The decision tree approach for the choice of freight transport mode : the shippers’ perspective in terms of seaport hinterland connections

The project is financed within the framework of the program of the Minister of Science and Higher Education under the name "Regional Excellence Initiative" in the years 2019 - 2022; project number 001/RID/2018/19; the amount of financing PLN 10,684,000.00Purpose: Current research in the area of transport decisions indicates that the key factors decisive for the mode choice are the cost and the time of transport. The complexity of behaviours and preferences of cargo shippers as well as the diversity of supply chain configurations, along with unavailability of an appropriate dataset hinder reliable forecasting the demand for transport and planning its development by means of quantitative methods. The aim of this article is to identify the factors that affect the decisions on mode choice by cargo shippers, based on data obtained by means of a qualitative method. Design/Methodology/Approach: The decision tree methodology was used in the analysis of the research study. To analyse the decision tree on the basis of C4.5. algorithm, the authors applied the J48 module of the WEKA 3.8.4. software. Findings: The research has shown that the major attributes in selecting transport modes by cargo shippers, taking into account access to three modes of transport to the seaports hinterland, are consignment size and time pressure, then owning or having access to barge terminals by cargo shippers, and the annual volume of cargoes generated by them. Practical Implications: The results of the analysis can be useful for managers of supply chain making decisions regarding the choice of transport route. Originality/Value: The developed decision tree model provides cargo shippers with a possibility of choosing three transport modes to carry cargoes to/from the seaports: road, rail, and inland shipping, which constitutes supplementation and expansion of the studies completed so far, which usually took into account only rail and road transport.peer-reviewe

A nested recursive logit model for route choice analysis

We propose a route choice model that relaxes the independence from irrelevant alternatives property of the logit model by allowing scale parameters to be link specific. Similar to the the recursive logit (RL) model proposed by Fosgerau et al. (2013), the choice of path is modelled as a sequence of link choices and the model does not require any sampling of choice sets. Furthermore, the model can be consistently estimated and efficiently used for prediction. A key challenge lies in the computation of the value functions, i.e. the expected maximum utility from any position in the network to a destination. The value functions are the solution to a system of non-linear equations. We propose an iterative method with dynamic accuracy that allows to efficiently solve these systems. We report estimation results and a cross-validation study for a real network. The results show that the NRL model yields sensible parameter estimates and the fit is significantly better than the RL model. Moreover, the NRL model outperforms the RL model in terms of prediction

Dynamic user equilibrium in public transport networks with passenger congestion and hyperpaths

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Heterogeneous urban traffic data and their integration through kernel-based interpolation

This paper presents collection and analysis of heterogeneous urban traffic data, and integration of them through a kernel-based approach. The recent development in sensing and information technology opens up opportunities for researching the use of this vast amount of new urban traffic data. In this paper, the data fusion algorithm is developed by using a kernel based interpolation approach. Our objective is to reconstruct the underlying urban traffic pattern with fine spatial and temporal granularity through processing and integrating data from different sources. The fusion algorithm can work with data collected in different space time resolution, with different level of accuracy, and from different kinds of sensors. The properties and performance of the fusion algorithm is evaluated by using a virtual test-bed produced by VISSIM microscopic simulation. The methodology is demonstrated through a real-world application in Central London. This paper contributes to analysis and management of urban transport facilities