Dropout Prediction: A Systematic Literature Review

Dropout predicting is challenging analysis process which requires appropriate approaches to address the dropout. Existing approaches are applied in different areas such as education, telecommunications, retail, social networks, and banking services. The goal is to identify customers in the risk of dropout to support retention strategies. This research developed a systematic literature review to evaluate the development of existing studies to predict dropout using machine learning, following the guidelines recommended by Kitchenham and Peterson. The systematic review followed three phases planning, conducting, and reporting. The selection of the most relevant articles was based on the use of Active Systematic Review tool using artificial intelligence algorithms. The criteria identified 28 articles and several research lines where identified. Dropout is a transversal problem for several sectors of economic activity, where it can be taken countermeasures before it happens if detected early

Measuring churner influence on pre-paid subscribers using fuzzy logic

In the last decades, mobile phones have become the major medium for communication between humans. The site effect is the loss of subscribers. Consequently, Telecoms operators invest in developing algorithms for quantifying the risk to churn and to influence other subscribers to churn. The objective is to prioritize the retention of subscribers in their network due to the cost of obtaining a new subscriber is four times more expensive than retaining subscribers. Hence, we use Extremely Random Forest to classify churners and non-churners obtaining a Lift value at 10% of 5.5. Then, we rely on graph-based measures such as Degree of Centrality and Page rank to measure emitted and received influence in the social network of the carrier. Our methodology allows summarising churn risk score, relying on a Fuzzy Logic system, combining the churn probability and the risk of the churner to leave the network with other subscriber

Utjecaj društvene mreže na odljev korisnika u mobilnim mrežama

As the telecommunications sector has reached its mature stage, maintaining existing users has become crucial for service providers. Analyzing the call data records, it is possible to observe their users in the context of social network and obtain additional insights about the spread of influence among interconnected users, which is relevant to churn. In this paper, we examine the communication patterns of mobile phone users and subscription plan logs. Our goal is to use a simple model to predict which users are most likely to churn, solely by observing each user\u27s social network, which is formed by outgoing calls, and churn among their neighbors. To measure the importance of social network parameters with regard to churn prediction, we compare three models: spatial classification, regression model, and artificial neural networks. For each subscriber, we observe three social network parameters, the number of neighbors that have churned, the number of calls to these neighbors, and the duration of these calls for different time periods. The results indicate that using only one or two of these parameters yields results that are comparable or better than the complex models with large amounts of individual and/or social network input parameters that other researchers have proposed.Kako je telekomunikacijski sektor dosegao zreli stadij, zadržavanje postojećih korisnika od ključne je važnosti za pružatelje telekomunikacijskih usluga. Analizom liste poziva moguće je nadzirati korisnike u kontekstu društvene mreže i dobiti dodatni uvid u širenje utjecaja među povezanim korisnicima, što je relevantno za odljev korisnika. U ovom radu razmatramo obrasce komunikacije korisnika mobilnih mreža i podatke o planu pretplate. Naš cilj je korištenjem jednostavnog modela predvidjeti koji korisnici su najskloniji prijelazu na drugu mrežu, pritom koristeći samo korisnikovu društvenu mrežu koja se formira odlaznim pozivima i prijelazima između mreža njihovih susjeda. S ciljem mjerenja važnosti pojedinog parametra društvene mreže za predikciju prelaska na drugu mrežu uspoređena su tri modela: prostorna klasifikacija, regresijski model i model neuronske mreže. Za svakog pretplatnika razmatramo tri parametra društvene mreže: broj susjeda koji su promijenili mrežu, broj poziva prema njima kao i trajanje spomenutih poziva u različitim vremenskim razdobljima. Rezultati pokazuju kako se korištenjem samo jednog ili dva od navedenih parametara društvene mreže postižu rezultati koji su usporedivi ili bolji od rezultata složenijih modela drugih autora koji koriste veliki broj osobnih parametara i/ili parametara društvene mreže

