Modelling and optimisation of resource usage in an IoT enabled smart campus

University campuses are essentially a microcosm of a city. They comprise diverse facilities such as residences, sport centres, lecture theatres, parking spaces, and public transport stops. Universities are under constant pressure to improve efficiencies while offering a better experience to various stakeholders including students, staff, and visitors. Nonetheless, anecdotal evidence indicates that campus assets are not being utilized efficiently, often due to the lack of data collection and analysis, thereby limiting the ability to make informed decisions on the allocation and management of resources. Advances in the Internet of Things (IoT) technologies that can sense and communicate data from the physical world, coupled with data analytics and Artificial intelligence (AI) that can predict usage patterns, have opened up new opportunities for organizations to lower cost and improve user experience. This thesis explores this opportunity via theory and experimentation using UNSW Sydney as a living laboratory. The building blocks of this thesis consist of three pillars of execution, namely, IoT deployment, predictive modelling, and optimization. Together, these components create an end-to-end framework that provides informed decisions to estate manager in regards to the optimal allocation of campus resources. The main contributions of this thesis are three application domains, which lies on top of the execution pillars, defining campus resources as classrooms, car parks, and transit buses. Specifically, our contributions are: i) We evaluate several IoT occupancy sensing technologies and instrument 9 lecture halls of varying capacities with the most appropriate sensing solution. The collected data provides us with insights into attendance patterns, such as cancelled lectures and class tests, of over 250 courses. We then develop predictive models using machine learning algorithms and quantile regression technique to predict future attendance patterns. Finally, we propose an intelligent optimisation model that allows allocations of classes to rooms based on the dynamics of predicted attendance as opposed to static enrolment number. We show that the data-driven assignment of classroom resources can achieve a potential saving in room cost of over 10\% over the course of a semester, while incurring a very low risk of disrupting student experience due to classroom overflow; ii) We instrument a car park with IoT sensors for real-time monitoring of parking demand and comprehensively analyse the usage data spanning over 15 months. We then develop machine learning models to forecast future parking demand at multiple forecast horizons ranging from 1 day to 10 weeks, our models achieve a mean absolute error (MAE) of 4.58 cars per hour. Finally, we propose a novel optimal allocation framework that allows campus manager to re-dimension the car park to accommodate new paradigms of car use while minimizing the risk of rejecting users and maintaining a certain level of revenue from the parking infrastructure; iii) We develop sensing technology for measuring an outdoor orderly queue using ultrasonic sensor and LoRaWAN, and deploy the solution at an on campus bus stop. Our solution yields a reasonable accuracy with MAE of 10.7 people for detecting a queue length of up to 100 people. We then develop an optimisation model to reschedule bus dispatch times based on the actual dynamics of passenger demand. The result suggests that a potential wait time reduction of 42.93% can be achieved with demand-driven bus scheduling. Taken together, our contributions demonstrates that there are significant resource efficiency gains to be realised in a smart-campus that employs IoT sensing coupled with predictive modelling and dynamic optimisation algorithms

Modelling and optimisation of resource usage in an IoT enabled smart campus

University campuses are essentially a microcosm of a city. They comprise diverse facilities such as residences, sport centres, lecture theatres, parking spaces, and public transport stops. Universities are under constant pressure to improve efficiencies while offering a better experience to various stakeholders including students, staff, and visitors. Nonetheless, anecdotal evidence indicates that campus assets are not being utilized efficiently, often due to the lack of data collection and analysis, thereby limiting the ability to make informed decisions on the allocation and management of resources. Advances in the Internet of Things (IoT) technologies that can sense and communicate data from the physical world, coupled with data analytics and Artificial intelligence (AI) that can predict usage patterns, have opened up new opportunities for organizations to lower cost and improve user experience. This thesis explores this opportunity via theory and experimentation using UNSW Sydney as a living laboratory. The building blocks of this thesis consist of three pillars of execution, namely, IoT deployment, predictive modelling, and optimization. Together, these components create an end-to-end framework that provides informed decisions to estate manager in regards to the optimal allocation of campus resources. The main contributions of this thesis are three application domains, which lies on top of the execution pillars, defining campus resources as classrooms, car parks, and transit buses. Specifically, our contributions are: i) We evaluate several IoT occupancy sensing technologies and instrument 9 lecture halls of varying capacities with the most appropriate sensing solution. The collected data provides us with insights into attendance patterns, such as cancelled lectures and class tests, of over 250 courses. We then develop predictive models using machine learning algorithms and quantile regression technique to predict future attendance patterns. Finally, we propose an intelligent optimisation model that allows allocations of classes to rooms based on the dynamics of predicted attendance as opposed to static enrolment number. We show that the data-driven assignment of classroom resources can achieve a potential saving in room cost of over 10\% over the course of a semester, while incurring a very low risk of disrupting student experience due to classroom overflow; ii) We instrument a car park with IoT sensors for real-time monitoring of parking demand and comprehensively analyse the usage data spanning over 15 months. We then develop machine learning models to forecast future parking demand at multiple forecast horizons ranging from 1 day to 10 weeks, our models achieve a mean absolute error (MAE) of 4.58 cars per hour. Finally, we propose a novel optimal allocation framework that allows campus manager to re-dimension the car park to accommodate new paradigms of car use while minimizing the risk of rejecting users and maintaining a certain level of revenue from the parking infrastructure; iii) We develop sensing technology for measuring an outdoor orderly queue using ultrasonic sensor and LoRaWAN, and deploy the solution at an on campus bus stop. Our solution yields a reasonable accuracy with MAE of 10.7 people for detecting a queue length of up to 100 people. We then develop an optimisation model to reschedule bus dispatch times based on the actual dynamics of passenger demand. The result suggests that a potential wait time reduction of 42.93% can be achieved with demand-driven bus scheduling. Taken together, our contributions demonstrates that there are significant resource efficiency gains to be realised in a smart-campus that employs IoT sensing coupled with predictive modelling and dynamic optimisation algorithms

