Probabilistic Modeling of Rumour Stance and Popularity in Social Media

Social media tends to be rife with rumours when new reports are released piecemeal during breaking news events. One can mine multiple reactions expressed by social media users in those situations, exploring users’ stance towards rumours, ultimately enabling the flagging of highly disputed rumours as being potentially false. Moreover, rumours in social media exhibit complex temporal patterns. Some rumours are discussed with an increasing number of tweets per unit of time whereas other rumours fail to gain ground. This thesis develops probabilistic models of rumours in social media driven by two applications: rumour stance classification and modeling temporal dynamics of rumours. Rumour stance classification is the task of classifying the stance expressed in an individual tweet towards a rumour. Modeling temporal dynamics of rumours is an application where rumour prevalence is modeled over time. Both applications provide insights into how a rumour attracts attention from the social media community. These can assist journalists with their work on rumour tracking and debunking, and can be used in downstream applications such as systems for rumour veracity classification. In this thesis, we develop models based on probabilistic approaches. We motivate Gaussian processes and point processes as appropriate tools and show how features not considered in previous work can be included. We show that for both applications, transfer learning approaches are successful, supporting the hypothesis that there is a common underlying signal across different rumours. We furthermore introduce novel machine learning techniques which have the potential to be used in other applications: convolution kernels for streams of text over continuous time and a sequence classification algorithm based on point processes

Hawkes processes for continuous time sequence classification : an application to rumour stance classification in Twitter

Classification of temporal textual data sequences is a common task in various domains such as social media and the Web. In this paper we propose to use Hawkes Processes for classifying sequences of temporal textual data, which exploit both temporal and textual information. Our experiments on rumour stance classification on four Twitter datasets show the importance of using the temporal information of tweets along with the textual content

Stance classification in rumours as a sequential task exploiting the tree structure of social media conversations

Rumour stance classification, the task that determines if each tweet in a collection discussing a rumour is supporting, denying, questioning or simply commenting on the rumour, has been attracting substantial interest. Here we introduce a novel approach that makes use of the sequence of transitions observed in tree-structured conversation threads in Twitter. The conversation threads are formed by harvesting users’ replies to one another, which results in a nested tree-like structure. Previous work addressing the stance classification task has treated each tweet as a separate unit. Here we analyse tweets by virtue of their position in a sequence and test two sequential classifiers, Linear-Chain CRF and Tree CRF, each of which makes different assumptions about the conversational structure. We experiment with eight Twitter datasets, collected during breaking news, and show that exploiting the sequential structure of Twitter conversations achieves significant improvements over the non-sequential methods. Our work is the first to model Twitter conversations as a tree structure in this manner, introducing a novel way of tackling NLP tasks on Twitter conversations

Toward Automatic Fake News Classification

The interaction of technology with humans have many adverse effects. The rapid growth and outreach of the social media and the Web have led to the dissemination of questionable and untrusted content among a wider audience, which has negatively influenced their lives and judgment. Different election campaigns around the world highlighted how \u27\u27fake news\u27\u27 - misinformation that looks genuine - can be targeted towards specific communities to manipulate and confuse them. Ever since, automatic fake news detection has gained widespread attention from the scientific community. As a result, many research studies have been conducted to tackle the detection and spreading of fake news. While the first step of such tasks would be to classify claims associated based on their credibility, the next steps would involve identifying hidden patterns in style, syntax, and content of such news claims. We provide a comprehensive overview of what has already been done in this domain and other similar fields, and then propose a generalized method based on Deep Neural Networks to identify if a given claim is fake or genuine. By using different features like the authenticity of the source, perceived cognitive authority, style, and content-based factors, and natural language features, it is possible to predict fake news accurately. We have used a modular approach by combining techniques from information retrieval, natural language processing, and deep learning. Our classifier comprises two main sub-modules. The first sub-module uses the claim to retrieve relevant articles from the knowledge base which can then be used to verify the truth of the claim. It also uses word-level features for prediction. The second sub-module uses a deep neural network to learn the underlying style of fake content. Our experiments conducted on benchmark datasets show that for the given classification task we can obtain up to 82.4% accuracy by using a combination of two models; the first model was up to 72% accurate while the second model was around 81\% accurate. Our detection model has the potential to automatically detect and prevent the spread of fake news, thus, limiting the caustic influence of technology in the human lives

FANG: Leveraging Social Context for Fake News Detection Using Graph Representation

We propose Factual News Graph (FANG), a novel graphical social context representation and learning framework for fake news detection. Unlike previous contextual models that have targeted performance, our focus is on representation learning. Compared to transductive models, FANG is scalable in training as it does not have to maintain all nodes, and it is efficient at inference time, without the need to re-process the entire graph. Our experimental results show that FANG is better at capturing the social context into a high fidelity representation, compared to recent graphical and non-graphical models. In particular, FANG yields significant improvements for the task of fake news detection, and it is robust in the case of limited training data. We further demonstrate that the representations learned by FANG generalize to related tasks, such as predicting the factuality of reporting of a news medium.Comment: To appear in CIKM 202

