Risk models and scores for type 2 diabetes: Systematic review

This article is published under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 3.0) licence that allows reuse subject only to the use being non-commercial and to the article being fully attributed (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0).Objective - To evaluate current risk models and scores for type 2 diabetes and inform selection and implementation of these in practice. Design - Systematic review using standard (quantitative) and realist (mainly qualitative) methodology. Inclusion - criteria Papers in any language describing the development or external validation, or both, of models and scores to predict the risk of an adult developing type 2 diabetes. Data sources - Medline, PreMedline, Embase, and Cochrane databases were searched. Included studies were citation tracked in Google Scholar to identify follow-on studies of usability or impact. Data extraction - Data were extracted on statistical properties of models, details of internal or external validation, and use of risk scores beyond the studies that developed them. Quantitative data were tabulated to compare model components and statistical properties. Qualitative data were analysed thematically to identify mechanisms by which use of the risk model or score might improve patient outcomes. Results - 8864 titles were scanned, 115 full text papers considered, and 43 papers included in the final sample. These described the prospective development or validation, or both, of 145 risk prediction models and scores, 94 of which were studied in detail here. They had been tested on 6.88 million participants followed for up to 28 years. Heterogeneity of primary studies precluded meta-analysis. Some but not all risk models or scores had robust statistical properties (for example, good discrimination and calibration) and had been externally validated on a different population. Genetic markers added nothing to models over clinical and sociodemographic factors. Most authors described their score as “simple” or “easily implemented,” although few were specific about the intended users and under what circumstances. Ten mechanisms were identified by which measuring diabetes risk might improve outcomes. Follow-on studies that applied a risk score as part of an intervention aimed at reducing actual risk in people were sparse. Conclusion - Much work has been done to develop diabetes risk models and scores, but most are rarely used because they require tests not routinely available or they were developed without a specific user or clear use in mind. Encouragingly, recent research has begun to tackle usability and the impact of diabetes risk scores. Two promising areas for further research are interventions that prompt lay people to check their own diabetes risk and use of risk scores on population datasets to identify high risk “hotspots” for targeted public health interventions.Tower Hamlets, Newham, and City and Hackney primary care trusts and National Institute of Health Research

Proximal aortic stiffening in Turner patients may be present before dilation can be detected : a segmental functional MRI study

Background: To study segmental structural and functional aortic properties in Turner syndrome (TS) patients. Aortic abnormalities contribute to increased morbidity and mortality of women with Turner syndrome. Cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) allows segmental study of aortic elastic properties. Method: We performed Pulse Wave Velocity (PWV) and distensibility measurements using CMR of the thoracic and abdominal aorta in 55 TS-patients, aged 13-59y, and in a control population (n = 38; 12-58y). We investigated the contribution of TS on aortic stiffness in our entire cohort, in bicuspid (BAV) versus tricuspid (TAV) aortic valve-morphology subgroups, and in the younger and older subgroups. Results: Differences in aortic properties were only seen at the most proximal aortic level. BAV Turner patients had significantly higher PWV, compared to TAV Turner (p = 0.014), who in turn had significantly higher PWV compared to controls (p = 0.010). BAV Turner patients had significantly larger ascending aortic (AA) luminal area and lower AA distensibility compared to both controls (all p < 0.01) and TAV Turner patients. TAV Turner had similar AA luminal areas and AA distensibility compared to Controls. Functional changes are present in younger and older Turner subjects, whereas ascending aortic dilation is prominent in older Turner patients. Clinically relevant dilatation (TAV and BAV) was associated with reduced distensibility. Conclusion: Aortic stiffening and dilation in TS affects the proximal aorta, and is more pronounced, although not exclusively, in BAV TS patients. Functional abnormalities are present at an early age, suggesting an aortic wall disease inherent to the TS. Whether this increased stiffness at young age can predict later dilatation needs to be studied longitudinally

Relationship between blood pressure values, depressive symptoms and cardiovascular outcomes in patients with cardiometabolic disease

