Clustering-Based Predictive Process Monitoring

Business process enactment is generally supported by information systems that record data about process executions, which can be extracted as event logs. Predictive process monitoring is concerned with exploiting such event logs to predict how running (uncompleted) cases will unfold up to their completion. In this paper, we propose a predictive process monitoring framework for estimating the probability that a given predicate will be fulfilled upon completion of a running case. The predicate can be, for example, a temporal logic constraint or a time constraint, or any predicate that can be evaluated over a completed trace. The framework takes into account both the sequence of events observed in the current trace, as well as data attributes associated to these events. The prediction problem is approached in two phases. First, prefixes of previous traces are clustered according to control flow information. Secondly, a classifier is built for each cluster using event data to discriminate between fulfillments and violations. At runtime, a prediction is made on a running case by mapping it to a cluster and applying the corresponding classifier. The framework has been implemented in the ProM toolset and validated on a log pertaining to the treatment of cancer patients in a large hospital

A Method and Tool for Predictive Event-Driven Process Analytics

Business value can be lost if a decision maker’s action distance to the observation of a business event is too high. So far, two classes of information systems, which promise to assist decision makers, have been discussed independently from each other only: business intelligence systems that query historic business event data in order to prepare predictions of future process behavior and real-time monitoring systems. This paper suggests using real-time data for predictions following an event-driven approach. A predictive event-driven process analytics (edPA) method is presented which integrates aspects from business activity monitoring and process intelligence. Needs for procedure integration, metric quality, and the inclusion of actionable improvements are outlined. The method is implemented in the form of a software prototype and evaluated

Predictive Process Monitoring Methods: Which One Suits Me Best?

Predictive process monitoring has recently gained traction in academia and is maturing also in companies. However, with the growing body of research, it might be daunting for companies to navigate in this domain in order to find, provided certain data, what can be predicted and what methods to use. The main objective of this paper is developing a value-driven framework for classifying existing work on predictive process monitoring. This objective is achieved by systematically identifying, categorizing, and analyzing existing approaches for predictive process monitoring. The review is then used to develop a value-driven framework that can support organizations to navigate in the predictive process monitoring field and help them to find value and exploit the opportunities enabled by these analysis techniques

Machine Learning in Business Process Monitoring: A Comparison of Deep Learning and Classical Approaches Used for Outcome Prediction

Predictive process monitoring aims at forecasting the behavior, performance, and outcomes of business processes at runtime. It helps identify problems before they occur and re-allocate resources before they are wasted. Although deep learning (DL) has yielded breakthroughs, most existing approaches build on classical machine learning (ML) techniques, particularly when it comes to outcome-oriented predictive process monitoring. This circumstance reflects a lack of understanding about which event log properties facilitate the use of DL techniques. To address this gap, the authors compared the performance of DL (i.e., simple feedforward deep neural networks and long short term memory networks) and ML techniques (i.e., random forests and support vector machines) based on five publicly available event logs. It could be observed that DL generally outperforms classical ML techniques. Moreover, three specific propositions could be inferred from further observations: First, the outperformance of DL techniques is particularly strong for logs with a high variant-to-instance ratio (i.e., many non-standard cases). Second, DL techniques perform more stably in case of imbalanced target variables, especially for logs with a high event-to-activity ratio (i.e., many loops in the control flow). Third, logs with a high activity-to-instance payload ratio (i.e., input data is predominantly generated at runtime) call for the application of long short term memory networks. Due to the purposive sampling of event logs and techniques, these findings also hold for logs outside this study

A Web-Based Tool For Predictive Process Analytics

Äripotsesside ennustav seire kasutab äriprotsesse toetavaid sündmuste logisid, luues ennustusi äriindikaatorite suhtes, näiteks aeg, maksumus ja järgnevad sündmused. Arvestades kasvavat huvi valdkonna vastu, on nii äri- kui akadeemilises valdkonnas loodud mitmeid lahendusi visualiseerimaks neid ennustusi kasutaja jaoks arusaadaval kujul. Käesolevas magistritöös pakume välja veebipõhise raamistiku ja tööriista, mis lubab kasutajatel hindamiseks kiirelt visualiseerida ennustusmudeleid. Veelgi enam, selle töö käigus loodi veebirakendus, mis suudab suhelda veebiteenuste abil ükskõik millise ennustusprotsessis kasutatava serveri rakendusega. Lõpuks uurib antud töö ka mitme juhtumi põhist ennustust, mis tähendab, et mudelid luuakse kasutades mitut sündmuste logi juhtumit.Predictive Process Monitoring aims at exploiting event logs in business processes by providing predictions and forecasts on key business metrics such as time, cost and activity executions. As the interest in this field grows, various methods and approaches have been implemented in both academia and industry sectors in order to produce visual results that are understandable to the users. In this Master's Thesis, we propose a web-based framework and tool that enables participants in this field to build quick visualizations on their predictive models for evaluation. Furthermore, this project intends to have an independent front-end application which can work with any method running on the back-end as a web-service that is used in the prediction process. Finally, this project looks into the realm of inter-case predictions which uses multiple cases in building a prediction model of an event log