Optimization and Technology-Based Strategies to Improve Public Transit Performance Accounting for Demand Distribution

Public transit is important to societies worldwide. The operation of public transit systems is generally associated with great benefits for the users, but there are also cases in which these systems demonstrate inefficient performance. Quantifying transit performance is an important area of research over the last decades. This dissertation presents models to improve transit system performance through optimization techniques and new technologies, recognizing the effects of non-uniform distribution of demand over space and time. The contributions span fixed route transit services and on-demand transit, as well as models for flexible transit operations that lie in between. Regarding fixed route systems, a methodology is proposed to estimate the number of passengers being left-behind subway train vehicles due to overcrowding. Methods to identify appropriate time periods and locations for studying this phenomenon are presented. The effects of overcrowding on passenger waiting times are also investigated. The challenging case of transit networks where passengers tap-in only upon entrance is analyzed, adding a new methodology to a very short list of similar studies and enhancing previous work in this field. For demand responsive systems, this dissertation focuses on optimizing the operation of paratransit services through coordination with alternative providers in order to decrease high operating costs of such a service. The analysis includes a heuristic-based method. The proposed model is more detailed than existing aggregated methods and is able to perform well in high demand levels, unlike existing exact approaches. This part of the dissertation also assists in making transportation network companies a complementary part of public transit, rather than a competitor. Finally, flexible transit systems are studied to identify the operational and demand related characteristics of a service area that could serve as indicators of such systems\u27 efficient performance. The focus here is on route deviation flexible services. Continuous approximation is used to model this flexible system. A new optimized hybrid transit system with elements of both fixed route and flexible services is proposed. Finally, it is highlighted that the current COVID-19 pandemic has proven the need for public transit systems that could be adjusted to accommodate changes in transit demand

Multi-resolution Modeling of Dynamic Signal Control on Urban Streets

Dynamic signal control provides significant benefits in terms of travel time, travel time reliability, and other performance measures of transportation systems. The goal of this research is to develop and evaluate a methodology to support the planning for operations of dynamic signal control utilizing a multi-resolution analysis approach. The multi-resolution analysis modeling combines analysis, modeling, and simulation (AMS) tools to support the assessment of the impacts of dynamic traffic signal control. Dynamic signal control strategies are effective in relieving congestions during non-typical days, such as those with high demands, incidents with different attributes, and adverse weather conditions. This research recognizes the need to model the impacts of dynamic signal controls for different days representing, different demand and incident levels. Methods are identified to calibrate the utilized tools for the patterns during different days based on demands and incident conditions utilizing combinations of real-world data with different levels of details. A significant challenge addressed in this study is to ensure that the mesoscopic simulation-based dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) models produces turning movement volumes at signalized intersections with sufficient accuracy for the purpose of the analysis. Although, an important aspect when modeling incident responsive signal control is to determine the capacity impacts of incidents considering the interaction between the drop in capacity below demands at the midblock urban street segment location and the upstream and downstream signalized intersection operations. A new model is developed to estimate the drop in capacity at the incident location by considering the downstream signal control queue spillback effects. A second model is developed to estimate the reduction in the upstream intersection capacity due to the drop in capacity at the midblock incident location as estimated by the first model. These developed models are used as part of a mesoscopic simulation-based DTA modeling to set the capacity during incident conditions, when such modeling is used to estimate the diversion during incidents. To supplement the DTA-based analysis, regression models are developed to estimate the diversion rate due to urban street incidents based on real-world data. These regression models are combined with the DTA model to estimate the volume at the incident location and alternative routes. The volumes with different demands and incident levels, resulting from DTA modeling are imported to a microscopic simulation model for more detailed analysis of dynamic signal control. The microscopic model shows that the implementation of special signal plans during incidents and different demand levels can improve mobility measures

iCity. Transformative Research for the Livable, Intelligent, and Sustainable City

