Probabilistic Framework for Behavior Characterization of Traffic Participants Enabling Long Term Prediction

This research aims at developing new methods that predict the behaviors of the human driven traffic participants to enable safe operation of autonomous vehicles in complex traffic environments. Autonomous vehicles are expected to operate amongst human driven conventional vehicles in the traffic at least for the next few decades. For safe navigation they will need to infer the intents as well as the behaviors of the human traffic participants using extrinsically observable information, so that their trajectories can be predicted for a time horizon long enough to do a predictive risk analysis and gracefully avert any risky situation. This research approaches this challenge by recognizing that any maneuver performed by a human driver can be divided into four stages that depend on the surrounding context: intent determination, maneuver preparation, gap acceptance and maneuver execution. It builds on the hypothesis that for a given driver, the behavior not only spans across these four maneuver stages, but across multiple maneuvers. As a result, identifying the driver behavior in any of these stages can help characterize the nature of all the subsequent maneuvers that the driver is likely to perform, thus resulting in a more accurate prediction for a longer time horizon. To enable this, a novel probabilistic framework is proposed that couples the different maneuver stages of the observed traffic participant together and associates them to a driving style. To realize this framework two candidate Multiple Model Adaptive Estimation approaches were compared: Autonomous Multiple Model (AMM) and Interacting Multiple Model(IMM) filtering approach. The IMM approach proved superior to the AMM approach and was eventually validated using a trajectory extracted from a real world dataset for efficacy. The proposed framework was then implemented by extending the validated IMM approach with contextual information of the observed traffic participant. The classification of the driving style of the traffic participant (behavior characterization) was then demonstrated for two use case scenarios. The proposed contextual IMM (CIMM) framework also showed improvements in the performance of the behavior classification of the traffic participants compared to the IMM for the identified use case scenarios. This outcome warrants further exploration of this framework for different traffic scenarios. Further, it contributes towards the ongoing endeavors for safe deployment of autonomous vehicles on public roads

Proposal of a risk model for vehicular traffic: A Boltzmann-type kinetic approach

This paper deals with a Boltzmann-type kinetic model describing the interplay between vehicle dynamics and safety aspects in vehicular traffic. Sticking to the idea that the macroscopic characteristics of traffic flow, including the distribution of the driving risk along a road, are ultimately generated by one-to-one interactions among drivers, the model links the personal (i.e., individual) risk to the changes of speeds of single vehicles and implements a probabilistic description of such microscopic interactions in a Boltzmann-type collisional operator. By means of suitable statistical moments of the kinetic distribution function, it is finally possible to recover macroscopic relationships between the average risk and the road congestion, which show an interesting and reasonable correlation with the well-known free and congested phases of the flow of vehicles.Comment: 23 pages, 3 figures, Commun. Math. Sci., 201

Influence of a system “vehicle – driver – road – environment” on the energy efficiency of the vehicles with electric drive

The purpose of this paper is to present the results of an investigation as to the interconnection between main exterior factors which can influence the power consumption during the vehicle movement in the conditions of real operation. According to the results of theoretic researches, there was determined an influence of every factor on the power consumption during vehicle movement in the modes typical for Lutsk city. There was established a contribution of the factors into the total power consumption on micro and macro levels. As a result of the study it was evaluated that an influence of a driver on a power consumption is situated within 50…80 %, an influence of an air resistance is up to 10 %, an influence of a longitudinal profile and a road resistance varies within 20…35 %. According to the results of experiments, there were determined the bus driving modes in urban conditions, and according to their results, there was built an average graph of bus movement in Lutsk city. There was made a mathematic modelling of electric vehicle movement, along with that there was taken into account the most probable range of change of the exterior factors, namely vehicle acceleration, road resistance, air resistance. It was proved that while speed is growing, the influence of road resistance and of air resistance is growing up and has a parabolic character, along with that the contribution of a driver is decreasing. The contribution of the study consists in that, There were proposed the coefficients of taking into consideration the influence of exterior factors on the power consumption by the vehicle and there was built a mathematic model for their determination. These coefficients of taking into consideration the influence of exterior factors on the power consumption give a possibility to evaluate the critical influences and to make an operative decision about the minimization of power consumption as for some specific vehicles, and for an enterprise. Further researches will focus on the plotting of telemetric means of informing, in a mode of real time, of the drivers of the vehicles, of the controllers of an enterprise about the exterior influences, that will give a possibility to make the appropriative decisions instantly. Besides, the given results can be used in order to determine the level of qualification of a driver, the state of road pavement, will give a possibility to find some more rational layout of bus stops, traffic lights, to optimize the routes of vehicles movement

