Heuristics and biases in cardiovascular disease prevention:How can we improve communication about risk, benefits and harms?

Objective Cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention guidelines recommend medication based on the probability of a heart attack/stroke in the next 5–10 years. However, heuristics and biases make risk communication challenging for doctors. This study explored how patients interpret personalised CVD risk results presented in varying formats and timeframes. Methods GPs recruited 25 patients with CVD risk factors and varying medication history. Participants were asked to ‘think aloud’ while using two CVD risk calculators that present probabilistic risk in different ways, within a semi-structured interview. Transcribed audio-recordings were coded using Framework Analysis. Results Key themes were: 1) numbers lack meaning without a reference point; 2) risk results need to be both credible and novel; 3) selective attention to intervention effects. Risk categories (low/moderate/high) provided meaningful context, but short-term risk results were not credible if they didn’t match expectations. Colour-coded icon arrays showing the effect of age and interventions were seen as novel and motivating. Those on medication focused on benefits, while others focused on harms. Conclusion CVD risk formats need to be tailored to patient expectations and experiences in order to counteract heuristics and biases. Practice implications Doctors need access to multiple CVD risk formats to communicate effectively about CVD prevention

Post-Westgate SWAT : C4ISTAR Architectural Framework for Autonomous Network Integrated Multifaceted Warfighting Solutions Version 1.0 : A Peer-Reviewed Monograph

Police SWAT teams and Military Special Forces face mounting pressure and challenges from adversaries that can only be resolved by way of ever more sophisticated inputs into tactical operations. Lethal Autonomy provides constrained military/security forces with a viable option, but only if implementation has got proper empirically supported foundations. Autonomous weapon systems can be designed and developed to conduct ground, air and naval operations. This monograph offers some insights into the challenges of developing legal, reliable and ethical forms of autonomous weapons, that address the gap between Police or Law Enforcement and Military operations that is growing exponentially small. National adversaries are today in many instances hybrid threats, that manifest criminal and military traits, these often require deployment of hybrid-capability autonomous weapons imbued with the capability to taken on both Military and/or Security objectives. The Westgate Terrorist Attack of 21st September 2013 in the Westlands suburb of Nairobi, Kenya is a very clear manifestation of the hybrid combat scenario that required military response and police investigations against a fighting cell of the Somalia based globally networked Al Shabaab terrorist group.Comment: 52 pages, 6 Figures, over 40 references, reviewed by a reade

Programmatic and Direct Manipulation, Together at Last

Direct manipulation interfaces and programmatic systems have distinct and complementary strengths. The former provide intuitive, immediate visual feedback and enable rapid prototyping, whereas the latter enable complex, reusable abstractions. Unfortunately, existing systems typically force users into just one of these two interaction modes. We present a system called Sketch-n-Sketch that integrates programmatic and direct manipulation for the particular domain of Scalable Vector Graphics (SVG). In Sketch-n-Sketch, the user writes a program to generate an output SVG canvas. Then the user may directly manipulate the canvas while the system immediately infers a program update in order to match the changes to the output, a workflow we call live synchronization. To achieve this, we propose (i) a technique called trace-based program synthesis that takes program execution history into account in order to constrain the search space and (ii) heuristics for dealing with ambiguities. Based on our experience with examples spanning 2,000 lines of code and from the results of a preliminary user study, we believe that Sketch-n-Sketch provides a novel workflow that can augment traditional programming systems. Our approach may serve as the basis for live synchronization in other application domains, as well as a starting point for yet more ambitious ways of combining programmatic and direct manipulation.Comment: PLDI 2016 Paper + Supplementary Appendice

Exploration of Reaction Pathways and Chemical Transformation Networks

For the investigation of chemical reaction networks, the identification of all relevant intermediates and elementary reactions is mandatory. Many algorithmic approaches exist that perform explorations efficiently and automatedly. These approaches differ in their application range, the level of completeness of the exploration, as well as the amount of heuristics and human intervention required. Here, we describe and compare the different approaches based on these criteria. Future directions leveraging the strengths of chemical heuristics, human interaction, and physical rigor are discussed.Comment: 48 pages, 4 figure

Can nudge-interventions address health service overuse and underuse? Protocol for a systematic review

IntroductionNudge-interventions aimed at health professionals are proposed to reduce the overuse and underuse of health services. However, little is known about their effectiveness at changing health professionals’ behaviours in relation to overuse or underuse of tests or treatments.ObjectiveThe aim of this study is to systematically identify and synthesise the studies that have assessed the effect of nudge-interventions aimed at health professionals on the overuse or underuse of health services.Methods and analysisWe will perform a systematic review. All study designs that include a control comparison will be included. Any qualified health professional, across any specialty or setting, will be included. Only nudge-interventions aimed at altering the behaviour of health professionals will be included. We will examine the effect of choice architecture nudges (default options, active choice, framing effects, order effects) and social nudges (accountable justification and pre-commitment or publicly declared pledge/contract). Studies with outcomes relevant to overuse or underuse of health services will be included. Relevant studies will be identified by a computer-aided search of the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (The Cochrane Library), MEDLINE, CINAHL, Embase and PsycINFO databases. Two independent reviewers will screen studies for eligibility, extract data and perform the risk of bias assessment using the criteria recommended by the Cochrane Effective Practice and Organisation of Care (EPOC) group. We will report our results in a structured synthesis format, as recommended by the Cochrane EPOC group.Ethics and disseminationNo ethical approval is required for this study. Results will be presented at relevant scientific conferences and in peer-reviewed literature

Fünf evidenzbasierte Heuristiken für den Einsatz von Video in der universitären Lehrerausbildung

This article provides a research synthesis on the use of video in pre-service teacher education. Common ideas and evidences concerning the use of video in pre-service teacher education are reviewed. Based on the state-of-the-art in using video, five research-based heuristics are derived. Research findings of a number of studies are further used to illustrate the specification of heuristics. Specifically, a set of rules of thumb about when, how, and why to use video is presented to clarify the strengths and limitations of video as a medium to support pre-service teacher learning. (DIPF/Orig.)Der Beitrag liefert eine Forschungssynthese zur Nutzung von Video in der universitären Lehrerausbildung. Die Forschung wird dahingehend zusammengefasst, welche Ideen derzeit verfolgt werden und welche Evidenzen zur Nutzung von Video vorliegen. Basierend auf dem Forschungsstand leiten die Autoren fünf forschungsbasierte Heuristiken zum Einsatz von Video ab. Die Forschungsergebnisse einer Reihe ausgewählter Studien werden genutzt, um die Heuristiken weiter zu spezifizieren. Es werden Erfahrungsregeln vorgestellt, wann, wie und warum Video in der universitären Lehrerbildung eingesetzt werden kann. Die Erfahrungsregeln sollen helfen, Stärken und Schwächen von Video als ein Medium zur Unterstützung des Lernens von Lehramtsstudierenden zu klären. (DIPF/Orig.

Maps of Bounded Rationality

The work cited by the Nobel committee was done jointly with the late Amos Tversky (1937-1996) during a long and unusually close collaboration. Together, we explored the psychology of intuitive beliefs and choices and examined their bounded rationality. This essay presents a current perspective on the three major topics of our joint work: heuristics of judgment, risky choice, and framing effects. In all three domains we studied intuitions - thoughts and preferences that come to mind quickly and without much reflection. I review the older research and some recent developments in light of two ideas that have become central to social-cognitive psychology in the intervening decades: the notion that thoughts differ in a dimension of accessibility - some come to mind much more easily than others - and the distinction between intuitive and deliberate thought processes.behavioral economics; experimental economics