Using Shock Index as a Predictor of ICU Readmission: A Quality Iimprovement Project

Background: Adverse events will occur in one-third of patients discharged from the intensivecare unit (ICU) and evidence shows that ICU readmissions increase a patient’s length of stay,mortality, hospital costs, and nosocomial infections, as well as decrease long-term survival.Specific predictive factors that will accurately predict which patients are at risk of adverseevents requiring readmission are needed.Aim: The specific aim of this project was to identify if shock index (SI) values higher than 0.7at the time of transfer from the ICU are a useful predictor of ICU readmission.Methods: Using the Plan, Do, Study, Act (PDSA) framework, a retrospective chart review wasperformed using a matched cohort of 34 patients readmitted with 72 hours of discharge from theICU and 34 controls to obtain SI values at admission, transfer from and readmission to the ICU.A second PDSA cycle looked for SI trends within 24 hours prior to discharge from the ICU.Results: An odds ratio calculating the risk of readmission of patients with an elevated SI was2.96 (Confidence Interval (CI) 1.1 to 7.94, p-value=0.03). The odds ratio for an 80% SIelevation over 24 hours prior to discharge was 1.56 (CI 0.36 to 6.76, p-value=0.55).Conclusion and Implications for CNL Practice: Patients with elevated SIs at the time oftransfer are three times more likely to be readmitted to the ICU. Patients with elevations in atleast 80% of the 24 hour pre-discharge SIs showed no significant differences between thecontrol and readmitted cohorts. Implications of these results for the clinical nurse leader will bediscussed

Predicting death and readmission after intensive care discharge

Background: Despite initial recovery from critical illness, many patients deteriorate after discharge from the intensive care unit (ICU). We examined prospectively collected data in an attempt to identify patients at risk of readmission or death after intensive care discharge. Methods: This was a secondary analysis of clinical audit data from patients discharged alive from a mixed medical and surgical (non-cardiac) ICU. Results: Four hundred and seventy-five patients (11.2%) died in hospital after discharge from the ICU. Increasing age, time in hospital before intensive care admission, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score, and discharge Therapeutic Intervention Scoring System (TISS) score were independent risk factors for death after intensive care discharge. Three hundred and eighty-five patients (8.8%) were readmitted to intensive care during the same hospital admission. Increasing age, time in hospital before intensive care, APACHE II score, and discharge to a high dependency unit were independent risk factors for readmission. One hundred and forty-three patients (3.3%) were readmitted within 48 h of intensive care discharge. APACHE II scores and discharge to a high dependency or other ICU were independent risk factors for early readmission. The overall discriminant ability of our models was moderate with only marginal benefit over the APACHE II scores alone. Conclusions: We identified risk factors associated with death and readmission to intensive care. It was not possible to produce a definitive model based on these risk factors for predicting death or readmission in an individual patient.Not peer reviewedAuthor versio

Benchmarking Deep Learning Architectures for Predicting Readmission to the ICU and Describing Patients-at-Risk

Objective: To compare different deep learning architectures for predicting the risk of readmission within 30 days of discharge from the intensive care unit (ICU). The interpretability of attention-based models is leveraged to describe patients-at-risk. Methods: Several deep learning architectures making use of attention mechanisms, recurrent layers, neural ordinary differential equations (ODEs), and medical concept embeddings with time-aware attention were trained using publicly available electronic medical record data (MIMIC-III) associated with 45,298 ICU stays for 33,150 patients. Bayesian inference was used to compute the posterior over weights of an attention-based model. Odds ratios associated with an increased risk of readmission were computed for static variables. Diagnoses, procedures, medications, and vital signs were ranked according to the associated risk of readmission. Results: A recurrent neural network, with time dynamics of code embeddings computed by neural ODEs, achieved the highest average precision of 0.331 (AUROC: 0.739, F1-Score: 0.372). Predictive accuracy was comparable across neural network architectures. Groups of patients at risk included those suffering from infectious complications, with chronic or progressive conditions, and for whom standard medical care was not suitable. Conclusions: Attention-based networks may be preferable to recurrent networks if an interpretable model is required, at only marginal cost in predictive accuracy

Readmissions with multidrug-resistant infection in patients with prior multidrug resistant infection

OBJECTIVETo determine incidence of and risk factors for readmissions with multidrug-resistant organism (MDRO) infections among patients with previous MDRO infection.DESIGNRetrospective cohort of patients admitted between January 1, 2006, and October 1, 2015.SETTINGBarnes-Jewish Hospital, a 1,250-bed academic tertiary referral center in St Louis, Missouri.METHODSWe identified patients with MDROs obtained from the bloodstream, bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL)/bronchial wash, or other sterile sites. Centers for Disease Control and prevention (CDC) and European CDC definitions of MDROs were utilized. All readmissions ≤1 year from discharge from the index MDRO hospitalization were evaluated for bloodstream, BAL/bronchial wash, or other sterile site cultures positive for the same or different MDROs.RESULTSIn total, 4,429 unique patients had a positive culture for an MDRO; 3,453 of these (78.0%) survived the index hospitalization. Moreover, 2,127 patients (61.6%) were readmitted ≥1 time within a year, for a total of 5,849 readmissions. Furthermore, 512 patients (24.1%) had the same or a different MDRO isolated from blood, BAL/bronchial wash, or another sterile site during a readmission. Bone marrow transplant, end-stage renal disease, lymphoma, methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, or carbapenem-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa during index hospitalization were factors associated with increased risk of having an MDRO isolated during a readmission. MDROs isolated during readmissions were in the same class of MDRO as the index hospitalization 9%–78% of the time, with variation by index pathogen.CONCLUSIONSReadmissions among patients with MDRO infections are frequent. Various patient and organism factors predispose to readmission. When readmitted patients had an MDRO, it was often a pathogen in the same class as that isolated during the index admission, with the exception of Acinetobacter (~9%).Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 2018;39:12–19</jats:sec