Safety of autonomous vehicles: A survey on Model-based vs. AI-based approaches

The growing advancements in Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) have emphasized the critical need to prioritize the absolute safety of AV maneuvers, especially in dynamic and unpredictable environments or situations. This objective becomes even more challenging due to the uniqueness of every traffic situation/condition. To cope with all these very constrained and complex configurations, AVs must have appropriate control architectures with reliable and real-time Risk Assessment and Management Strategies (RAMS). These targeted RAMS must lead to reduce drastically the navigation risks. However, the lack of safety guarantees proves, which is one of the key challenges to be addressed, limit drastically the ambition to introduce more broadly AVs on our roads and restrict the use of AVs to very limited use cases. Therefore, the focus and the ambition of this paper is to survey research on autonomous vehicles while focusing on the important topic of safety guarantee of AVs. For this purpose, it is proposed to review research on relevant methods and concepts defining an overall control architecture for AVs, with an emphasis on the safety assessment and decision-making systems composing these architectures. Moreover, it is intended through this reviewing process to highlight researches that use either model-based methods or AI-based approaches. This is performed while emphasizing the strengths and weaknesses of each methodology and investigating the research that proposes a comprehensive multi-modal design that combines model-based and AI approaches. This paper ends with discussions on the methods used to guarantee the safety of AVs namely: safety verification techniques and the standardization/generalization of safety frameworks

Personalized driver workload inference by learning from vehicle related measurements

Adapting in-vehicle systems (e.g. Advanced Driver Assistance Systems, In-Vehicle Information Systems) to individual drivers’ workload can enhance safety and convenience. To make this possible, it is a prerequisite to infer driver workload so that adaptive aiding can be provided to the driver at the right time and in a proper manner. Rather than developing an average model for all drivers, a Personalized Driver Workload Inference (PDWI) system considering individual drivers’ driving characteristics is developed using machine learning techniques via easily accessed Vehicle Related Measurements (VRMs). The proposed PDWI system comprises two stages. In offline training, individual drivers’ workload is first automatically splitted into different categories according to its inherent data characteristics using Fuzzy C means clustering. Then an implicit mapping between VRMs and different levels of workload is constructed via classification algorithms. In online implementation, VRMs samples are classified into different clusters, consequently driver workload can be successfully inferred. A recently collected dataset from real-world naturalistic driving experiments is drawn to validate the proposed PDWI system. Comparative experimental results indicate that the proposed framework integrating Fuzzy C-means clustering and Support Vector Machine classifier provides a promising workload recognition performance in terms of accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score and prediction time. The inter-individual differences in term of workload are also identified and can be accommodated by the proposed framework due to its adaptiveness