This open access book presents the exciting research results of the BMBF funded project iCity carried out at University of Applied Science Stuttgart to help cities to become more liveable, intelligent and sustainable, to become a LIScity. The research has been pursued with industry partners and NGOs from 2017 to 2020. A LIScity is increasingly digitally networked, uses resources efficiently, and implements intelligent mobility concepts. It guarantees the supply of its grid-bound infrastructure with a high proportion of renewable energy. Intelligent cities are increasingly human-centered, integrative, and flexible, thus placing the well-being of the citizens at the center of developments to increase the quality of life. The articles in this book cover research aimed to meet these criteria. The book covers research in the fields of energy (i.e. algorithms for heating and energy storage systems, simulation programs for thermal local heating supply, runtime optimization of combined heat and power (CHP), natural ventilation), mobility (i.e. charging distribution and deep learning, innovative emission-friendly mobility, routing apps, zero-emission urban logistics, augmented reality, artificial intelligence for individual route planning, mobility behavior), information platforms (i.e. 3DCity models in city planning: sunny places visualization, augmented reality for windy cities, internet of things (IoT) monitoring to visualize device performance, storing and visualizing dynamic energy data of smart cities), and buildings and city planning (i.e. sound insulation of sustainable facades and balconies, multi-camera mobile systems for inspection of tunnels, building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) as active façade elements, common space, the building envelopes potential in smart sustainable cities)

Multi-resolution Modeling of Dynamic Signal Control on Urban Streets

Dynamic signal control provides significant benefits in terms of travel time, travel time reliability, and other performance measures of transportation systems. The goal of this research is to develop and evaluate a methodology to support the planning for operations of dynamic signal control utilizing a multi-resolution analysis approach. The multi-resolution analysis modeling combines analysis, modeling, and simulation (AMS) tools to support the assessment of the impacts of dynamic traffic signal control. Dynamic signal control strategies are effective in relieving congestions during non-typical days, such as those with high demands, incidents with different attributes, and adverse weather conditions. This research recognizes the need to model the impacts of dynamic signal controls for different days representing, different demand and incident levels. Methods are identified to calibrate the utilized tools for the patterns during different days based on demands and incident conditions utilizing combinations of real-world data with different levels of details. A significant challenge addressed in this study is to ensure that the mesoscopic simulation-based dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) models produces turning movement volumes at signalized intersections with sufficient accuracy for the purpose of the analysis. Although, an important aspect when modeling incident responsive signal control is to determine the capacity impacts of incidents considering the interaction between the drop in capacity below demands at the midblock urban street segment location and the upstream and downstream signalized intersection operations. A new model is developed to estimate the drop in capacity at the incident location by considering the downstream signal control queue spillback effects. A second model is developed to estimate the reduction in the upstream intersection capacity due to the drop in capacity at the midblock incident location as estimated by the first model. These developed models are used as part of a mesoscopic simulation-based DTA modeling to set the capacity during incident conditions, when such modeling is used to estimate the diversion during incidents. To supplement the DTA-based analysis, regression models are developed to estimate the diversion rate due to urban street incidents based on real-world data. These regression models are combined with the DTA model to estimate the volume at the incident location and alternative routes. The volumes with different demands and incident levels, resulting from DTA modeling are imported to a microscopic simulation model for more detailed analysis of dynamic signal control. The microscopic model shows that the implementation of special signal plans during incidents and different demand levels can improve mobility measures

Exploring the relationship between intelligent transport system capability and business agility within the Bus Rapid Transit in South Africa