We studied joint effect of blood pressure-BP and depression on risk of major adverse cardiovascular outcome in patients with existing cardiometabolic disease. A cohort of 35537 patients with coronary heart disease, diabetes or stroke underwent depression screening and BP was recorded concurrently. We used Cox’s proportional hazards to calculate risk of major adverse cardiovascular event-MACE (myocardial infarction/heart failure/stroke or cardiovascular death) over 4 years associated with baseline BP and depression. 11% (3939) had experienced MACE within 4 years. Patients with very high systolic BP-SBP (160-240) hazard ratio-HR 1.28 and with depression (HR 1.22) at baseline had significantly higher adjusted risk. Depression had significant interaction with SBP in risk prediction (p=0.03). Patients with combination of SBP and depression at baseline had 83% higher adjusted risk of MACE, as compared to patients with reference SBP and without depression. Patients with cardiometabolic disease and comorbid depression may benefit from closer monitoring of SBP

Longitudinal Machine Learning Model for Predicting Systolic Blood Pressure in Patients with Heart Failure

Objective: Systolic blood pressure (SBP) is a powerful prognostic factor in heart failure (HF) patients, which is associated with death and readmission. Therefore, control of blood pressure is an important element for managing these patients. The goal of this study was to compare the performance of classical and machine learning models for predicting SBP and identify important variables related to SBP changes over time. Methods: The information of 483 HF patients was analyzed in this retrospective cohort study. These patients were hospitalized at least twice in Farshchian Heart Center Hamadan province, the west of Iran, between October 2015 and July 2019. We applied a linear mixed-effects model (LMM) and mixed-effects least-square support vector regression (MLS-SVR) for predicting SBP. The performance of both models was assessed by mean absolute error, and root mean squared error. Results: Based on LMM results, there was a significant association between sex, body mass index (BMI), sodium, time, and history of hypertension with SBP changes over time (P-value &lt;0.05). Also, MLS-SVR indicated that the four most important variables were history of hypertension, sodium, BMI, and triglyceride. The performance of MLS-SVR compared to LMM was better in both training and testing datasets. Conclusions: According to our results, BMI, sodium, and history of hypertension were the important variables on SBP changes in both LMM and MLS-SVR models. Also, it seems that MLS-SVR can be used as an alternative for classical longitudinal models for predicting SBP in HF patients

Development and Validation of eRADAR: A Tool Using EHR Data to Detect Unrecognized Dementia.

ObjectivesEarly recognition of dementia would allow patients and their families to receive care earlier in the disease process, potentially improving care management and patient outcomes, yet nearly half of patients with dementia are undiagnosed. Our aim was to develop and validate an electronic health record (EHR)-based tool to help detect patients with unrecognized dementia (EHR Risk of Alzheimer's and Dementia Assessment Rule [eRADAR]).DesignRetrospective cohort study.SettingKaiser Permanente Washington (KPWA), an integrated healthcare delivery system.ParticipantsA total of 16 665 visits among 4330 participants in the Adult Changes in Thought (ACT) study, who undergo a comprehensive process to detect and diagnose dementia every 2 years and have linked KPWA EHR data, divided into development (70%) and validation (30%) samples.MeasurementsEHR predictors included demographics, medical diagnoses, vital signs, healthcare utilization, and medications within the previous 2 years. Unrecognized dementia was defined as detection in ACT before documentation in the KPWA EHR (ie, lack of dementia or memory loss diagnosis codes or dementia medication fills).ResultsOverall, 1015 ACT visits resulted in a diagnosis of incident dementia, of which 498 (49%) were unrecognized in the KPWA EHR. The final 31-predictor model included markers of dementia-related symptoms (eg, psychosis diagnoses, antidepressant fills), healthcare utilization pattern (eg, emergency department visits), and dementia risk factors (eg, cerebrovascular disease, diabetes). Discrimination was good in the development (C statistic = .78; 95% confidence interval [CI] = .76-.81) and validation (C statistic = .81; 95% CI = .78-.84) samples, and calibration was good based on plots of predicted vs observed risk. If patients with scores in the top 5% were flagged for additional evaluation, we estimate that 1 in 6 would have dementia.ConclusionThe eRADAR tool uses existing EHR data to detect patients with good accuracy who may have unrecognized dementia. J Am Geriatr Soc 68:103-111, 2019