Leveraging Multi-Perspective A priori Knowledge in Predictive Business Process Monitoring

Äriprotsesside ennestusseire on valdkond, mis on pühendunud käimasolevate äriprotsesside tuleviku ennustamisele kasutades selleks minevikus sooritatud äriprotsesside kohta käivaid andmeid. Valdav osa uurimustööst selles valdkonnas keskendub ainult seda tüüpi andmetele, jättes tähelepanuta täiendavad teadmised (a priori teadmised) protsessi teostumise kohta tulevikus. Hiljuti pakuti välja lähenemine, mis võimaldab a priori teadmisi kasutada LTL-reeglite näol. Kuid tõsiasjana on antud tehnika limiteeritud äriprotsessi kontroll-voole, jättes välja võimaluse väljendada a priori teadmisi, mis puudutavad lisaks kontrollvoole ka informatsiooni protsessis leiduvate atribuutide kohta (multiperspektiivsed a priori teadmised). Me pakume välja lahenduse, mis võimaldab seda tüüpi teadmiste kasutuse, tehes multiperspektiivseid ennustusi käimasoleva äriprotsessi kohta. Tulemused, milleni jõuti rakendades väljapakutud tehnikat 20-le tehisärilogile ning ühele elulisele ärilogile, näitavad, et meie lähenemine suudab pakkuda konkurentsivõimelisi ennustusi.Predictive business process monitoring is an area dedicated to exploiting past process execution data in order to predict the future unfolding of a currently executed business process instance. Most of the research done in this domain focuses on exploiting the past process execution data only, leaving neglected additional a priori knowledge that might become available at runtime. Recently, an approach was proposed, which allows to leverage a priori knowledge on the control flow in the form of LTL-rules. However, cases exist in which more granular a priori knowledge becomes available about perspectives that go be-yond the pure control flow like data, time and resources (multiperspective a priori knowledge). In this thesis, we propose a technique that enables to leverage multi-perspective a priori knowledge when making predictions of complex sequences, i.e., sequences of events with a subset of the data attributes attached to them. The results, obtained by applying the proposed technique to 20 synthetic logs and 1 real life log, show that the proposed technique is able to overcome state-of-the-art approaches by successfully leveraging multiperspective a priori knowledge

Äriprotsessi tulemuste ennustav ja korralduslik seire

Viimastel aastatel on erinevates valdkondades tegutsevad ettevõtted üles näidanud kasvavat huvi masinõppel põhinevate rakenduste kasutusele võtmiseks. Muuhulgas otsitakse võimalusi oma äriprotsesside efektiivsuse tõstmiseks, kasutades ennustusmudeleid protsesside jooksvaks seireks. Sellised ennustava protsessiseire meetodid võtavad sisendiks sündmuslogi, mis koosneb hulgast lõpetatud äriprotsessi juhtumite sündmusjadadest, ning kasutavad masinõppe algoritme ennustusmudelite treenimiseks. Saadud mudelid teevad ennustusi lõpetamata (antud ajahetkel aktiivsete) protsessijuhtumite jaoks, võttes sisendiks sündmuste jada, mis selle hetkeni on toimunud ning ennustades kas järgmist sündmust antud juhtumis, juhtumi lõppemiseni jäänud aega või instantsi lõpptulemust. Lõpptulemusele orienteeritud ennustava protsessiseire meetodid keskenduvad ennustamisele, kas protsessijuhtum lõppeb soovitud või ebasoovitava lõpptulemusega. Süsteemi kasutaja saab ennustuste alusel otsustada, kas sekkuda antud protsessijuhtumisse või mitte, eesmärgiga ära hoida ebasoovitavat lõpptulemust või leevendada selle negatiivseid tagajärgi. Erinevalt puhtalt ennustavatest süsteemidest annavad korralduslikud protsessiseire meetodid kasutajale ka soovitusi, kas ja kuidas antud juhtumisse sekkuda, eesmärgiga optimeerida mingit kindlat kasulikkusfunktsiooni. Käesolev doktoritöö uurib, kuidas treenida, hinnata ja kasutada ennustusmudeleid äriprotsesside lõpptulemuste ennustava ja korraldusliku seire raames. Doktoritöö pakub välja taksonoomia olemasolevate meetodite klassifitseerimiseks ja võrdleb neid katseliselt. Lisaks pakub töö välja raamistiku tekstiliste andmete kasutamiseks antud ennustusmudelites. Samuti pakume välja ennustuste ajalise stabiilsuse mõiste ning koostame raamistiku korralduslikuks protsessiseireks, mis annab kasutajatele soovitusi, kas protsessi sekkuda või mitte. Katsed näitavad, et väljapakutud lahendused täiendavad olemasolevaid meetodeid ning aitavad kaasa ennustava protsessiseire süsteemide rakendamisele reaalsetes süsteemides.Recent years have witnessed a growing adoption of machine learning techniques for business improvement across various fields. Among other emerging applications, organizations are exploiting opportunities to improve the performance of their business processes by using predictive models for runtime monitoring. Such predictive process monitoring techniques take an event log (a set of completed business process execution traces) as input and use machine learning techniques to train predictive models. At runtime, these techniques predict either the next event, the remaining time, or the final outcome of an ongoing case, given its incomplete execution trace consisting of the events performed up to the present moment in the given case. In particular, a family of techniques called outcome-oriented predictive process monitoring focuses on predicting whether a case will end with a desired or an undesired outcome. The user of the system can use the predictions to decide whether or not to intervene, with the purpose of preventing an undesired outcome or mitigating its negative effects. Prescriptive process monitoring systems go beyond purely predictive ones, by not only generating predictions but also advising the user if and how to intervene in a running case in order to optimize a given utility function. This thesis addresses the question of how to train, evaluate, and use predictive models for predictive and prescriptive monitoring of business process outcomes. The thesis proposes a taxonomy and performs a comparative experimental evaluation of existing techniques in the field. Moreover, we propose a framework for incorporating textual data to predictive monitoring systems. We introduce the notion of temporal stability to evaluate these systems and propose a prescriptive process monitoring framework for advising users if and how to act upon the predictions. The results suggest that the proposed solutions complement the existing techniques and can be useful for practitioners in implementing predictive process monitoring systems in real life

