Supervised Machine Learning Under Test-Time Resource Constraints: A Trade-off Between Accuracy and Cost

The past decade has witnessed how the field of machine learning has established itself as a necessary component in several multi-billion-dollar industries. The real-world industrial setting introduces an interesting new problem to machine learning research: computational resources must be budgeted and cost must be strictly accounted for during test-time. A typical problem is that if an application consumes x additional units of cost during test-time, but will improve accuracy by y percent, should the additional x resources be allocated? The core of this problem is a trade-off between accuracy and cost. In this thesis, we examine components of test-time cost, and develop different strategies to manage this trade-off. We first investigate test-time cost and discover that it typically consists of two parts: feature extraction cost and classifier evaluation cost. The former reflects the computational efforts of transforming data instances to feature vectors, and could be highly variable when features are heterogeneous. The latter reflects the effort of evaluating a classifier, which could be substantial, in particular nonparametric algorithms. We then propose three strategies to explicitly trade-off accuracy and the two components of test-time cost during classifier training. To budget the feature extraction cost, we first introduce two algorithms: GreedyMiser and Anytime Representation Learning (AFR). GreedyMiser employs a strategy that incorporates the extraction cost information during classifier training to explicitly minimize the test-time cost. AFR extends GreedyMiser to learn a cost-sensitive feature representation rather than a classifier, and turns traditional Support Vector Machines (SVM) into test- time cost-sensitive anytime classifiers. GreedyMiser and AFR are evaluated on two real-world data sets from two different application domains, and both achieve record performance. We then introduce Cost Sensitive Tree of Classifiers (CSTC) and Cost Sensitive Cascade of Classifiers (CSCC), which share a common strategy that trades-off the accuracy and the amortized test-time cost. CSTC introduces a tree structure and directs test inputs along different tree traversal paths, each is optimized for a specific sub-partition of the input space, extracting different, specialized subsets of features. CSCC extends CSTC and builds a linear cascade, instead of a tree, to cope with class-imbalanced binary classification tasks. Since both CSTC and CSCC extract different features for different inputs, the amortized test-time cost is greatly reduced while maintaining high accuracy. Both approaches out-perform the current state-of-the-art on real-world data sets. To trade-off accuracy and high classifier evaluation cost of nonparametric classifiers, we propose a model compression strategy and develop Compressed Vector Machines (CVM). CVM focuses on the nonparametric kernel Support Vector Machines (SVM), whose test-time evaluation cost is typically substantial when learned from large training sets. CVM is a post-processing algorithm which compresses the learned SVM model by reducing and optimizing support vectors. On several benchmark data sets, CVM maintains high test accuracy while reducing the test-time evaluation cost by several orders of magnitude

Understanding and Adapting Tree Ensembles: A Training Data Perspective

Despite the impressive success of deep-learning models on unstructured data (e.g., images, audio, text), tree-based ensembles such as random forests and gradient-boosted trees are hugely popular and remain the preferred choice for tabular or structured data, and are regularly used to win challenges on data-competition websites such as Kaggle and DrivenData. Despite their impressive predictive performance, tree-based ensembles lack certain characteristics which may limit their further adoption, especially for safety-critical or privacy-sensitive domains such as weather forecasting or predictive medical modeling. This dissertation investigates the shortcomings currently facing tree-based ensembles---lack of explainable predictions, limited uncertainty estimation, and inefficient adaptability to changes in the training data---and posits that numerous improvements to tree-based ensembles can be made by analyzing the relationships between the training data and the resulting learned model. By studying the effects of one or many training examples on tree-based ensembles, we develop solutions for these models which (1) increase their predictive explainability, (2) provide accurate uncertainty estimates for individual predictions, and (3) efficiently adapt learned models to accurately reflect updated training data. This dissertation includes previously published coauthored material

Gradient boosting in automatic machine learning: feature selection and hyperparameter optimization