Customer value assessment of Sichuan Mobile

The present research aims to contribute with the evaluation and a segmentation index criterion of the customer group value in order to improve knowledge to the telecommunication industry, in value assessment and in market subdivision based on customer value. This thesis gives practical instrument measure and guiding suggestions to a deeper customer value assessment, combining characteristics of the communication industry in China, based on outstanding domestic and foreign research results and taking the group customers of China Mobile Sichuan Company. A first brief crossing between theoretical backgrounds of customer value assessment, segmentation concept and group customer, allowed the selection and choices of the methodology and the variables that influence group customer value. The following empirical step complemented the development of the assessment index system to calculate the group customer value and the following cluster analysis. The results obtained included the industry experts' experience, which help the identification of the 14 factors that influence the group customer value and the data analysis from 2000 group customers, which has been extracted from the mobile BOSS system. Factor analysis and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method are used to calculate weights of indexes. Finally, based on current value, potential value, social value and the total value, clusters with typical characteristics are discovered using K-means clustering method. And corresponding marketing strategy is put forward.Esta tese avalia o Valor de grupos de clientes, no âmbito da grande empresa chinesa de telecomunicações móveis, a Sichuan Mobile. O presente estudo contribui para a análise da avaliação e segmentação de grupos de clientes, nomeadamente no mercado das telecomunicações. Este, sugere, ainda, um instrumento prático de medida; um índice de medida do valor de grupo de clientes é proposto e construído com base em análise de dados secundários do sector e do mercado chinês e primários baseados opiniões de peritos do sector e de resposta a um inquérito dos grupos de clientes da China Mobile. Após uma breve revisão do enquadramento teórico de conceitos inseridos na Gestão do Marketing, como Valor do Cliente, Segmentação e cliente-grupo, foram analisadas e seleccionadas as opções metodológicas e as variáveis que podem influenciar a avaliação do valor de um grupo de clientes. O desenvolvimento do índice de ponderação do valor de grupo de clientes foi elaborado após vários passos. Em primeiro lugar foram identificados, junto de peritos do sector, 14 factores que influenciam a avaliação do valor de grupo de clientes; Depois, efectuou-se um inquérito a 2000 grupos de clientes, retirados do sistema móvel BOSS da empresa Sichuan Mobile. Por fim realizou-se à base de dados obtida análises estatísticas como Análise Factorial e de Hierarquia (AHP), métodos que permitiram obter a ponderação do índice. Finalmente, com base no índice de valor corrente, valor potencial, valor social e valor total foram identificados os clusters. A análise destes clusters permitiu ainda sugerir estratégias de marketing em adaptação a cada cluster

Applying data mining in telecommunications

This thesis applies data mining in commercial settings in the telecommunications industry. The research for this thesis has been performed at T-Mobile Netherlands B.V. and the methods described in some of the chapters have been also applied in Deutsche Telekom subsidiaries in other countries. We had a rare opportunity to work on real commercial data sets and have the results of our research deployed in practice. Throughout this thesis we describe some of the challenges that data miners (or data scientists) meet when working on business problems and our solutions to these problems. The complex data sets we were analyzing contained in certain cases millions of records. In this research we were using simple methods combined in innovative ways to achieve results that were either an improvement on how the business was previously solving these problems or solving important business problems that were not addressed before in such detail. We address the stages of CRISP-DM (CRoss Industry Standard Process for Data Mining), and our main focus is on the stages least covered in literature.T-Mobile Netherlands B.V.Algorithms and the Foundations of Software technolog

How to improve customer retention and lifetime value on subscription-based models: In company project with "The Bam and Boo" toothbrush

The present In-Company project aims to study how subscription-based business models can improve their retention and customers lifetime value. This project was made in collaboration with ‘The Bam and Boo’ Toothbrush, a Portuguese brand bamboo toothbrushes subscription service that is in the market since June 2017 and currently accounts with more than 22.000 active subscribers. To achieve these project results we have used quantitative data from the company database reports, and qualitative data collected on a focus group session with a group of participants that resembles the brand’s target. From this data we were able to trigger some critical stages of retention and consumption patterns, and valuable insights regarding consumers behaviors and purchase profiles. Some of the critical questions that needed to be answered were related to – understand the moment of customers churns, which are the motives that led customers to make this action, and how is the company able to improve its customers lifetime and value. We present solutions on areas such as Communication, Customer Relationship Management, Product, and Organizational Strategy, in order to improve the company retention rates and overall results. For that the company should consider delivering a more personalized service and content to its customers, run a stronger email marketing strategy, rethink its portfolio, and share the company values and mission with its community.O presente projeto-empresa visa estudar de que forma conseguimos melhorar a retenção e o valor dos clientes em modelos de subscrição. Este projeto foi realizado em colaboração com a empresa 'The Bam and Boo', um serviço de subscrição de escovas de dentes de bambu. A marca portuguesa está no mercado desde Junho, 2017 e atualmente conta com mais de 22.000 subscritores ativos. De forma a alcançar os resultados propostos neste projeto recorremos a dados quantitativos, obtidos através da base de dados de clientes da empresa, e dados qualitativos, recolhidos de uma sessão com um grupo focal no qual os participantes representavam o target da marca. Assim, foi-nos possível detetar pontos críticos em relação aos padrões e comportamento dos consumidores, e os seus perfis de compra. As questões principais que pretendemos responder neste projeto são – compreender o momento em que os clientes desistem das suas subscrições, por que motivos o fazem e de que forma a marca pode aumentar o valor e a retenção dos seus clientes. Apresentamos soluções em áreas como – comunicação, gestão e relacionamento com os clientes, produto e estratégia da organização; com o fim de melhorar as taxas de retenção e os resultados da empresa como um todo. Para isso, a empresa deve reconsiderar algumas das suas políticas e oferecer um serviço mais personalizado e diversificado aos seus clientes, montar uma estratégia de email marketing mais forte, reconsiderar o seu portfólio de produtos, e a forma de partilha dos seus valores e missão com a sua comunidade

