Promoting Public Health and Safety: A Predictive Modeling Software Analysis on Perceived Road Fatality Contributory Factors

Extensive literature search was conducted to computationally analyze the relationship between key perceived road fatality factors and public health impacts, in terms of mortality and morbidity. Heterogeneous sources of data on road fatality 1970-2005 and that based on interview questionnaire on European road drivers’ perception were sourced. Computational analysis was performed on these data using the Multilayer Perceptron model within the dtreg predictive modeling software. Driver factors had the highest relative significance. Drivers played significant role as causative agents of road accidents. A good degree of correlation was also observed when compared with results obtained by previous researchers. Sweden, UK, Finland, Denmark, Germany, France, Netherlands, and Austria, where road safety targets were set and EU targets adopted, experienced a faster and sharper reduction of road fatalities. However, Belgium, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Portugal experienced slow, but little reduction in cases of road fatalities. Spain experienced an increase in road fatalities possibly due to road fatalities enhancing factors. Estonia, Slovenia, Cyprus, Hungry, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Poland experienced a fluctuating but decreasing trend. Enforcement of road safety principles and regulations are needed to decrease the incidences of fatal accidents. Adoption of the EU target of -50% reductions of fatalities in all countries will help promote public health and safety

Cape Town road traffic accident analysis: Utilising supervised learning techniques and discussing their effectiveness

[EN] Road traffic accidents (RTA) are a major cause of death and injury around the world. The use of Supervised learning (SL) methods to understand the frequency and injury-severity of RTAs are of utmost importance in designing appropriate interventions. Data on RTAs that occurred in the city of Cape Town during 2015-2017 are used for this study. The data contain the injury-severity (no injury, slight, serious and fatal injury) of the RTAs as well as several accident-related variables. Additional locational and situational variables were added to the dataset. Four training datasets were analysed: the original imbalanced data, data with the minority class over-sampled, data with the majority class under-sampled and data with synthetically created observations. The performance of different SL methods were compared using accuracy, recall, precision and F1 score evaluation metrics and based on the average recall the ANN was selected as the best performing model on the validation data.Du Toit, C.; Salau, S.; Er, S. (2022). Cape Town road traffic accident analysis: Utilising supervised learning techniques and discussing their effectiveness. En 4th International Conference on Advanced Research Methods and Analytics (CARMA 2022). Editorial Universitat Politècnica de València. 57-64. https://doi.org/10.4995/CARMA2022.2022.15041576

Factors influencing outcomes of severely injured children in a South African context

A research report submitted to the Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Medicine in the branch of Paediatrics Johannesburg 2017.INTRODUCTION Paediatric trauma is a significant health burden and a leading cause of death among children in South Africa and globally. OBJECTIVE To determine the factors influencing the outcomes of severely injured children in a South African context. METHODS A retrospective study on factors influencing mortality in a paediatric cohort (≤ 14 years) admitted to the intensive care units of two hospitals in Gauteng, South Africa, from 1 January 2006 to 31 December 2013 after suffering major trauma (ISS>10). RESULTS The total cohort (n=166) consisted of public (n=125) and private (n=41) cohorts with actual death 15.7% (n=26) of the total cohort. There was a significant difference in probability of survival in survivors (92%) versus deaths (82%) (p=0.004). Factors that influenced the risk of mortality included time spent in the paediatric ICU [odds ratio of 0.706 (95% CI, 0.544- 0.915)] and whether a patient received public or private care [odds ratio of 5.43 (95% CI, 1.178-25.012)]. Both the Injury Severity Score (p=0.004) and Revised Trauma Score (p=0.034) systems played a significant role in the ability to predict mortality. CONCLUSION The outcome of severe paediatric trauma is influenced by multiple factors. The strongest predictors of mortality according to this study are time spent in PICU and the private health sector; numerous limitations of this study require replication with much larger data sets using paediatric specific trauma outcome scores.LG201

The severity and spatial pattern mapping of crashes and safety performance evaluation of two-way two-lane rural roads geometric design: a case of Oromia, Ethiopia