Prediction of ICU Readmission Using Clinical Notes

Unplanned readmissions to the ICU result in higher medical costs and an increase in the likelihood of adverse events, extended hospital stays, and mortality. Machine learning models can leverage the large amount of data stored in electronic health records to predict these cases and provide physicians with more information about patient risk at the time of ICU discharge. Most prior work in this area has focused on developing models using only the structured data found in electronic health records and neglects the large amount of unstructured information stored in clinical notes. This work applies deep learning techniques to these notes to predict ICU readmission and develops models that outperform prior work that focuses only on structured data

Developing a reflection and analysis tool (We-ReAlyse) for readmissions to the intensive care unit: A quality improvement project

Readmissions to the intensive care unit are associated with poorer patient outcomes and health prognoses, alongside increased lengths of stay and mortality risk. To improve quality of care and patients' safety, it is essential to understand influencing factors relevant to specific patient populations and settings. A standardized tool for systematic retrospective analysis of readmissions would help healthcare professionals understand risks and reasons affecting readmissions; however, no such tool exists.; This study's purpose was to develop a tool (We-ReAlyse) to analyze readmissions to the intensive care unit from general units by reflecting on affected patients' pathways from intensive care discharge to readmission. The results will highlight case-specific causes of readmission and potential areas for departmental- and institutional-level improvements.; A root cause analysis approach guided this quality improvement project. The tool's iterative development process included a literature search, a clinical expert panel, and a testing in January and February 2021.; The We-ReAlyse tool guides healthcare professionals to identify areas for quality improvement by reflecting the patient's pathway from the initial intensive care stay to readmission. Ten readmissions were analyzed by using the We-ReAlyse tool, resulting in key insights about possible root causes like the handover process, patient's care needs, the resources on the general unit and the use of different electronic healthcare record systems.; The We-ReAlyse tool provides a visualization/objectification of issues related to intensive care readmissions, gathering data upon which to base quality improvement interventions. Based on the information on how multi-level risk profiles and knowledge deficits contribute to readmission rates, nurses can target specific quality improvements to reduce those rates.; With the We-ReAlyse tool, we have the opportunity to collect detailed information about ICU readmissions for an in-depth analysis. This will allow health professionals in all involved departments to discuss and either correct or cope with the identified issues. In the long term, this will allow continuous, concerted efforts to reduce and prevent ICU readmissions. To obtain more data for analysis and to further refine and simplify the tool, it may be applied to larger samples of ICU readmissions. Furthermore, to test its generalizability, the tool should be applied to patients from other departments and other hospitals. Adapting it to an electronic version would facilitate the timely and comprehensive collection of necessary information. Finally, the tool's emphasis comprises reflecting on and analyzing ICU readmissions, allowing clinicians to develop interventions targeting the identified problems. Therefore, future research in this area will require the development and evaluation of potential interventions

Scalable and accurate deep learning for electronic health records

Predictive modeling with electronic health record (EHR) data is anticipated to drive personalized medicine and improve healthcare quality. Constructing predictive statistical models typically requires extraction of curated predictor variables from normalized EHR data, a labor-intensive process that discards the vast majority of information in each patient's record. We propose a representation of patients' entire, raw EHR records based on the Fast Healthcare Interoperability Resources (FHIR) format. We demonstrate that deep learning methods using this representation are capable of accurately predicting multiple medical events from multiple centers without site-specific data harmonization. We validated our approach using de-identified EHR data from two U.S. academic medical centers with 216,221 adult patients hospitalized for at least 24 hours. In the sequential format we propose, this volume of EHR data unrolled into a total of 46,864,534,945 data points, including clinical notes. Deep learning models achieved high accuracy for tasks such as predicting in-hospital mortality (AUROC across sites 0.93-0.94), 30-day unplanned readmission (AUROC 0.75-0.76), prolonged length of stay (AUROC 0.85-0.86), and all of a patient's final discharge diagnoses (frequency-weighted AUROC 0.90). These models outperformed state-of-the-art traditional predictive models in all cases. We also present a case-study of a neural-network attribution system, which illustrates how clinicians can gain some transparency into the predictions. We believe that this approach can be used to create accurate and scalable predictions for a variety of clinical scenarios, complete with explanations that directly highlight evidence in the patient's chart.Comment: Published version from https://www.nature.com/articles/s41746-018-0029-