Das Ziel des automatischen maschinellen Lernens (AutoML) ist es, alle Aspekte der Modellwahl in prädiktiver Modellierung zu automatisieren. Diese Arbeit beschäftigt sich mit Gradienten Boosting im Kontext von AutoML mit einem Fokus auf Gradient Tree Boosting und komponentenweisem Boosting. Beide Techniken haben eine gemeinsame Methodik, aber ihre Zielsetzung ist unterschiedlich. Während Gradient Tree Boosting im maschinellen Lernen als leistungsfähiger Vorhersagealgorithmus weit verbreitet ist, wurde komponentenweises Boosting im Rahmen der Modellierung hochdimensionaler Daten entwickelt. Erweiterungen des komponentenweisen Boostings auf multidimensionale Vorhersagefunktionen werden in dieser Arbeit ebenfalls untersucht. Die Herausforderung der Hyperparameteroptimierung wird mit Fokus auf Bayesianische Optimierung und effiziente Stopping-Strategien diskutiert. Ein groß angelegter Benchmark über Hyperparameter verschiedener Lernalgorithmen, zeigt den kritischen Einfluss von Hyperparameter Konfigurationen auf die Qualität der Modelle. Diese Daten können als Grundlage für neue AutoML- und Meta-Lernansätze verwendet werden. Darüber hinaus werden fortgeschrittene Strategien zur Variablenselektion zusammengefasst und eine neue Methode auf Basis von permutierten Variablen vorgestellt. Schließlich wird ein AutoML-Ansatz vorgeschlagen, der auf den Ergebnissen und Best Practices für die Variablenselektion und Hyperparameteroptimierung basiert. Ziel ist es AutoML zu vereinfachen und zu stabilisieren sowie eine hohe Vorhersagegenauigkeit zu gewährleisten. Dieser Ansatz wird mit AutoML-Methoden, die wesentlich komplexere Suchräume und Ensembling Techniken besitzen, verglichen. Vier Softwarepakete für die statistische Programmiersprache R sind Teil dieser Arbeit, die neu entwickelt oder erweitert wurden: mlrMBO: Ein generisches Paket für die Bayesianische Optimierung; autoxgboost: Ein AutoML System, das sich vollständig auf Gradient Tree Boosting fokusiert; compboost: Ein modulares, in C++ geschriebenes Framework für komponentenweises Boosting; gamboostLSS: Ein Framework für komponentenweises Boosting additiver Modelle für Location, Scale und Shape.The goal of automatic machine learning (AutoML) is to automate all aspects of model selection in (supervised) predictive modeling. This thesis deals with gradient boosting techniques in the context of AutoML with a focus on gradient tree boosting and component-wise gradient boosting. Both techniques have a common methodology, but their goal is quite different. While gradient tree boosting is widely used in machine learning as a powerful prediction algorithm, component-wise gradient boosting strength is in feature selection and modeling of high-dimensional data. Extensions of component-wise gradient boosting to multidimensional prediction functions are considered as well. Focusing on Bayesian optimization and efficient early stopping strategies the challenge of hyperparameter optimization for these algorithms is discussed. Difficulty in the optimization of these algorithms is shown by a large scale random search on hyperparameters for machine learning algorithms, that can build the foundation of new AutoML and metalearning approaches. Furthermore, advanced feature selection strategies are summarized and a new method based on shadow features is introduced. Finally, an AutoML approach based on the results and best practices for feature selection and hyperparameter optimization is proposed, with the goal of simplifying and stabilizing AutoML while maintaining high prediction accuracy. This is compared to AutoML approaches using much more complex search spaces and ensembling techniques. Four software packages for the statistical programming language R have been newly developed or extended as a part of this thesis: mlrMBO: A general framework for Bayesian optimization; autoxgboost: An automatic machine learning framework that heavily utilizes gradient tree boosting; compboost: A modular framework for component-wise boosting written in C++; gamboostLSS: A framework for component-wise boosting for generalized additive models for location scale and shape

Predicting Account Receivables Outcomes with Machine-Learning

Project Work presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Information Management, specialization in Knowledge Management and Business IntelligenceThe Account Receivables (AR) of a company are considered an important determinant of a company’s Cash Flow – the backbone of a company’s financial performance or health. It has been proved that by efficiently managing the money owed by customers for goods and services (AR), a company can avoid financial difficulties and even stabilize results in moments of extreme volatility. The aim of this project is to use machine-learning and data visualization techniques to predict invoice outcomes and provide useful information and a solution using analytics to the collection management team. Specifically, this project demonstrates how supervised learning models can classify with high accuracy whether a newly created invoice will be paid earlier, on-time or later than the contracted due date. It is also studied how to predict the magnitude of the delayed payments by classifying them into interesting, delayed categories for the business: up to 1 month late, from 1 to 3 months late and delayed for more than 3 months. The developed models use real-life data from a multinational company in the manufacturing and automation industries and can predict payments with higher accuracy than the baseline achieved by the business

Algorithms for Neural Prosthetic Applications

abstract: In the last 15 years, there has been a significant increase in the number of motor neural prostheses used for restoring limb function lost due to neurological disorders or accidents. The aim of this technology is to enable patients to control a motor prosthesis using their residual neural pathways (central or peripheral). Recent studies in non-human primates and humans have shown the possibility of controlling a prosthesis for accomplishing varied tasks such as self-feeding, typing, reaching, grasping, and performing fine dexterous movements. A neural decoding system comprises mainly of three components: (i) sensors to record neural signals, (ii) an algorithm to map neural recordings to upper limb kinematics and (iii) a prosthetic arm actuated by control signals generated by the algorithm. Machine learning algorithms that map input neural activity to the output kinematics (like finger trajectory) form the core of the neural decoding system. The choice of the algorithm is thus, mainly imposed by the neural signal of interest and the output parameter being decoded. The various parts of a neural decoding system are neural data, feature extraction, feature selection, and machine learning algorithm. There have been significant advances in the field of neural prosthetic applications. But there are challenges for translating a neural prosthesis from a laboratory setting to a clinical environment. To achieve a fully functional prosthetic device with maximum user compliance and acceptance, these factors need to be addressed and taken into consideration. Three challenges in developing robust neural decoding systems were addressed by exploring neural variability in the peripheral nervous system for dexterous finger movements, feature selection methods based on clinically relevant metrics and a novel method for decoding dexterous finger movements based on ensemble methods.Dissertation/ThesisDoctoral Dissertation Bioengineering 201