The dissertation included three scientific studies. Data from the respective offices on crashes, traffic and the geometric design of roads were obtained. To examine the spatial patterns of Crashes and identify crash hotspots in Ethiopia, the spatial autocorrelation of crashes and Getis-Ord-Gi* statistics in ArcGIS were used. Moreover, the Crash Prediction Model of the Highway Safety Manual and Interactive Highway Safety Design Model has been exploited to evaluate the safety performance of rural roads and quantify the safety effects of road design improvements made to existing roadsDie Dissertation umfasste drei wissenschaftliche Studien. Von den zuständigen Ämtern wurden Daten über Unfälle, Verkehr und die geometrische Gestaltung von Straßen eingeholt. Um die räumlichen Muster von Unfällen zu untersuchen und Unfallschwerpunkte in Äthiopien zu identifizieren, wurde ArcGIS verwendet. Das Crash Prediction Model des Highway Safety Manual und das Interactive Highway Safety Design Model wurden genutzt, um die Sicherheit ländlicher Straßen zu bewerten und die Sicherheitsauswirkungen von Verbesserungen der Straßengestaltung bestehender Straßen zu quantifizieren

Retrospective analysis of blunt force trauma associated with fatal road traffic accidents in Cape Town (South Africa) over a two-year period

Road transportation systems are a global developmental achievement. However, with them comes increased morbidity and mortality rates in the form of road traffic accidents. In South Africa, there is a need to characterize road traffic accidents and the injuries associated with them, to determine the preventative mechanisms required to reduce their morbidity and mortality rates. A brief review of fatal road traffic accidents from a global perspective is presented, highlighting the current literature surrounding the prevalence, demographics and blunt force trauma injuries associated with road traffic accidents in South Africa. There is limited research regarding the prevalence and characteristics of road traffic accidents. The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence of fatal road traffic accidents, necessitating the need for research, particularly at the regional level. A retrospective analysis was therefore conducted of all fatal road traffic accident related deaths autopsied at Salt River Mortuary (which services the West Metropole region of Cape Town, South Africa) from January 1st , 2013 to December 31st , 2014. The mean prevalence of road traffic accidents for the reviewed period was 15.9 / 100 000 population. The majority of road traffic accident victims were males who fell in the age group of 30 – 49 years. Over the two-year period, the majority of road traffic accident victims were pedestrians with elevated blood alcohol concentration levels. The head and facial regions of victims commonly exhibited external injuries, while the majority of fractures and organ injury were seen in the head and chest regions. There are limited studies which have investigated the blunt force trauma injuries associated with road traffic accidents in South Africa, and there is a need for further research. Interventions are of paramount importance to decrease fatal road traffic accidents, particularly amongst pedestrians as a road user. This study presents recent data on road traffic accidents for the West Metropole region of Cape Town (South Africa)

Application of the IRAP Method Combined with GIS to Improve Road Safety on New Highway Projects in Algeria

This article aims to proactively predict high-risk accident areas in a new highway project in terms of its technical and geometric characteristics. The purpose of this study is to provide road project managers with better road safety assessment tools for the vehicle occupant category. The methodology used combines the International Road Assessment Program (IRAP) methodology and the Geographic Information System (GIS). The IRAP program enables the calculation and classification of risks for each 100-meter segment besides their categorization using a star rating; whereas, the GIS is used to map the risks and identify high-risk accident segments. This method was applied to a new highway project of 110 hectometres located in GHAZAOUET in Algeria. The results of the study revealed that this combined method is innovative in more than one way as it is an effective decision-making aid tool for road safety experts. It, therefore, makes it possible to target accident-prone sections in a faster way before carrying out on site road safety inspections. Technically speaking, this study shows that the existence of closely curved radii mixed at traffic speeds exceeding 80 km/h and the presence of road exits are the main factors affecting the safety of vehicle occupants. Speed control; thus, remains one among the cheapest measures to improve safety

Urban planning approach for improvement of road safety in suburban arterial roads of Bloemfontein city, South Africa