Abstract: More than 65% of South Africans use public transportation to access educational, business, and financial activity. Mobility of individuals and products, particularly in metropolitan areas, suffers from delays, unreliability, absence of safety and air pollution. On the other hand, mobility demand is increasing quicker than South Africa's accessible infrastructure. Public transport services are poor in general, but this picture is transforming a high-quality mass transit system using high-capacity buses along dedicated bus lanes by implementing the Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system. The BRT system appeared as the leading mode of urban passenger transit in the first decade of the twenty-first century after a few pioneering applications in the later portion of the twentieth century. In addition, Intelligent Transport System’s (ITS) advantages motivate both advanced and developing nations, such as South Africa, to invest in these techniques rather than spending enormous quantities on expanding the transportation network. Various stakeholders in government, academia and industry are in the process of presenting a shared vision of this new strategy and first practical steps should be taken towards this objective. Intelligent transport system capacity can provide better and more inclusive public transportation facilities to commuters through enhanced reliability and accessibility; to operators through efficiency gains; and to customers and operators in terms of cost-effectiveness and service provision affordability. International experience shows that capacities of the ITS can boost transportation profits by as much as 10-15%...D.Phil. (Engineering Management

Evaluating the mobility and safety benefits of adaptive signal control technology (ASCT)

The Adaptive Signal Control Technology (ASCT) is a traffic management strategy that optimizes signal timing based on real-time traffic demand. This thesis proposes a comprehensive methodology of quantifying the mobility and safety benefits of the ASCT deployed in the state of Florida. A Bayesian switch-point regression model was proposed to evaluate the mobility benefits of ASCT. The analysis was based on a 3.3-mile corridor along Mayport Road from Atlantic Boulevard to Wonderwood Drive in Jacksonville, Florida. The proposed analysis was used to estimate the possible dates that separate the two operating characteristics, i.e., with and without ASCT. Also, the posterior estimated distributions were used for the Bayesian hypothesis test to investigate if there is a significant difference in the operating characteristics for two scenarios - with and without ASCT. The results revealed that ASCT increases travel speeds by 4% in typical days of the week (Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday) in the northbound direction. However, the implementation of ASCT did not yield a significant increase in travel speed in the southbound direction. In addition, ASCT exhibited more benefits in AM peak in the northbound direction indicating a 7% increase in travel speeds. A Bayesian hypothesis test revealed that there is a significant difference in the operating characteristics between scenarios with and without ASCT. Moreover, an observational before-after Empirical Bayes (EB) with a comparison-group approach was adopted to develop the Crash Modification Factors (CMFs) for certain crash types (total and rear-end crashes) and crash severity levels (fatalities and injury crashes). The CMFs developed were used to quantify the safety benefits of the ASCT. The analysis was based on 42 treatment intersections with ASCT and their corresponding 47 comparison intersections without ASCT. Florida-specific Safety Performance Functions (SPFs) for total and rear-end crashes and for fatal plus injury crashes were also developed. The deployment of ASCT was found to reduce total crashes and rear-end crashes by 5.2% (CMF = 0.948) and 10.6% (CMF = 0.894), respectively. On the other hand, fatal plus injury crashes and PDO crashes were reduced by 6.1% (CMF = 0.939) and 5.4% (CMF = 0.946), respectively, after the ASCT deployment. The CMFs for total crashes and rear-end crashes, and for fatal plus injury crashes and PDO crashes were found to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level. These findings provide researchers and practitioners with an effective means for quantifying the mobility and safety benefits of ASCT, economic appraisal of the ASCT as well as a key consideration to transportation agencies for future ASCT deployment in the state

iCity. Transformative Research for the Livable, Intelligent, and Sustainable City

This open access book presents the exciting research results of the BMBF funded project iCity carried out at University of Applied Science Stuttgart to help cities to become more liveable, intelligent and sustainable, to become a LIScity. The research has been pursued with industry partners and NGOs from 2017 to 2020. A LIScity is increasingly digitally networked, uses resources efficiently, and implements intelligent mobility concepts. It guarantees the supply of its grid-bound infrastructure with a high proportion of renewable energy. Intelligent cities are increasingly human-centered, integrative, and flexible, thus placing the well-being of the citizens at the center of developments to increase the quality of life. The articles in this book cover research aimed to meet these criteria. The book covers research in the fields of energy (i.e. algorithms for heating and energy storage systems, simulation programs for thermal local heating supply, runtime optimization of combined heat and power (CHP), natural ventilation), mobility (i.e. charging distribution and deep learning, innovative emission-friendly mobility, routing apps, zero-emission urban logistics, augmented reality, artificial intelligence for individual route planning, mobility behavior), information platforms (i.e. 3DCity models in city planning: sunny places visualization, augmented reality for windy cities, internet of things (IoT) monitoring to visualize device performance, storing and visualizing dynamic energy data of smart cities), and buildings and city planning (i.e. sound insulation of sustainable facades and balconies, multi-camera mobile systems for inspection of tunnels, building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) as active façade elements, common space, the building envelopes potential in smart sustainable cities)