Effects of Customer Experience Management on customer churn in the Telco industry in Kenya

A Thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the award of the Degree of Masters of Business Administration at Strathmore University Business SchoolThe primary objective of the study was to examine the effects of customer experience management on customer churn in the Telco Industry in Kenya. The specific objectives were: to determine the effect of social environment on mitigation of customer churn in the Telco Industry, to examine the effects of service interface on mitigation of customer churn in the Telco Industry, to ascertain the effect of retail environment on mitigation of customer churn in the Telco Industry and to determine the effect of price on mitigation of customer churn in the Telco Industry. The study adopted a survey based descriptive design. The study sample size was 195 staff from the Telco Company’s selected using stratified random sampling. Data was analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis. The results were presented using percentages, graphs and tabulations. The study found that social environment had significant positive relationship with mitigation of customer churn in the Telco Industry; service interface had significant positive relationship with mitigation of customer churn in the Telco Industry; retail atmosphere had significant positive relationship with mitigation of customer churn in the Telco Industry and price had significant negative relationship with mitigation of customer churn in the Telco Industry. The study recommends management of Telco industries to have in place diffusion process that exploits social influences affecting customer churn; management of the Telco industries should improve the quality of their customer interface and this includes customization, interaction, convenience and character, and this will contribute significantly in improving loyalty. The study also recommends the management of the Telco companies to improve the atmosphere of their companies by improving the design of their offices ensuring that it’s appealing to its customers. The study also recommends the management of the companies to develop plans that are price friendly to its customers; they can also have regular promotions that will motivate their costumers to stick to their brand

A framework for determining the adoption of new services in the South African mobile telecommunications market