Thesis (M. Tech. (Civil Engineering)) -- Central University of Technology, free State, 2013According to the Road Traffic Management Corporation (RTMC) of South Africa, a large number of accidents involving motor vehicles occur annually on the arterial roads passing through the suburban residential areas of the cities of South Africa. This problem warrants planning and design interventions for the reduction of vehicular accidents and the consequent improvement of road safety on these city roads. Based on this premise, an investigation was conducted to explore the major causes of vehicular accidents, and to develop a set of urban planning and design guidelines to reduce vehicular accidents in suburban arterial roads of a city and to improve the road safety appreciably. The investigation was conducted by considering the suburban areas of Bloemfontein city of Free State, South Africa as the study area. A survey research methodology was followed for this purpose, and data was collected from both primary and secondary sources. Sample surveys were conducted in four different suburban areas of the city to collect primary data and to acquire firsthand information for understanding the scenario at grassroots level. The surveys included household surveys, in order to understand the demographic, socio-economic, and perceptual infrastructural conditions of the study area and their influence on vehicular accidents; road geometrical design parameter surveys; and traffic surveys to understand the road geometry and traffic-related scenarios in the city. In addition, structured statistical data was collected from secondary sources, such as published and unpublished literature and a range of other documents. The data collected was analysed statistically to find the major control parameters influencing vehicular accidents in the suburban arterial roads, and to establish relationships between vehicular accidents and the major control parameters. Based on the analyses, a theoretical linear multiple regression model establishing relationships between the vehicular accidents as the dependent variable and vehicular traffic-related variables (speed of vehicles and average daily traffic), road geometry design variables (road width and median width), and spatial variables (land use and land form in the form of the number of access points from residential areas to arterial routes), was developed to observe the number of accidents under varied simulated scenarios. The simulated model results were employed to develop various policy scenarios to reduce accidents and to improve road safety in the study area. The investigation revealed that, under the composite scenario of the reduction of number of accesses from residential areas to arterial roads, speed, and average daily traffic along with the increase of road width and median width, the occurrence of vehicular accidents in the arterial roads of suburban areas of the city would be reduced and road safety would be improved significantly. It was also observed that residential areas with limited vehicular access from residential areas to arterial roads would have fewer vehicular accidents than residential areas having unrestricted access. Consequently, the number of access points from residential areas to arterial roads in suburban areas of the city would need to be limited, depending on the functions and land use of the area, to improve road safety

Road traffic crash fatalities: An examination of national fatality rates and factors associated with the variation in fatality rates between nations with reference to the World Health Organisation Decade of Action for Road Safety 2011 - 2020

The decade 2011 – 2020 has been declared the Decade of Action for Road safety by the World Health Organisation (WHO). The WHO has published baseline road traffic crash (RTC) fatality data for all member nations. The WHO has also suggested five Pillars of Action, mechanisms that may be instigated at the national level within the decade to halt or reduce the national RTC fatality toll. This thesis demonstrates that the some of the baseline data published by the WHO and derived from RTC reports compiled by national police forces may not best reflect the number of RTC deaths within each nation. Moreover, this data may not be directly comparable between nations due to definitional and other issues identified. Vital registration (death certificate) data which is directly collated by the WHO may be a better measure for international comparative work. Contrary to some previous studies, no significant association was found between the level of national economic development (in terms of per capita Gross National Income (GNI)) and health-derived RTC fatality rates for the year 2002. In multiple regression analysis of factors associated with GNI and presumed causal in the international variation in RTC fatality rates, exposure to risk of crash, percent of the vehicle population which are 2- or 3-wheeled, percent of the population aged 15 – 24 years, per capita alcohol consumption and health spend as a percent of GDP were all significantly associated with RTC fatality rate. No evidence was found to support WHO Pillar 4 in that road user behaviour modification via enactment and enforcement of road safety legislation was not significantly associated with the variation in RTC fatality rate. The demographic and cultural factors identified may not be amenable to modification. This has implications for the globalisation of remedial actions as proposed by the WHO