Methodology for development of drought Severity-Duration-Frequency (SDF) Curves

Drought monitoring and early warning are essential elements impacting drought sensitive sectors such as primary production, industrial and consumptive water users. A quantitative estimate of the probability of occurrence and the anticipated severity of drought is crucial for the development of mitigating strategies. The overall aim of this study is to develop a methodology to assess drought frequency and severity and to advance the understanding of monitoring and predicting droughts in the future. Seventy (70) meteorological stations across Victoria, Australia were selected for analysis. To achieve the above objective, the analysis was initially carried out to select the most applicable meteorological drought index for Victoria. This is important because to date, no drought indices are applied across Australia by any Commonwealth agency quantifying drought impacts. An evaluation of existing meteorological drought indices namely, the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) and Deciles was first conducted to assess their suitability for the determination of drought conditions. The use of the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) was shown to be satisfactory for assessing and monitoring meteorological droughts in Australia. When applied to data, SPI was also successful in detecting the onset and the end of historical droughts. Temporal changes in historic rainfall variability and the trend of SPI were investigated using non-parametric trend techniques to detect wet and dry periods across Victoria, Australia. The first part of the analysis was carried out to determine annual rainfall trends using Mann Kendall (MK) and Sen’s slope tests at five selected meteorological stations with long historical records (more than 100 years), as well as a short sub-set period (1949-2011) of the same data set. It was found that different trend results were obtained for the sub-set. For SPI trend analysis, it was observed that, although different results were obtained showing significant trends, SPI gave a trend direction similar to annual precipitation (downward and upward trends). In addition, temporal trends in the rate of occurrence of drought events (i.e. inter-arrival times) were examined. The fact that most of the stations showed negative slopes indicated that the intervals between events were becoming shorter and the frequency of events was temporally increasing. Based on the results obtained from the preliminary analysis, the trend analyses were then carried out for the remaining 65 stations. The main conclusions from these analyses are summarized as follows; 1) the trend analysis was observed to be highly dependent on the start and end dates of analysis. It is recommended that in the selection of time period for the drought, trend analysis should consider the length xvi of available data sets. Longer data series would give more meaningful results, thus improving the understanding of droughts impacted by climate change. 2) From the SPI and inter-arrival drought trends, it was observed that some of the study areas in Victoria will face more frequent dry period leading to increased drought occurrence. Information similar to this would be very important to develop suitable strategies to mitigate the impacts of future droughts. The main objective of this study was the development of a methodology to assess drought risk for each region based on a frequency analysis of the drought severity series using the SPI index calculated over a 12-month duration. A novel concept centric on drought severity-duration-frequency (SDF) curves was successfully derived for all the 70 stations using an innovative threshold approach. The methodology derived using extreme value analysis will assist in the characterization of droughts and provide useful information to policy makers and agencies developing drought response plans. Using regionalisation techniques such as Cluster analysis and modified Andrews curve, the study area was separated into homogenous groups based on rainfall characteristics. In the current Victorian application the study area was separated into six homogeneous clusters with unique signatures. A set of mean SDF curves was developed for each cluster to identify the frequency and severity of the risk of drought events for various return periods in each cluster. The advantage of developing a mean SDF curve (as a signature) for each cluster is that it assists the understanding of drought conditions for an ungauged or unknown station, the characteristics of which fit existing cluster groups. Non-homogeneous Markov Chain modelling was used to estimate the probability of different drought severity classes and drought severity class predictions 1, 2 and 3 months ahead. The non-homogeneous formulation, which considers the seasonality of precipitation, is useful for understanding the evolution of drought events and for short-term planning. Overall, this model predicted drought situations 1 month ahead well. However, predictions 2 and 3 months ahead should be used with caution. Many parts of Australia including Victoria have experienced their worst droughts on record over the last decade. With the threat of climate change potentially further exacerbating droughts in the years ahead, a clear understanding of the impact of droughts is vital. The information on the probability of occurrence and the anticipated severity of drought will be helpful for water resources managers, infrastructure planners and government policy-makers with future infrastructure planning and with the design and building of more resilient communities

Learning Motion Primitives Automata for Autonomous Driving Applications

Motion planning methods often rely on libraries of primitives. The selection of primitives is then crucial for assuring feasible solutions and good performance within the motion planner. In the literature, the library is usually designed by either learning from demonstration, relying entirely on data, or by model-based approaches, with the advantage of exploiting the dynamical system’s property, e.g., symmetries. In this work, we propose a method combining data with a dynamical model to optimally select primitives. The library is designed based on primitives with highest occurrences within the data set, while Lie group symmetries from a model are analysed in the available data to allow for structure-exploiting primitives. We illustrate our technique in an autonomous driving application. Primitives are identified based on data from human driving, with the freedom to build libraries of different sizes as a parameter of choice. We also compare the extracted library with a custom selection of primitives regarding the performance of obtained solutions for a street layout based on a real-world scenario