DC-Prophet: Predicting Catastrophic Machine Failures in DataCenters

When will a server fail catastrophically in an industrial datacenter? Is it possible to forecast these failures so preventive actions can be taken to increase the reliability of a datacenter? To answer these questions, we have studied what are probably the largest, publicly available datacenter traces, containing more than 104 million events from 12,500 machines. Among these samples, we observe and categorize three types of machine failures, all of which are catastrophic and may lead to information loss, or even worse, reliability degradation of a datacenter. We further propose a two-stage framework-DC-Prophet-based on One-Class Support Vector Machine and Random Forest. DC-Prophet extracts surprising patterns and accurately predicts the next failure of a machine. Experimental results show that DC-Prophet achieves an AUC of 0.93 in predicting the next machine failure, and a F3-score of 0.88 (out of 1). On average, DC-Prophet outperforms other classical machine learning methods by 39.45% in F3-score.Comment: 13 pages, 5 figures, accepted by 2017 ECML PKD

Jeeva: Enterprise Grid-enabled Web Portal for Protein Secondary Structure Prediction

This paper presents a Grid portal for protein secondary structure prediction developed by using services of Aneka, a .NET-based enterprise Grid technology. The portal is used by research scientists to discover new prediction structures in a parallel manner. An SVM (Support Vector Machine)-based prediction algorithm is used with 64 sample protein sequences as a case study to demonstrate the potential of enterprise Grids.Comment: 7 page

Proactive cloud management for highly heterogeneous multi-cloud infrastructures

Various literature studies demonstrated that the cloud computing paradigm can help to improve availability and performance of applications subject to the problem of software anomalies. Indeed, the cloud resource provisioning model enables users to rapidly access new processing resources, even distributed over different geographical regions, that can be promptly used in the case of, e.g., crashes or hangs of running machines, as well as to balance the load in the case of overloaded machines. Nevertheless, managing a complex geographically-distributed cloud deploy could be a complex and time-consuming task. Autonomic Cloud Manager (ACM) Framework is an autonomic framework for supporting proactive management of applications deployed over multiple cloud regions. It uses machine learning models to predict failures of virtual machines and to proactively redirect the load to healthy machines/cloud regions. In this paper, we study different policies to perform efficient proactive load balancing across cloud regions in order to mitigate the effect of software anomalies. These policies use predictions about the mean time to failure of virtual machines. We consider the case of heterogeneous cloud regions, i.e regions with different amount of resources, and we provide an experimental assessment of these policies in the context of ACM Framework

Predictive Maintenance on the Machining Process and Machine Tool

This paper presents the process required to implement a data driven Predictive Maintenance (PdM) not only in the machine decision making, but also in data acquisition and processing. A short review of the different approaches and techniques in maintenance is given. The main contribution of this paper is a solution for the predictive maintenance problem in a real machining process. Several steps are needed to reach the solution, which are carefully explained. The obtained results show that the Preventive Maintenance (PM), which was carried out in a real machining process, could be changed into a PdM approach. A decision making application was developed to provide a visual analysis of the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of the machining tool. This work is a proof of concept of the methodology presented in one process, but replicable for most of the process for serial productions of pieces

Modeling Financial Time Series with Artificial Neural Networks

Financial time series convey the decisions and actions of a population of human actors over time. Econometric and regressive models have been developed in the past decades for analyzing these time series. More recently, biologically inspired artificial neural network models have been shown to overcome some of the main challenges of traditional techniques by better exploiting the non-linear, non-stationary, and oscillatory nature of noisy, chaotic human interactions. This review paper explores the options, benefits, and weaknesses of the various forms of artificial neural networks as compared with regression techniques in the field of financial time series analysis.CELEST, a National Science Foundation Science of Learning Center (SBE-0354378); SyNAPSE program of the Defense Advanced Research Project Agency (HR001109-03-0001

Tiresias: Predicting Security Events Through Deep Learning

With the increased complexity of modern computer attacks, there is a need for defenders not only to detect malicious activity as it happens, but also to predict the specific steps that will be taken by an adversary when performing an attack. However this is still an open research problem, and previous research in predicting malicious events only looked at binary outcomes (e.g., whether an attack would happen or not), but not at the specific steps that an attacker would undertake. To fill this gap we present Tiresias, a system that leverages Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) to predict future events on a machine, based on previous observations. We test Tiresias on a dataset of 3.4 billion security events collected from a commercial intrusion prevention system, and show that our approach is effective in predicting the next event that will occur on a machine with a precision of up to 0.93. We also show that the models learned by Tiresias are reasonably stable over time, and provide a mechanism that can identify sudden drops in precision and trigger a retraining of the system. Finally, we show that the long-term memory typical of RNNs is key in performing event prediction, rendering simpler methods not up to the task