A Review of Traffic Signal Control.

The aim of this paper is to provide a starting point for the future research within the SERC sponsored project "Gating and Traffic Control: The Application of State Space Control Theory". It will provide an introduction to State Space Control Theory, State Space applications in transportation in general, an in-depth review of congestion control (specifically traffic signal control in congested situations), a review of theoretical works, a review of existing systems and will conclude with recommendations for the research to be undertaken within this project

Data Driven Approach To Characterize And Forecast The Impact Of Freeway Work Zones On Mobility Using Probe Vehicle Data

The presence of work zones on freeways causes traffic congestion and creates hazardous conditions for commuters and construction workers. Traffic congestion resulting from work zones causes negative impacts on traffic mobility (delay), the environment (vehicle emissions), and safety when stopped or slowed vehicles become vulnerable to rear-end collisions. Addressing these concerns, a data-driven approach was utilized to develop methodologies to measure, predict, and characterize the impact work zones have on Michigan interstates. This study used probe vehicle data, collected from GPS devices in vehicles, as the primary source for mobility data. This data was used to fulfill three objectives: develop a systematic approach to characterize work zone mobility, predict the impact of future work zones, and develop a business intelligence support system to plan future work zones. Using probe vehicle data, a performance measurement framework was developed to characterize the spatiotemporal impact of work zones using various data visualization techniques. This framework also included summary statistics of mobility performance for each individual work zone. The result was a Work Zone Mobility Audit (WZMA) template which summarizes metrics into a two-page summary which can be utilized for further monitoring and diagnostics of the mobility impact. A machine learning framework was developed to learn from historical projects and predict the spatiotemporal impact of future work zones on mobility. This approach utilized Random Forest, XGBoost, and Artificial Neural Network classification algorithms to determine the traffic speed range for highway segments while having freeway lane-closures. This framework used a distribution of speed for each freeway segment, as a substitute for hourly traffic volume, and were able to predict speed ranges for future scenarios with up to 85% accuracy. The ANN model reached up to 88% accuracy predicting queueing condition (speed less than 20 mph), which could be utilized to enhance queue warning systems and improve the overall safety and mobility. Mobility data for more than 1,700 historical work zone projects in state of Michigan were assessed to provide a comprehensive overview of the overall impact and significant factors affecting the mobility. A Business Intelligence (BI) approach was utilized to analyze these work zones and present actionable information which helps work zone mobility executives make informed decisions while planning their future work zones. The Pareto principle was also utilized to identify significant projects which accounted for a majority of the overall impact. Chi-square Automatic Interaction Detector, CHAID, algorithm was also applied to discover the relationship between variables affecting the mobility. This statistical method built several decision-trees which could be utilized to determine best, worst, and expected consequence of different work zone strategies

Machine Learning Approaches for Traffic Flow Forecasting

Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) as a field has emerged quite rapidly in the recent years. A competitive solution coupled with big data gathered for ITS applications needs the latest AI to drive the ITS for the smart and effective public transport planning and management. Although there is a strong need for ITS applications like Advanced Route Planning (ARP) and Traffic Control Systems (TCS) to take the charge and require the minimum of possible human interventions. This thesis develops the models that can predict the traffic link flows on a junction level such as road traffic flows for a freeway or highway road for all traffic conditions. The research first reviews the state-of-the-art time series data prediction techniques with a deep focus in the field of transport Engineering along with the existing statistical and machine leaning methods and their applications for the freeway traffic flow prediction. This review setup a firm work focussed on the view point to look for the superiority in term of prediction performance of individual statistical or machine learning models over another. A detailed theoretical attention has been given, to learn the structure and working of individual chosen prediction models, in relation to the traffic flow data. In modelling the traffic flows from the real-world Highway England (HE) gathered dataset, a traffic flow objective function for highway road prediction models is proposed in a 3-stage framework including the topological breakdown of traffic network into virtual patches, further into nodes and to the basic links flow profiles behaviour estimations. The proposed objective function is tested with ten different prediction models including the statistical, shallow and deep learning constructed hybrid models for bi-directional links flow prediction methods. The effectiveness of the proposed objective function greatly enhances the accuracy of traffic flow prediction, regardless of the machine learning model used. The proposed prediction objective function base framework gives a new approach to model the traffic network to better understand the unknown traffic flow waves and the resulting congestions caused on a junction level. In addition, the results of applied Machine Learning models indicate that RNN variant LSTMs based models in conjunction with neural networks and Deep CNNs, when applied through the proposed objective function, outperforms other chosen machine learning methods for link flow predictions. The experimentation based practical findings reveal that to arrive at an efficient, robust, offline and accurate prediction model apart from feeding the ML mode with the correct representation of the network data, attention should be paid to the deep learning model structure, data pre-processing (i.e. normalisation) and the error matrices used for data behavioural learning. The proposed framework, in future can be utilised to address one of the main aims of the smart transport systems i.e. to reduce the error rates in network wide congestion predictions and the inflicted general traffic travel time delays in real-time