Abstract in English, Afrikaans and ZuluThe aim of this study was to determine the key factors which explain the adoption of mobile data services in South Africa and incorporate them into an explanatory framework that can be used to indicate whether a new mobile data service that is introduced into the South African Mobile Market will be successful. Additionally, it shows that the current usage of mobile data services in South Africa supports the framework. The research used a design based on a mixed methods methodology. The research was conducted using a literature survey and two research phases. The literature survey was an extensive review of communication technology adoption frameworks and all the possible factors of adoption. This literature survey was also used to develop the discussion document which was used as the guidelines for the Phase 1 interviews. The interviews were with experts in the telecommunications market in South Africa and were used to determine the key drivers of adoption and possible moderating factors of mobile data services. From those interviews a preliminary model was proposed. Phase 2 was a market survey which tested the framework and moderating factors in different metropolitan areas as well as examined the current usage of mobile data services. The statistical analysis used in determining the framework incorporated Descriptive Statistics, Factor Analysis, using Principal Axis Factoring, and Structural Equation Modelling. The framework, which was based on the Technology Acceptance Model, introduced two new constructs. The first new construct was the Mobile Service Providers Marketing Tactics and the second was Social Pressure and Aspirational Value. The two constructs combined can be used to explain why mobile service providers with low cost strategies are not successful. Demographic factors such as Age were found to influence the adoption as well as Socio-economic factors such as Income. Personal factors such as Technical Knowledge, Ability and Skills and Attitude towards Technology were also found to influence adoption. Geographical location was found to be the most important moderating factor. The current mobile data usage supported the framework. The results of data usage highlighted the fact that nearly 50% of the study’s participants spent over 4 hours per day interacting with their mobile devices and that the participants from Gauteng spent more than 2½ times on mobile services than those in the other metropolitan municipalities of Cape Town and eThekwiniDie doel van hierdie studie was om die sleutelfaktore te bepaal wat die aanneming van selfoondatadienste in Suid-Afrika verklaar, en hulle te verenig in ʼn raamwerk waarmee aangetoon kan word of ʼn nuwe selfoondatadiens die Suid-Afrikaanse selfoondatamark suksesvol sal betree. Afgesien hiervan dui hierdie studie aan dat die huidige gebruik van selfoondatadienste in Suid-Afrika die geldigheid van die voorgestelde raamwerk bevestig. ʼn Mengsel van metodes is in die navorsing toegepas. Die navorsing het uit ʼn literatuuroorsig en twee navorsingsfases bestaan. Die literatuuroorsig het ʼn deurtastende oorsig van die raamwerke vir die aanneming van kommunikasietegnologie en alle moontlike faktore daarvoor behels. Uit die literatuuroorsig is die besprekingsdokument saamgestel wat as riglyn gedien het vir die onderhoude in fase 1 van die navorsing. Onderhoude is met kundiges uit die Suid-Afrikaanse telekommunikasiebedryf gevoer om die belangrikste dryfvere vir aanneming en moontlike remfaktore ten opsigte van selfoondatadienste te bepaal. ʼn Voorlopige model is op grond van die onderhoude aangebied. Fase 2 het ʼn markopname behels waarin die raamwerk en remfaktore in verskeie metropolitaanse gebiede getoets en die huidige gebruik van selfoondatadienste ondersoek is. Die statistiese analise waarop die raamwerk berus, het bestaan uit beskrywende statistiek, faktorontleding met behulp van hoofasfaktorering, en struktuurvergelykingsmodellering. Twee nuwe konstrukte het uit die raamwerk wat op die tegnologieaanvaardingsmodel gegrond was, gespruit. Die eerste was selfoondiensverskaffers se bemarkingstrategieë en die tweede sosiale druk en aspirerende waarde. Saam verklaar die twee konstrukte waarom selfoondiensverskaffers wat laekostestrategieë volg, misluk. Daar is bevind dat demografiese faktore soos ouderdom, en sosiaal-ekonomiese faktore soos inkomste, aanneming beïnvloed. Volgens die bevindings word aanneming eweneens bepaal deur persoonlike faktore soos tegniese kennis, vermoë en vaardighede asook houding jeens tegnologie. Daar is bevind dat geografiese ligging die belangrikste remfaktor is. Die huidige selfoondatagebruik bevestig die geldigheid van die raamwerk. Die uitslag van datagebruik benadruk die feit dat byna 50% van die deelnemers aan die studie langer as vier uur per dag met hulle selfone doenig is, en dat deelnemers in Gauteng twee en half keer meer as deelnemers in die metropolitaanse munisipaliteite van Kaapstad en eThekwini aan selfoondienste bestee.Inhloso yalolu cwaningo bekuwukuthola izinto ezibalulekile ezichaza ukwamukelwa kwezinsiza zamadatha amaselula eNingizimu Afrika nokuzifaka ohlakeni oluchazayo olungasetshenziswa ukukhombisa ukuthi ngabe insiza entsha yedatha ethulwe emakethe yamaselula eNingizimu Afrika izophumelela. Ngaphezu kwalokho, kukhombisa ukuthi ukusetshenziswa kwamanje kwezinsiza zedatha yamaselula eNingizimu Afrika kuyalusekela uhlaka. Ucwaningo lusebenzise umklamu osuselwe ezindleleni zokwenza ezixubile. Ucwaningo lwenziwe kusetshenziswa ucwaningo lwezincwadi kanye nezigaba ezimbili zocwaningo. Ucwaningo lwezincwadi belungukubuyekezwa okubanzi kokwamukela kwenzinhlaka zobuchwepheshe kwezokuxhumana kanye nazo zonke izici ezingenzeka ukuthi zamukelwe. Lolu cwaningo lwezincwadi lusetshenzisiwe futhi ukuthuthukisa umqulu wezingxoxo osetshenziswe njengezinkombandlela zokuxoxisana nabantu besigaba 1. Izingxoxo ebezinazo bezingochwepheshe emakethe yezokuxhumana eNingizimu Afrika futhi zasetshenziselwa ukuthola izidingongqangi zokwamukelwa kanye nezici zokulingisanisa kwezinsiza zamadatha amaselula. Kulezo zingxoxo, kuphakanyiswe isifaniselo sokuqala. Isigaba 2 bekungukucwaningo lwezimakethe oluhlola uhlaka kanye nezici zokulinganisa ezindaweni ezahlukahlukene zedolobha kanye nokuhlola ukusetshenziswa kwamanje kwezinsiza zedatha yamaselula. Ukuhlaziywa kwezibalo okusetshenzisiwe ekunqumeni uhlaka lufake izibalo ezichazayo, ukuhlaziya izakhi, kusetshenziswa izisekelo eziyinhloko zokuphamba, kanye nesifaniselo sokulinganisa esihlelekile. Uhlaka, olwalususelwa kusifaniselo sokwamukela ubuchwepheshe, lwethule izakhiwo ezimbili ezintsha. Isakhiwo esisha sokuqala kwakungamacebo wokukhangisa wabahlinzeki bezinsiza zamaselula futhi owesibili kwakuyingcindezi yomphakathi nenani lesifiso. Lezi zakhiwo zombili ezihlanganisiwe zingasetshenziswa ukuchaza ukuthi kungani abahlinzeki bezinsizakalo zamaselula abanamasu ezindleko eziphansi bengaphumeleli. Izici ezithinta abantu ezinjengobudala zitholakele ukuthonya ukwamukelwa kanye nezici zezomnotho nezenhlalo ezifana nomholo. Izici ezithinta umuntu ngqo ezifana nolwazi lwezobuchwepheshe, ukwazi ukwenza kanye namakhono, nesimo sengqondo maqondana nezobuchwepheshe zatholakala zithonya ukwamukelwa. Indawo yendawo yatholakala njengesici sokulinganisa esibaluleke kakhulu. Ukusetshenziswa kwedatha yeselula yamanje kusekele uhlaka. Imiphumela yokusetshenziswa kwedatha igcizelele iqiniso lokuthi bacishe babe ngama-50% ababambe iqhaza kulolu cwaningo bachithe isikhathi esingaphezu kwamahora amane ngosuku bexhumana nemishini yabo yamaselula nokuthi ababambiqhaza abavela eGauteng bachithe izikhathi ezingaphezu kwezingu-2½ kuzinsiza zamaselula kunalabo bakwamanye amadolobha amakhulu aseKapa naseThekwini.Business ManagementD.B.L