Credibility analysis of textual claims with explainable evidence

Despite being a vast resource of valuable information, the Web has been polluted by the spread of false claims. Increasing hoaxes, fake news, and misleading information on the Web have given rise to many fact-checking websites that manually assess these doubtful claims. However, the rapid speed and large scale of misinformation spread have become the bottleneck for manual verification. This calls for credibility assessment tools that can automate this verification process. Prior works in this domain make strong assumptions about the structure of the claims and the communities where they are made. Most importantly, black-box techniques proposed in prior works lack the ability to explain why a certain statement is deemed credible or not. To address these limitations, this dissertation proposes a general framework for automated credibility assessment that does not make any assumption about the structure or origin of the claims. Specifically, we propose a feature-based model, which automatically retrieves relevant articles about the given claim and assesses its credibility by capturing the mutual interaction between the language style of the relevant articles, their stance towards the claim, and the trustworthiness of the underlying web sources. We further enhance our credibility assessment approach and propose a neural-network-based model. Unlike the feature-based model, this model does not rely on feature engineering and external lexicons. Both our models make their assessments interpretable by extracting explainable evidence from judiciously selected web sources. We utilize our models and develop a Web interface, CredEye, which enables users to automatically assess the credibility of a textual claim and dissect into the assessment by browsing through judiciously and automatically selected evidence snippets. In addition, we study the problem of stance classification and propose a neural-network-based model for predicting the stance of diverse user perspectives regarding the controversial claims. Given a controversial claim and a user comment, our stance classification model predicts whether the user comment is supporting or opposing the claim.Das Web ist eine riesige Quelle wertvoller Informationen, allerdings wurde es durch die Verbreitung von Falschmeldungen verschmutzt. Eine zunehmende Anzahl an Hoaxes, Falschmeldungen und irreführenden Informationen im Internet haben viele Websites hervorgebracht, auf denen die Fakten überprüft und zweifelhafte Behauptungen manuell bewertet werden. Die rasante Verbreitung großer Mengen von Fehlinformationen sind jedoch zum Engpass für die manuelle Überprüfung geworden. Dies erfordert Tools zur Bewertung der Glaubwürdigkeit, mit denen dieser Überprüfungsprozess automatisiert werden kann. In früheren Arbeiten in diesem Bereich werden starke Annahmen gemacht über die Struktur der Behauptungen und die Portale, in denen sie gepostet werden. Vor allem aber können die Black-Box-Techniken, die in früheren Arbeiten vorgeschlagen wurden, nicht erklären, warum eine bestimmte Aussage als glaubwürdig erachtet wird oder nicht. Um diesen Einschränkungen zu begegnen, wird in dieser Dissertation ein allgemeines Framework für die automatisierte Bewertung der Glaubwürdigkeit vorgeschlagen, bei dem keine Annahmen über die Struktur oder den Ursprung der Behauptungen gemacht werden. Insbesondere schlagen wir ein featurebasiertes Modell vor, das automatisch relevante Artikel zu einer bestimmten Behauptung abruft und deren Glaubwürdigkeit bewertet, indem die gegenseitige Interaktion zwischen dem Sprachstil der relevanten Artikel, ihre Haltung zur Behauptung und der Vertrauenswürdigkeit der zugrunde liegenden Quellen erfasst wird. Wir verbessern unseren Ansatz zur Bewertung der Glaubwürdigkeit weiter und schlagen ein auf neuronalen Netzen basierendes Modell vor. Im Gegensatz zum featurebasierten Modell ist dieses Modell nicht auf Feature-Engineering und externe Lexika angewiesen. Unsere beiden Modelle machen ihre Einschätzungen interpretierbar, indem sie erklärbare Beweise aus sorgfältig ausgewählten Webquellen extrahieren. Wir verwenden unsere Modelle zur Entwicklung eines Webinterfaces, CredEye, mit dem Benutzer die Glaubwürdigkeit einer Behauptung in Textform automatisch bewerten und verstehen können, indem sie automatisch ausgewählte Beweisstücke einsehen. Darüber hinaus untersuchen wir das Problem der Positionsklassifizierung und schlagen ein auf neuronalen Netzen basierendes Modell vor, um die Position verschiedener Benutzerperspektiven in Bezug auf die umstrittenen Behauptungen vorherzusagen. Bei einer kontroversen Behauptung und einem Benutzerkommentar sagt unser Einstufungsmodell voraus, ob der Benutzerkommentar die Behauptung unterstützt oder ablehnt

Stance classification in social media using machine learning techniques

Stance classification has been a popular research topic. The target of my research is to build a model to classify post stance in social media, which can later be used to determine the veracity of rumors in social media. My research mainly consists four parts: related work review, baseline reproduction, model exploration and optimization, and results and analysis. All the posts are classified into four categories: support, deny, query and comment. I first tried to reproduce the baseline. Then, I explored and evaluated the performances of different models, and compared model performances. Finally, I summarized the results and gave future research directions.Informatio