Predicting Software Defects Based on Cognitive Error Theories

As the primary cause of software defects, human error is the key to understanding and perhaps to predicting and preventing software defects. However, little research has been done to forecast software defects based on defects' cognitive nature. This paper proposes an idea for predicting software defects by applying the current scientific understanding of human error mechanisms. This new prediction method is based on the main causal mechanism underlying software defects: an error-prone scenario triggers a sequence of human error modes. Preliminary evidence for supporting this idea is presented

The scientific basis for prediction research

Copyright @ 2012 ACMIn recent years there has been a huge growth in using statistical and machine learning methods to find useful prediction systems for software engineers. Of particular interest is predicting project effort and duration and defect behaviour. Unfortunately though results are often promising no single technique dominates and there are clearly complex interactions between technique, training methods and the problem domain. Since we lack deep theory our research is of necessity experimental. Minimally, as scientists, we need reproducible studies. We also need comparable studies. I will show through a meta-analysis of many primary studies that we are not presently in that situation and so the scientific basis for our collective research remains in doubt. By way of remedy I will argue that we need to address these issues of reporting protocols and expertise plus ensure blind analysis is routine

Evaluating prediction systems in software project estimation

This is the Pre-print version of the Article - Copyright @ 2012 ElsevierContext: Software engineering has a problem in that when we empirically evaluate competing prediction systems we obtain conflicting results. Objective: To reduce the inconsistency amongst validation study results and provide a more formal foundation to interpret results with a particular focus on continuous prediction systems. Method: A new framework is proposed for evaluating competing prediction systems based upon (1) an unbiased statistic, Standardised Accuracy, (2) testing the result likelihood relative to the baseline technique of random ‘predictions’, that is guessing, and (3) calculation of effect sizes. Results: Previously published empirical evaluations of prediction systems are re-examined and the original conclusions shown to be unsafe. Additionally, even the strongest results are shown to have no more than a medium effect size relative to random guessing. Conclusions: Biased accuracy statistics such as MMRE are deprecated. By contrast this new empirical validation framework leads to meaningful results. Such steps will assist in performing future meta-analyses and in providing more robust and usable recommendations to practitioners.Martin Shepperd was supported by the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) under Grant EP/H050329

Development of the Integrated Model of the Automotive Product Quality Assessment

Issues on building an integrated model of the automotive product quality assessment are studied herein basing on widely applicable methods and models of the quality assessment. A conceptual model of the automotive product quality system meeting customer requirements has been developed. Typical characteristics of modern industrial production are an increase in the production dynamism that determines the product properties; a continuous increase in the volume of information required for decision-making, an increased role of knowledge and high technologies implementing absolutely new scientific and technical ideas. To solve the problem of increasing the automotive product quality, a conceptual structural and hierarchical model is offered to ensure its quality as a closed system with feedback between the regulatory, manufacturing, and information modules, responsible for formation of the product quality at all stages of its life cycle. The three module model of the system of the industrial product quality assurance is considered to be universal and to give the opportunity to explore processes of any complexity while solving theoretical and practical problems of the quality assessment and prediction for products for various purposes, including automotive