Vehicle-based modelling of traffic . Theory and application to environmental impact modelling

This dissertation addresses vehicle-based approaches to traffic flow modelling. Having regard to the inherent dynamic nature of traffic, the investigations are mainly focused on the question, how this is captured by different model classes. In the first part, the dynamics of a microscopic car-following model (SKM), presented in, is studied by means of computer simulations and analytical calculations. A classification of the model's behaviour is given with respect to the stability of high-flow states and the outflow from jam. The effects of anticipatory driving on the model's dynamics is explored, yielding results valid in general for this model class. In the second part, a new approach is introduced based on queueing theory. It can be regarded as a microscopic implementation of a state-dependent queueing model, using coupled queues where the service rates additionally depend on the conditions downstream. The concept is shown to reproduce the dynamics of free flow and wide-moving jams. This is demonstrated by comparison with the SKM and real world measurements. An analytical treatment is given as well. The phenomena of boundary induced phase transitions is further addressed, giving the complete phase diagrams of both models. Finally, the application of the queueing approach within simulation-based traffic assignment is demonstrated in regard to environmental impact modelling

Exploiting user contention to optimize proactive resource allocation in future networks

In order to provide ubiquitous communication, seamless connectivity is now required in all environments including highly mobile networks. By using vertical handover techniques it is possible to provide uninterrupted communication as connections are dynamically switched between wireless networks as users move around. However, in a highly mobile environment, traditional reactive approaches to handover are inadequate. Therefore, proactive handover techniques, in which mobile nodes attempt to determine the best time and place to handover to local networks, are actively being investigated in the context of next generation mobile networks. The Y-Comm Framework which looks at proactive handover techniques has de�fined two key parameters: Time Before Handover and the Network Dwell Time, for any given network topology. Using this approach, it is possible to enhance resource management in common networks using probabilistic mechanisms because it is now possible to express contention for resources in terms of: No Contention, Partial Contention and Full Contention. As network resources are shared between many users, resource management must be a key part of any communication system as it is needed to provide seamless communication and to ensure that applications and servers receive their required Quality-of-Service. In this thesis, the contention for channel resources being allocated to mobile nodes is analysed. The work presents a new methodology to support proactive resource allocation for emerging future networks such as Vehicular Ad-Hoc Networks (VANETs) by allowing us to calculate the probability of contention based on user demand of network resources. These results are veri�ed using simulation. In addition, this proactive approach is further enhanced by the use of a contention queue to detect contention between incoming requests and those waiting for service. This thesis also presents a new methodology to support proactive resource allocation for future networks such as Vehicular Ad-Hoc Networks. The proposed approach has been applied to a vehicular testbed and results are presented that show that this approach can improve overall network performance in mobile heterogeneous environments. The results show that the analysis of user contention does provide a proactive mechanism to improve the performance of resource allocation in mobile networks

Uncertain demand prediction for guaranteed automated vehicle fleet performance

Mobility-on-demand (MoD) services offer a convenient and efficient transportation option, using technology to replace traditional modes. However, the flexibility of MoD services also presents challenges in controlling the system. One of the major issues is supply-demand imbalance, caused by uneven stochastic travel demand. To address this, it is crucial to predict the network behavior and proactively adapt to future travel demand.In this thesis, we present a stochastic model predictive controller (SMPC) that accounts for uncertainties in travel demand predictions. Our method make use of Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) to estimate passenger travel demand and predict time patterns with uncertainty bounds. The SMPC integrates these demand predictions into a receding horizon MoD optimization and uses a probabilistic constraining method with a user-defined confidence interval to guarantee constraint satisfaction. This result in a Chance Constrained Model Predictive Control (CCMPC) solution. Our approach has two benefits: incorporating travel demand uncertainty into the MoD optimization and the ability to relax the solution into a simpler Mixed-Integer Linear Program (MILP). Our simulation results demonstrate that this method reduces median customer wait time by 4% compared to using only the mean prediction from GPR. By adjusting the confidence bound, near-optimal performance can be achieved