The use of mobile phones by Generation Y students at two universities in the city of Johannesburg

The main purpose of this study was to examine the use of mobile phones by Generation Y students in the city of Johannesburg in order to increase understanding of this segment's consumer behaviour. Generation Y is an important market segment in that it is making more independent purchase-related decisions and has a large amount of disposable income. The primary data for this study is based on focus group interviews and a quantitative study of a sample of 200 Generation Y tertiary students. Some of the findings are as follows: * Generation Y's use of mobile phones: Generation Y respondents have owned a mobile phone for between three to five years; the majority own Nokia mobile phones, are on prepaid packages and are not big spenders on airtime; furthermore, SMS is seen as the most cost-effective way to communicate. * Competition in the mobile phone market: The perceptions of this segment are that Vodacom is the "cool" operator, MTN is the most "expensive" network operator and Cell C is "cheap and youthful". * Mobile phone brand awareness: Nokia was the most cited brand of mobile phone and was found to be the first choice of many of the respondents. Samsung was reported as the second most cited brand with Motorola, Siemens and Sony Ericsson following. The results have implications for network providers, handset manufacturers and marketers alike as they will ultimately improve these stakeholder's chances of marketing effectively to this dynamic youth market.Business ManagementM. Comm. (Business Management

Customer Relationship Management : Concept, Strategy, and Tools -3/E

Customer relationship management (CRM) as a strategy and as a technology has gone through an amazing evolutionary journey. After the initial technological approaches, this process has matured considerably – both from a conceptual and from an applications point of view. Of course this evolution continues, especially in the light of the digital transformation. Today, CRM refers to a strategy, a set of tactics, and a technology that has become indispensable in the modern economy. Based on both authors’ rich academic and managerial experience, this book gives a unified treatment of the strategic and tactical aspects of customer relationship management as we know it today. It stresses developing an understanding of economic customer value as the guiding concept for marketing decisions. The goal of this book is to be a comprehensive and up-to-date learning companion for advanced undergraduate students, master students, and executives who want a detailed and conceptually sound insight into the field of CRM