology is applied in the management of emergency situations. This document is part of a deliverable for RIMSAT project, and although it has been done in close contact with the requirements of the project, it provides an overview wide enough for providing a state of the art in integration strategies between CBR and MBR technologies.Postprint (published version

An Assurance Framework for Independent Co-assurance of Safety and Security

Integrated safety and security assurance for complex systems is difficult for many technical and socio-technical reasons such as mismatched processes, inadequate information, differing use of language and philosophies, etc.. Many co-assurance techniques rely on disregarding some of these challenges in order to present a unified methodology. Even with this simplification, no methodology has been widely adopted primarily because this approach is unrealistic when met with the complexity of real-world system development. This paper presents an alternate approach by providing a Safety-Security Assurance Framework (SSAF) based on a core set of assurance principles. This is done so that safety and security can be co-assured independently, as opposed to unified co-assurance which has been shown to have significant drawbacks. This also allows for separate processes and expertise from practitioners in each domain. With this structure, the focus is shifted from simplified unification to integration through exchanging the correct information at the right time using synchronisation activities

Secure Cloud-Edge Deployments, with Trust

Assessing the security level of IoT applications to be deployed to heterogeneous Cloud-Edge infrastructures operated by different providers is a non-trivial task. In this article, we present a methodology that permits to express security requirements for IoT applications, as well as infrastructure security capabilities, in a simple and declarative manner, and to automatically obtain an explainable assessment of the security level of the possible application deployments. The methodology also considers the impact of trust relations among different stakeholders using or managing Cloud-Edge infrastructures. A lifelike example is used to showcase the prototyped implementation of the methodology