Uma proposta de coleta e visualização de métricas de custo, tamanho e esforço, em projetos de software ágeis, com apoio de ferramenta Data Warehousing

Monografia (graduação)—Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade UnB Gama, Curso de Engenharia de Software, 2013.O gerenciamento de projeto é de fundamental importância, pois permite ao gerente monitorar o andamento do projeto nos pontos de interesse da organização, do cliente e das pessoas envolvidas. Entre as métricas de software de produto, processo e de projeto, as de projeto são exploradas para que seja possível manter o projeto sob controle em termos de custo, tempo e escopo. A comparação entre as métodos de gerenciamento tradicional e ágil, PMBOK e SCRUM, respectivamente, fez-se necessária para o estudo das técnicas de Valor Agregado em projeto tradicionais e de Valor Agregado em projeto Ágeis. A aplicação da técnica de Valor Agregado Tradicional em projeto ágeis esbarra em pressupostos que vão na contramão dos valores defendidos pelo manifesto ágil. Logo, utilizando-se da técnica de Valor Agregado Ágil para projetos ágeis de desenvolvimento de software é possível acompanhar o desempenho e progresso do projeto através do monitoramento dos custos. Em posse desses dados, é possível utilizar um ambiente de Data Warehouse para automatizar o processo de extração, transformação, carga (ETL) e visualização de custos oriundas da produção do software. ___________________________________________________________________________ ABSTRACTThe project management is crucial because it allows the manager to monitor the progress of the project in points of interest of the organization, the customer and the people involved. Between software metrics’ that are categorized in product, process and project, the projects one are explored so that you can keep the project on track in terms of cost, time and scope. The comparison between the traditional and Agile management methods, SCRUM and PMBOK, respectively, it is necessary to study the techniques of Earned Value Management in traditional projects and Agile Earned Value Management in Agile projects. The application of the Tradicional Earned Value technique in Agile projects faces on assumptions that go against the values espoused by the Agile Manifesto. Thus, using the AgileEVM technique for Agile software development projects, it is possible to monitor the performance and progress of the project by monitoring costs. With these data, it is possible to use a Data Warehouse environment to automate the process of extraction, transformation, loading (ETL) and visualization of costs derived from the production of software

Proceedings der 11. Internationalen Tagung Wirtschaftsinformatik (WI2013) - Band 1

The two volumes represent the proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Wirtschaftsinformatik WI2013 (Business Information Systems). They include 118 papers from ten research tracks, a general track and the Student Consortium. The selection of all submissions was subject to a double blind procedure with three reviews for each paper and an overall acceptance rate of 25 percent. The WI2013 was organized at the University of Leipzig between February 27th and March 1st, 2013 and followed the main themes Innovation, Integration and Individualization.:Track 1: Individualization and Consumerization Track 2: Integrated Systems in Manufacturing Industries Track 3: Integrated Systems in Service Industries Track 4: Innovations and Business Models Track 5: Information and Knowledge ManagementDie zweibändigen Tagungsbände zur 11. Internationalen Tagung Wirtschaftsinformatik (WI2013) enthalten 118 Forschungsbeiträge aus zehn thematischen Tracks der Wirtschaftsinformatik, einem General Track sowie einem Student Consortium. Die Selektion der Artikel erfolgte nach einem Double-Blind-Verfahren mit jeweils drei Gutachten und führte zu einer Annahmequote von 25%. Die WI2013 hat vom 27.02. - 01.03.2013 unter den Leitthemen Innovation, Integration und Individualisierung an der Universität Leipzig stattgefunden.:Track 1: Individualization and Consumerization Track 2: Integrated Systems in Manufacturing Industries Track 3: Integrated Systems in Service Industries Track 4: Innovations and Business Models Track 5: Information and Knowledge Managemen